Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 03:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (02:38 UTC - 03:08 UTC, February 12)

Kyiv Missile Attack Aftermath (EXTREME PRIORITY)

• Fires in Multiple Districts (CONFIRMED): Multiple sources (Klychko, KMVA, RBK-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU) confirm fires in Holosiivskyi, Podilskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Solomianskyi districts of Kyiv as a result of the missile attack.
  • Holosiivskyi: Debris impact and fire.
  • Podilskyi: Debris impact and fire.
  • Sviatoshynskyi: Fires on the roofs of residential buildings, including a nine-story building.
  • Solomianskyi: Fire in a non-residential building.
  • Obolonskyi: Fire in an industrial zone, with potential damage to nearby buildings.
• Emergency Services Deployed (CONFIRMED): Emergency services are responding to all affected areas.
• Casualties Unknown (PENDING): Information on casualties is still being gathered. Klychko reports no calls to medics yet from the Sviatoshynskyi district fire.
• Ballistic Missile Confirmation (CONFIRMED): Yermak (RBK-Ukraine) confirms the air defense system was engaging ballistic missiles. He also characterizes the attack as a demonstration of Putin's unwillingness to end the war.
• Assessment: The attack caused widespread damage across multiple districts of Kyiv, primarily fires. The targeting of civilian areas is a serious concern. The lack of immediate casualty reports is encouraging but preliminary.

Claims of Ukrainian Troop Losses near Kupyansk (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

• TASS (03:01 UTC): Citing military expert Andrey Marochko, reports that Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian soldiers sent as reinforcements near Kupyansk, with approximately 10 casualties and several combat vehicles destroyed.
• Assessment: Requires independent verification. This is a claim from a Russian source and should be treated with caution. It suggests continued fighting near Kupyansk and a specific Russian success in interdicting Ukrainian reinforcements.

Drone Warfare (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

• Colonelcassad (03:01): Another claim of Russian military success.
• Assessment: Video footage shows military action. Requires independent verification.

Public Sentiment Regarding General Naiev's Statement (RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

• Operatsiya Z (02:44 UTC): Reports widespread negative reaction among Ukrainians to a statement by former commander General Naiev that Ukraine could reach the 1991 borders with more Western weapons.
• Assessment: This is likely Russian propaganda designed to sow discord and undermine support for the Ukrainian military. The source, "Operatsiya Z," is known for its pro-Russian bias. While there may be some war fatigue and skepticism among the Ukrainian population, presenting this as widespread rejection of a general's statement is a manipulative tactic.

Turkish Stream Gas Supplies (UNRELATED, BUT NOTEWORTHY)

• TASS (03:03 UTC): Reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe via the Turkish Stream pipeline reached a record high last week.
• Assessment: While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, this highlights Russia's continued economic leverage over Europe through energy supplies, despite sanctions.

US Consulates May Close (UNRELATED)

• TASS (02:54 UTC): NBC reports that the U.S. State Department might close consulates due to budget reasons.

Updated Situation Summary

• MAJOR DAMAGE IN KYIV FROM BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): Confirmed fires in multiple districts, with damage to residential buildings and industrial areas. Casualty reports are still pending.
• Claimed Ukrainian Troop Losses near Kupyansk (UNCLEAR): Requires verification.
• Propaganda Campaign Targeting Ukrainian Morale (ACTIVE): Russian sources are attempting to portray widespread Ukrainian opposition to the military's goals.
• Drone Warfare: New footage surfaces.

Updated Recommendations

1. KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Continue to assess damage and casualties across all affected districts of Kyiv.
   • Provide immediate support to affected civilians, including shelter, medical care, and emergency services.
   • Gather evidence of the attack for potential war crimes investigations.
   • Continue to monitor for any further developments and potential additional attacks.
   • Disseminate accurate information to the public to counter Russian disinformation.

2. VERIFY CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES NEAR KUPYANSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Seek independent confirmation of the reported Ukrainian troop losses near Kupyansk.
   • Analyze satellite imagery and other intelligence sources to verify the claim.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Actively counter Russian propaganda attempting to portray widespread Ukrainian opposition to the military's goals.
   • Highlight the civilian impact of Russian attacks to bolster support for the war effort.
   • Promote messages of unity and resilience among the Ukrainian population.

4. All previous recommendations from 02:38 UTC and earlier remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The primary focus remains on responding to the aftermath of the Kyiv missile attack, assessing damage, and providing support to affected areas. Verification of Russian claims and countering propaganda are also high priorities.