Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 12, 2025, 02:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (02:08 UTC - 02:38 UTC, February 12)

Air Raid Alerts and Ballistic Missile Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY)

• Kyiv Air Raid Siren (CONFIRMED): КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and РБК-Україна report an air raid alert in Kyiv (02:27 UTC).
• Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Siren (CONFIRMED): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region (02:27 UTC).
• Ballistic Missile Threat (CONFIRMED): РБК-Україна reports a threat of ballistic missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia and other regions under air raid alert, citing Zaporizhzhia OVA head Ivan Fedorov (02:30 UTC). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms a ballistic missile threat from the northeast (02:31 UTC).
• Explosions in Kyiv (CONFIRMED): РБК-Україна reports explosions in Kyiv (02:31, 02:33 UTC). STERNENKO confirms a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv (02:31 UTC).
• Air Defense Activity in Kyiv (CONFIRMED): КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms air defense activity in Kyiv (02:31, 02:32 UTC). Оперативний ЗСУ also confirms air defense activity in Kyiv, citing KMVA, and reiterates the ballistic missile threat from the northeast (02:34 UTC).
• Air Defense Activity around Kyiv (CONFIRMED): Оперативний ЗСУ confirms that Air Defense is also working around Kyiv (02:36 UTC).
• Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and IMMEDIATE THREAT. The confirmed ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, coupled with air raid alerts in other regions, demands immediate action to protect civilians and critical infrastructure. The origin of the threat from the northeast is crucial information for targeting air defense assets.

Claimed Russian Military Action, Southern Front (Requires Verification)

• ТАСС (02:08 UTC): Reports that soldiers of the "South" group repelled Ukrainian attacks on a stronghold for a week and destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley fighting vehicle. (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense).
• Assessment: Requires independent verification. This is a claim from the Russian Ministry of Defense and should be treated with caution. If true, it indicates continued fighting and a specific Russian success in repelling Ukrainian attacks and destroying equipment. However, it could also be propaganda. The specific location is not given, only "Southern Front."

Russian Military Presence in Mali (UNRELATED, BUT NOTEWORTHY)

• Colonelcassad (02:24 UTC): Shows a video of a convoy of the "African Corps" of the Russian Armed Forces in Mali.
• Assessment: While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, this demonstrates Russia's continued military presence and influence in Africa, specifically Mali. The convoy suggests logistics and support activity.

Rescue Operation in Sakhalin Oblast (UNRELATED)

• ТАСС (02:21 UTC): Reports a rescue operation is underway for 300 fishermen on a detached ice floe in Sakhalin Oblast.
• Assessment: This is a civilian emergency and unrelated to the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• MAJOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK ON KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY): This is the most critical development, with confirmed explosions and air defense activity. The threat is ongoing.
• Air Raid Alerts Across Multiple Regions (EXTREME PRIORITY): Indicates a widespread threat, potentially involving multiple launch sites or a coordinated attack.
• Claimed Russian Success on Southern Front (UNCLEAR): Requires verification.
• Uspenivka Pocket Aftermath (HIGH PRIORITY): The previous report of significant Ukrainian losses in the Uspenivka Pocket remains the most significant ground-level development from earlier reports.
• Drone Warfare: All previous updates on the use of drones are reinforced.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK ON KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain active air defense systems in Kyiv and surrounding areas.
   • Assess damage and casualties from the reported explosions.
   • Provide emergency services and support to affected areas.
   • Gather intelligence on the launch site(s) and type of missiles used.
   • Issue public safety warnings and instructions to civilians.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT ACROSS ALL REGIONS UNDER AIR RAID ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain air defense readiness in all regions under air raid alert, particularly Zaporizhzhia.
   • Monitor for additional launches and provide timely warnings.
   • Prepare for potential impacts on critical infrastructure and civilian populations.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON SOUTHERN FRONT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Seek independent confirmation of the reported Ukrainian attacks and Bradley destruction.
   • Analyze satellite imagery and other intelligence sources to verify the claim.

4. URGENTLY Investigate Uspenivka Pocket Losses (HIGH PRIORITY): This remains a crucial task from previous reports. All recommendations from the 02:08 UTC report still apply.

5. All previous recommendations from 02:08 UTC and earlier remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The focus is now overwhelmingly on responding to the immediate ballistic missile threat and maintaining vigilance against further attacks.