Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (22:38 UTC - 23:08 UTC, February 11)

Drone Activity - Continued and Evolving Threat

• NEW DRONE MOVEMENTS (CONFIRMED, Ukrainian Air Force & Николаевский Ванёк):

  • 22:39 UTC: Drone north of Kirovohrad Oblast, heading towards Cherkasy Oblast (Ukrainian Air Force).
  • 22:42 UTC: Drone in southwest Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast (Ukrainian Air Force).
  • 22:51 UTC:
    • 5 drones east of Uman, moving into Kyiv Oblast (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 3 drones north of Hostomel, moving into Zhytomyr Oblast (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 2 drones still circling north of Kremenchuk (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 2 drones from Poltava Oblast moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 2 drones in north Poltava Oblast, heading west (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 2 drones passed near Konotop, heading west (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 1 drone east of Cherkasy, heading northwest (Николаевский Ванёк).
    • 2 drones south of Sumy, heading west (Николаевский Ванёк).

• AIR RAID ALERTS (CONFIRMED, РБК-Україна):

  • 22:57 UTC. Air raid alert map shows widespread alerts across Ukraine, particularly in the central, northern, and eastern regions. Confirms the EXTENSIVE DRONE THREAT.

• Assessment: The drone attack continues to evolve, with MULTIPLE WAVES AND SHIFTING DIRECTIONS. The persistent threat to Kyiv and surrounding regions is CRITICAL. The movement of drones into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is a NEW DEVELOPMENT. The large number of drones reported (at least 20 in this update) continues to strain air defenses.

Ground Combat - Novopavlovsk Direction (Significant Developments)

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, Военкор Котенок):

  • 22:48 UTC:
    • Russian forces ("Vostok" group) advanced from Velyka Novosilka towards Burlatske.
    • Attacks ongoing to breach defenses near Novosilka.
    • Increased pressure towards Novoocheretuvate, Otradne, Bohatyr, Kostiantynopil, and Ulakly.
    • Claims of heavy Ukrainian losses and potential collapse of Ukrainian defenses near Kostiantynopil.
    • Continuous attacks throughout the day.
  • 22:50 UTC: Claims of imminent fighting in Kostiantynopil ("Today-tomorrow").

• MAP ANALYSIS (Военкор Котенок):

  • The map shows arrows suggesting a potential Russian ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPT of Velyka Novosilka from the south.
  • Confirms the INTENSE FIGHTING along the boundary line north of Velyka Novosilka.

• Assessment: This indicates a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT in the Novopavlovsk direction. The claims of advances and potential Ukrainian collapse, IF CONFIRMED, represent a MAJOR SHIFT in this sector. The potential encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a SERIOUS THREAT to Ukrainian forces. The reported intensity of the fighting suggests HEAVY CASUALTIES ON BOTH SIDES.

Other Developments

• TRUMP COMMENTS ON US-RUSSIA RELATIONS (REPORTED, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны & TASS):

  • 22:54 UTC, 22:37 UTC: Trump comments on the return of US citizen Fogel from Russia, stating Russia treated the US "very well" and expressing hope for improved relations leading to a resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
  • Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT statement, but its IMPACT IS UNCERTAIN. It suggests a POSSIBLE OPENING FOR DIPLOMACY, but Trump's motivations and the potential for concrete action are unclear. It could be an attempt to SIGNAL A DIFFERENT APPROACH to the conflict than previous administrations.

• COSMONAUT MISSION (IRRELEVANT, TASS):

  • 22:42 UTC: Crew Dragon with a Russian cosmonaut to launch to the ISS on March 12.
  • Assessment: This has NO DIRECT MILITARY IMPACT.

• DECREE SUPPORT (IRRELEVANT, TASS): * 23:03 UTC: Nina Ostanina supports the idea of extending parental leave to three years. * Assessment: This has NO DIRECT MILITARY IMPACT.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant changes are:

1. CONTINUED AND EVOLVING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY): The drone threat remains CRITICAL, with multiple waves, shifting directions, and new targets (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). The PERSISTENT THREAT TO KYIV is the HIGHEST PRIORITY.
2. SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY): Claims of Russian advances and potential Ukrainian collapse near Kostiantynopil represent a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT in this sector. The POSSIBLE ENCIRCLEMENT of Velyka Novosilka is a SERIOUS THREAT.
3. TRUMP'S COMMENTS ON US-RUSSIA RELATIONS (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT): While the impact is uncertain, Trump's statements suggest a POSSIBLE OPENING FOR DIPLOMACY.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERTNESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • CONTINUE TO TRACK drone movements meticulously, using all available resources.
   • PRIORITIZE DEFENSE of Kyiv, surrounding regions, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • COORDINATE air defense efforts across regions to maximize effectiveness.
   • ISSUE and maintain public warnings, advising residents to remain in shelters.
   • Prepare for POTENTIAL FURTHER WAVES of drone attacks.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN NOVOPAVLOVSK (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • GATHER INDEPENDENT INTELLIGENCE to confirm the reported Russian advances and Ukrainian losses.
   • ASSESS the threat of encirclement to Velyka Novosilka.
   • REINFORCE Ukrainian defenses in the area, if necessary, and prepare for counterattacks.
   • PLAN for potential evacuation of civilians from threatened areas.

3. MONITOR US-RUSSIA RELATIONS (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on any potential diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia.
   • ASSESS the potential impact of any shift in US policy on the conflict.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains extremely dangerous and volatile. The ongoing drone attack and the reported Russian offensive in the Novopavlovsk direction are the most immediate concerns, requiring immediate action and close monitoring.