Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 22:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (22:08 UTC - 22:38 UTC, February 11)

Drone Activity - Confirmed Expansion

• DRONES SPREADING WITHIN ZHYTOMYR OBLAST AND TOWARDS KYIV (CONFIRMED, Ukrainian Air Force):
  • 22:32 UTC: Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in the eastern part of Zhytomyr Oblast and moving towards Kyiv.
  • Assessment: This confirms the CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with drones now REACHING THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE CAPITAL. This represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and IMMEDIATE THREAT to Kyiv. The penetration of air defenses to this extent is HIGHLY CONCERNING.

Ground Combat - Pokrovsk Direction (No New Updates)

• No new updates within this timeframe. The previous assessment of INTENSE AND ONGOING GROUND COMBAT with INCREMENTAL RUSSIAN GAINS remains valid.

Other Developments

• RUSSIAN RETALIATORY STRIKE (CONFIRMED, TASS):

  • 22:14 UTC: TASS reports that the "Tiger" battalion struck Ukrainian positions in retaliation for the death of former commander Sergei Efremov in the Kursk region.
  • Assessment: This confirms a RUSSIAN RETALIATORY ACTION, but the SPECIFIC TARGETS AND EFFECTIVENESS are unknown. It suggests a CONTINUATION OF CROSS-BORDER CLASHES and a POTENTIAL ESCALATION of hostilities in response to perceived Ukrainian attacks.

• ARAB COUNTRIES TO PROPOSE ALTERNATIVE GAZA PLAN (REPORTED, TASS):

  • 22:23 UTC: TASS reports that Arab countries will present an alternative to Trump's Gaza plan, according to the Jordanian Foreign Minister.
  • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENT, but its DIRECT IMPACT on the military situation in Ukraine is LIMITED.

• US LACKS CONCRETE UKRAINE PLAN (REPORTED, TASS):

  • 22:26 UTC: TASS, citing Fox News, reports that the US has no concrete plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine and is studying proposals from allies.
  • Assessment: This suggests UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL DIVISION within the US and among its allies regarding the STRATEGY FOR UKRAINE. This could have LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for the conflict's trajectory.

• JORDAN REJECTS TRUMP'S GAZA PLAN

  • 22:28 UTC: RBC Ukraine confirms Jordan's rejection of the Gaza plan.
  • Assessment: This reinforces the assessment of the previous point.

• PUTIN POSTHUMOUSLY AWARDS MEDAL (REPORTED, TASS):

  • 22:30 UTC: TASS reports that Putin posthumously awarded a medal to a teenager in the Kursk region for attempting to save a drowning peer.
  • Assessment: This has NO DIRECT MILITARY IMPACT.

• AVDIIVKA COKE PLANT FOOTAGE (REPORTED, Воин DV):

  • 22:31 UTC: Воин DV shows footage of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, which was captured by Russian forces in February 2024.
  • Assessment: This confirms the RUSSIAN CONTROL of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and shows the EXTENSIVE DAMAGE to the facility.

• ELON MUSK'S COMMENTS (IRRELEVANT, TASS):

  • 22:35 UTC: Elon Musk is against bureaucracy.
  • Assessment: This has NO DIRECT MILITARY IMPACT.

Military Equipment

• RUSSIAN ARTILLERY UPGRADES (REPORTED, Colonelcassad):
  • 22:11 UTC: Colonelcassad reports that the new modification of the wheeled 152-mm self-propelled artillery system 2S43 "Malva" with the 2A36 "Giatsint-B" artillery unit has been designated 2S44 "Giatsint-K". It is reportedly in service with the artillery division of the 238th Artillery Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, using OF59 long-range projectiles.
  • Assessment: This indicates ONGOING RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO MODERNIZE AND UPGRADE their artillery capabilities. The use of long-range projectiles suggests a focus on EXTENDING THE REACH of Russian artillery. The multiple photos and video confirm the existence and deployment of this system.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE IN KYIV AND ZHYTOMYR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • The DRONE THREAT TO KYIV is the HIGHEST PRIORITY.
   • ACTIVATE ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblast.
   • PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES approaching the capital.
   • Issue PUBLIC WARNINGS and advise residents to seek shelter.
   • COORDINATE air defense efforts with surrounding regions.
   • Prepare for potential MULTIPLE WAVES of drone attacks.

2. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The INTENSE DRONE ATTACK across multiple regions, including the THREAT TO KYIV, is the DOMINANT AND IMMEDIATE CONCERN. All other situations, including the fighting in the Pokrovsk direction and the potential Slovak gas blockade, remain important but are secondary to the IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE CRISIS.