Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 20:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (20:08 UTC - 20:38 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
CONTINUED DRONE MOVEMENT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
The Ukrainian Air Force (20:37 UTC) provides an updated status:
Drones in the western part of Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast.
Drones in the southern part of Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast.
Drones in the western parts of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast.
Drones in the northern part of Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
Drones in the east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Assessment: The drone attack remains WIDESPREAD and MULTI-DIRECTIONAL. The threat to Kyiv has SHIFTED FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH, indicating a possible FEINT or a change in tactics. The movement of drones towards Zhytomyr Oblast is a NEW DEVELOPMENT, expanding the area of concern. The continued threat in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts highlights the SCALE of the attack.
KYIV AIR RAID ALERT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) (20:12 UTC) announced an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of Russian attack drones.
KMVA (20:13 UTC) reiterated the air raid alert, urging citizens to seek shelter.
RBC-Ukraine (20:13 UTC) and Operativnyi ZSU (20:13 UTC) confirmed the air raid alert in Kyiv and several other regions.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the IMMINENT THREAT to Kyiv from the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK. The activation of air raid alerts indicates a HIGH LEVEL OF READINESS and preparedness within the city's defenses.
RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES IN SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE):
The Ukrainian Air Force (20:23 UTC) reported launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
Assessment: This CONFIRMSCONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and the use of guided aerial bombs, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to Ukrainian positions and infrastructure in the region.
RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE):
MoD Russia (20:28 UTC) claimed:
A long-range, high-precision strike targeting Ukrainian gas and power infrastructure, military airfields, and UAV storage/training areas.
Liberation of Yasenovoye (Donetsk People's Republic) by the Tsentr Group of Forces.
Continued operations in Kursk region, with reported Ukrainian losses of over 300 troops, two tanks, and other equipment. Two Ukrainian servicemen reportedly surrendered.
Destruction of three French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, one U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectile, and 128 fixed-wing UAVs by air defense facilities.
Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. The reported strike on infrastructure aligns with previous Russian tactics. The claim of liberating Yasenovoye, if true, would represent a TACTICAL GAIN for Russian forces. The reported Ukrainian losses in Kursk region, if accurate, are SIGNIFICANT, but NEED INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. The reported destruction of guided aerial bombs and UAVs indicates ongoing air defense efforts, but the numbers SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION.
ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims that the Russian army has made a significant breakthrough in the region.
FIGHTING IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR (REPORTED):
Сливочный каприз reports fighting in Siversk - Bilohorivka.
Assessment: This suggests continued fighting.
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights (20:08 UTC) posted a video claiming that Ukrainian border guards "calmed down" a group of Russian assault troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using drones.
Assessment: The video REQUIRES ANALYSIS to verify the claims. If confirmed, this would represent a TACTICAL SUCCESS for Ukrainian forces in countering Russian ground operations. This event reinforces the ongoing fighting in the Pokrovsk region.
CLAIMS OF WEAKENED RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENT IN POKROVSK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
* РБК-Україна relayed an expert's comment that there had been a slow in Russian advancement in the area.
* Assessment: The fighting in Pokrovsk has been CONFIRMED..
RBC-Ukraine (20:29 UTC) reported that, according to NYT sources, Trump secretly assigned Steve Witkoff to play a role in the settlement process of the war.
Colonelcassad (19:44 UTC) reported that Bloomberg claims that Bessen, the Minister of Finance, will be the first official to visit Ukraine.
STERNENKO reported the White House stated that Fogel has been released, and this is part of the ongoing peace talks.
Assessment: These reports further strengthen the evidence of ACTIVE BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between the Trump administration and Russia, potentially involving Ukraine. The reported involvement of Witkoff and Bessen adds SPECIFICITY to these negotiations. EXTREME PRIORITY remains on gathering intelligence about the nature and scope of these discussions.
RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA MATERIAL (REPORTED):
Два майора commented on the ongoing talks between the Trump administration and Russia.
* Assessment: These items are NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to immediate military decision-making but provide context on information operations and the broader geopolitical landscape.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS (MULTIPLE):
Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian TCC operation.
Assessment: These items are NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to immediate military decision-making.
Ongoing Situations
MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): The drone attack is ONGOING and WIDESPREAD, with confirmed threats shifting and expanding.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Still needs further investigation.
INTENSE FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, ESPECIALLY POKROVSK AND KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY):
CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT TO KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, SUMY, AND CHERNIHIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Immediate and active threat.
CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Persistent threat.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.
UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN: The ACTIVE Ukrainian recruitment campaign continues.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: The Ukrainian President announced sanctions.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE FOCUS, ADAPT TO SHIFTING THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain high alert across all regions experiencing drone activity, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Dynamically adjust air defense deployments based on the EVOLVING DRONE MOVEMENT PATTERNS. The shift in the threat to Kyiv and the expansion towards Zhytomyr Oblast require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.
Continue to utilize electronic warfare systems and counter-drone technologies.
Alert the population.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain previous actions.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON US-RUSSIA BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain all previous recommendations, with INCREASED URGENCY to determine the specific roles of Witkoff and Bessen, and the nature of the discussions.
CONFIRM OR REFUTE CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS IN DACHNE (HIGH PRIORITY):
Maintain previous actions
ASSESS IMPACT OF KRYVYI RIH STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY):
Track the uptake and effectiveness of the "Contract 18-24" program. Assess its impact on manpower levels and overall military capability.
Analyze the demographic profile of recruits and their motivations for joining. This will inform future recruitment strategies.
Assess public opinion regarding the campaign and any potential social or political implications.
Verify the claims made by the Ministry of Defense regarding financial awards.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
ANALYZE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Thoroughly analyze the video provided by Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights to verify the claims of a successful attack on Russian troops.
Assess the type of drones used and the tactics employed.
Evaluate the impact on Russian operations in the area.
The ONGOING AND EVOLVING DRONE ATTACK remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL concern, with threats shifting and expanding across multiple regions. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY NEAR KURSK requires URGENT INVESTIGATION. The ACTIVE BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between the US and Russia, now with more specific details, demand INTENSE SCRUTINY. The CONFIRMED Ukrainian recruitment campaign and claims of successful Ukrainian drone strikes require ongoing monitoring and analysis.
