Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 20:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (19:38 UTC - 20:08 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• KRYVYI RIH STRIKE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Oleksandr Vilkul reports a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. Damage to apartment buildings, businesses, and an educational institution is confirmed, but all casualties are reported as SURVIVED. A relief headquarters is being established at the same school used previously, indicating prior experience with similar incidents.

  • Assessment: CONFIRMS a Russian strike on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih. The survival of those affected is a POSITIVE outcome, but the damage to multiple structures underscores the continued threat to civilian areas. The rapid establishment of a relief center indicates effective local response capabilities.

• ONGOING DRONE MOVEMENT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• Nikolaevsky Vanyok provides updated locations:

  • 3 drones approaching Boryspil.
  • 5 drones at the intersection of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts, heading north.
  • 2 drones passed Balakliia, heading west.
  • 1 drone at the intersection of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • 2 drones west of Sumy.
  • 7 drones passed near Konotop in Chernihiv Oblast.
  • 5 drones approaching Chernihiv.

• The Ukrainian Air Force also reports an enemy attack drone heading towards Kyiv from the east.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with multiple groups targeting various regions. The threat to Kyiv is now EXPLICIT. The movement patterns indicate a complex attack designed to overwhelm air defenses. EXTREME PRIORITY remains on tracking and neutralizing these drones.

• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE (CONFIRMED,RUSSIAN SOURCE):

  • Colonelcassad, citing nm_dnr, reports that the "Berkut" group of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army) conducted counter-battery fire in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A UAV crew, a minibus, and "expensive equipment" of the enemy were reportedly destroyed near Dachne. A video is provided.
  • Assessment: This confirms RUSSIAN COUNTER-BATTERY OPERATIONS in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The claimed destruction of a UAV crew and equipment, if accurate, represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS for Russian forces. The video requires analysis to verify the claims.

• MARK FOGEL RELEASE CONFIRMED (MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• TASS confirms that Mark Fogel's lawyer has stated that he has been freed and is on his way to the US. * Assessment: CONFIRMS the ACTUAL RELEASE of Mark Fogel. The circumstances of his release are UNCLEAR, but it is linked to the CONFIRMED BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between the Trump administration and Russia.

• UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN UPDATES (MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• Desantno-shturmovi viyska ZS Ukrayiny, KiberBoroshno, and Operativnyi ZSU have published posts and promotional materials about the "Contract 18-24" program.

• Desantno-shturmovi viyska ZS Ukrayiny, KiberBoroshno, and Operativnyi ZSU have published images and a video advertising this program. * Assessment: The campaign's messaging is focused on a 1-year contract, financial and material benefits, and training. This is a concerted effort that is receiving substantial attention.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a "powerful breakthrough" on the Kursk front, with Russian forces advancing on a 20 km wide front to a depth of over 2 km. Claims of successful advances near Nikolaevo-Daryino, Aleksandria, and Nizhny Klin. Claims of the 106th Tula Airborne Division completing the clearing of Sverdlikovo (with the enemy only on the outskirts) and assaulting Nikolskoye. A map is provided.

  • Assessment: This information comes from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be treated with CAUTION. If accurate, it represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE within RUSSIAN TERRITORY, suggesting a possible UKRAINIAN INCURSION that was PREVIOUSLY UNREPORTED or UNDERESTIMATED. EXTREME PRIORITY is to gather independent verification of these claims, including satellite imagery and HUMINT.

• UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS IN DACHNE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad, citing verumreactor, reports that Ukrainian soldiers in Dachne "realized resistance was useless" and six surrendered to the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division) of the Southern Group of Forces. Two video episodes are provided.

• Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If true, it indicates POTENTIAL LOCALIZED MORALE ISSUES within Ukrainian forces in that area. However, six soldiers surrendering is not necessarily indicative of a widespread collapse.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO published a video showing Ukrainian drone operators attacking a Russian soldier.

• Colonelcassad published a video showing a Russian strike. The video includes the following text: “На Покровском (Красноармейском) направлении продолжаются ожесточённые бои, российские подразделения удерживают инициативу, несмотря на активные контратаки ВСУ. Противник пытается стабилизировать линию фронта, применяя ударные дроны и перебрасывая резервы.”

  • Assessment: The fighting in Pokrovsk has been CONFIRMED..

• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA MATERIAL (REPORTED):

• ASTRA reported on an attempted coverup of the investigation into the attack in Donetsk on December 30, 2024.

• МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники showed an image showing children receiving military instructions.

• Два майора commented on the ongoing talks between the Trump administration and Russia.

• Воин DV relayed reports that the US wishes for the EU to purchase more weapons for Ukraine.

  • Assessment: These items are NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to immediate military decision-making but provide context on information operations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Ongoing Situations

• MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): The drone attack is ONGOING and WIDESPREAD, with a confirmed threat to Kyiv.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Still needs further investigation.
• INTENSE FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, ESPECIALLY POKROVSK AND KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY):
• CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT TO KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, SUMY, AND CHERNIHIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Immediate and active threat.
• CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Persistent threat.
• ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.
• UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN: The ACTIVE Ukrainian recruitment campaign continues.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE FOCUS, PRIORITIZE KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to protect Kyiv from the CONFIRMED drone threat.
   • Maintain high alert across all regions experiencing drone activity, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
   • Continue to utilize electronic warfare systems and counter-drone technologies.
   • Alert the population, especially in Kyiv.

2. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to verify the claims of a significant Russian advance within Russian territory near the Kursk region.
   • Utilize satellite imagery, HUMINT, and signal intelligence to determine the extent of any potential Ukrainian incursion and subsequent Russian counter-offensive.
   • Assess the implications of this development for the overall security situation along the border.

3. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON US-RUSSIA BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Maintain all previous recommendations).

4. CONFIRM OR REFUTE CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS IN DACHNE (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Deploy intelligence assets to determine whether the reports of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering in Dachne are accurate. * If confirmed, assess the reasons for the surrender and the potential impact on morale in the surrounding area.
• Be prepared to counter any Russian propaganda related to this event.

5. ASSESS IMPACT OF KRYVYI RIH STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information on the specific targets hit in Kryvyi Rih and the extent of the damage.
   • Evaluate the impact on civilian infrastructure and morale.
   • Assess the effectiveness of the local response efforts.

6. MONITOR UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Track the uptake and effectiveness of the "Contract 18-24" program. Assess its impact on manpower levels and overall military capability.
• Analyze the demographic profile of recruits and their motivations for joining. This will inform future recruitment strategies.
• Assess public opinion regarding the campaign and any potential social or political implications.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with a CONFIRMED THREAT TO KYIV, remains the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL concern. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY NEAR KURSK requires URGENT INVESTIGATION as it could represent a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in the conflict dynamics. The CONFIRMED STRIKE ON KRYVYI RIH underscores the ongoing threat to civilian areas. The ACTIVE Ukrainian recruitment campaign continues, with a major focus on short-term contracts. The RELEASE OF MARK FOGEL confirms the ACTIVE BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between the US and Russia.