Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (19:09 UTC - 19:38 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): The Ukrainian Air Force reports a cancellation of the ballistic missile threat from Crimea.

  • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE ballistic missile threat from Crimea has subsided. However, the broader threat environment remains HIGHLY VOLATILE, and vigilance must be maintained.

• ONGOING DRONE MOVEMENT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): The Ukrainian Air Force provides an updated report on the movement of attack drones:

  • Sumy Oblast (western part, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast).
  • Chernihiv Oblast (southern part, heading towards Kyiv Oblast).
  • Kharkiv Oblast (central/western parts, heading towards Poltava Oblast).
  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with movements indicating a SHIFTING FOCUS towards central Ukraine, including the potential threat to Kyiv Oblast. The drone activity in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts remains a HIGH PRIORITY concern.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• US SPECIAL ENVOY'S MOSCOW VISIT & BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • Operativnyi ZSU reports, citing Axios, that Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, was in Moscow today, leading to the release of American teacher Mark Fogel. A national security advisor reportedly called it a "gesture of goodwill" and a sign of progress towards ending the war. Moscow initially denied the visit.
  • Operativnyi ZSU, citing The New York Times, further reports that Trump secretly authorized Witkoff to open a negotiation channel with Russia. Witkoff reportedly had direct talks with close allies of Putin and discussed Ukraine in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
  • RBC-Ukrayina also confirms Witkoff's visit and Fogel's release, quoting the White House.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, confirms Witkoff's visit.
  • Assessment: These reports, from MULTIPLE, CREDIBLE SOURCES, strongly suggest the existence of ACTIVE BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between the Trump administration and Russia, potentially related to the Ukraine conflict. The release of Mark Fogel appears to be a DIRECT RESULT of these talks. Linking it directly to a resolution of the conflict is PREMATURE, but it indicates a SIGNIFICANT DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT. The involvement of Saudi Arabia and Qatar suggests a BROADER INTERNATIONAL EFFORT to facilitate dialogue. EXTREME PRIORITY is to gather further intelligence on the nature and scope of these negotiations.

• UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES DESTROY ENEMY IN TORETSK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that the "Lyut" brigade, along with other units, are "mercilessly destroying the Russians" and holding back the enemy advance in Toretsk, with heavy fighting continuing. A video shows the brigade's flag in the center of Toretsk. * Assessment: CONFIRMS that active fighting is going on in Toretsk.

• RUSSIAN MILITARY VEHICLE REQUESTED (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that airborne units need another "bukhanka" (UAZ minivan).

  • Assessment: Indicates an ONGOING need for basic logistical support within Russian forces, particularly for transport. The specific request for a "bukhanka" suggests a need for a versatile, off-road capable vehicle suitable for the terrain and conditions.

• RUSSIAN US NAVY SOFTWARE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad reports that the US Navy is using software to improve the capabilities of the Aegis system against cruise and ballistic missiles.

  • Assessment: This is IRRELEVANT to the Ukrainian perspective.

• PROPAGANDA MATERIAL (REPORTED):

• ASTRA reported on the producer of a show buying real estate in Bulgaria.

• Новости Москвы reports on shrinking apartments.

• Рыбарь discusses the US's stance on AI. * Assessment: Irrelevant for military decision-making.

Ongoing Situations

• MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME, CRITICAL PRIORITY): While the ballistic missile threat from Crimea has been lifted, the drone attack continues across multiple regions, with a shifting focus towards central Ukraine.
• LIKELY KALIBR CRUISE MISSILE LAUNCH (ADDRESSED): The threat was reported, but with the all-clear from Crimea, this threat is now considered lower priority unless new information emerges.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This remains a MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in terms of potential ground offensives.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This represents a potential SECOND FRONT of significant Russian advances.
• ALLEGED INTERNAL DISSENT WITHIN UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP (HIGH PRIORITY): This could severely impact operational effectiveness and trust.
• CONFIRMED DRONE THREAT TO KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, SUMY, AND CHERNIHIV OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Immediate and active threat.
• CONTINUED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Persistent threat.
• ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED THREATS AND CONCERNS REMAIN VALID.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN INTENSE AIR DEFENSE FOCUS, ADJUST FOR SHIFTING DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize air defense resources towards central Ukraine, including Kyiv Oblast, in response to the reported drone movements.
   • Maintain high alert in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts, where drone activity remains significant.
   • Continue to utilize electronic warfare systems and counter-drone technologies.
   • Alert the population.

2. GATHER INTELLIGENCE ON US-RUSSIA BACK-CHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to gather information on the nature, scope, and participants of the reported negotiations between the Trump administration and Russia.
   • Focus on identifying any potential agreements, concessions, or timelines discussed.
   • Assess the potential impact of these negotiations on the military situation in Ukraine.
   • Determine the involvement of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

3. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Maintain all previous recommendations).

4. VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Maintain all previous recommendations).

5. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF INTERNAL DISSENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Conduct a thorough and impartial investigation into the claims made by Butusov Plus regarding the withholding of information from military commanders.
   • Determine the veracity of the allegations and identify any individuals responsible.
   • Take appropriate action to address any identified breaches of protocol or acts of sabotage.

6. ASSESS IMPACT OF UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT CAMPAIGN:

   • The campaign targeting 18-24 year olds with a one-year contract, offering significant financial and social benefits, is now officially launched.
   • Monitor the uptake and effectiveness of this campaign. Assess its impact on manpower levels and overall military capability.
   • Analyze the demographic profile of recruits and their motivations for joining. This will inform future recruitment strategies.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The CONFIRMED continuation of the widespread drone attack, with a shifting focus towards central Ukraine, remains a CRITICAL threat. The EMERGING EVIDENCE of back-channel negotiations between the US and Russia represents a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE and THOROUGH investigation. The claimed Russian advances near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove still require urgent verification. The Ukrainian recruitment drive, designed to bolster forces via the 18-24 age group, is now in effect.