Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 19:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (18:38 UTC - 19:08 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• CONFIRMED: BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): A ballistic missile threat was reported for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions under air raid alert, originating from Crimea. Mykolaivskyi Vanek reported an explosion in Kryvyi Rih, and Oleksandr Vilkul confirmed a missile attack. The Ukrainian Air Force also reported a ballistic missile threat from the northeast.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in Russian attacks, utilizing ballistic missiles from multiple directions. The confirmed explosion in Kryvyi Rih indicates the threat is active and causing damage. This requires EXTREME PRIORITY attention to air defense and damage assessment.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR SVERDLYKOVE AND MYKOLAIVO-DARYINO (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad reports Russian advances near these settlements.

  • Assessment: Suggests ongoing Russian advances.

• REPORTED: RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dnevnik Desantnika provides a detailed summary of alleged Russian advances across multiple fronts, including:

  • Kursk Oblast: Claims of continued clearing operations in the forests near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and progress near Sudzha.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Claims of advances on Minkivka and reports of liberating Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
  • Krasnoarmiis'ke Direction: Claims of advances near Zelenivka and control of the center of Andriivka.
  • Kupyansk Direction: Claims of advances near Zapadne towards Doroshovka and expansion of a bridgehead.
  • Dzerzhynsk Direction: Claims of clearing operations near Shcherbynivka.
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: Claims of expanding control near Chasiv Yar.
  • Assessment: These claims, while originating from a RUSSIAN SOURCE and likely inflated, suggest INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS across multiple axes. The breadth and claimed scale of these advances, if even partially true, represent a SERIOUS DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian defensive situation. EXTREME PRIORITY verification is required.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): RBC-Ukrayina reports that sappers in Kyiv Oblast neutralized a modern Russian X-69 missile.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued Russian use of advanced weaponry and highlights the CRITICAL need for effective air defense and explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) capabilities. The interception of an X-69 suggests Ukrainian air defenses are capable of intercepting advanced weapons, but the fact that it was found in a field implies it was not intercepted in flight.

• CONFIRMED: DRONE THREAT IN KHARKIV OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): The Ukrainian Air Force reported a threat of attack drones in Kharkiv Oblast.

  • Assessment: The use of drones continues.

• CONFIRMED: DRONE ACTIVITY IN SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone activity.

  • Assessment: Confirms ongoing Russian drone surveillance.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• CONFIRMED: BELGOROD SLEDGE-HOCKEY (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Assessment: Confirms that Russia plans to use injured soldiers to play sports.

• REPORTED: PRISONER EXCHANGE (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): ASTRA and Alex Parker Returns report on the release of American citizen Mark Fogel from Russian custody, linking it to potential progress in resolving the Ukraine conflict. The White House reportedly called it a "gesture of goodwill."

  • Assessment: This POTENTIALLY indicates a resumption of dialogue or back-channel negotiations between Russia and the US, possibly related to prisoner exchanges. However, linking it directly to a resolution of the conflict is premature and speculative. It's MORE LIKELY a limited diplomatic exchange.

• REPORTED: SLOVAKIA CONSIDERING HALTING GAS SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): RBC-Ukrayina reports that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that Slovakia may consider stopping gas supplies to Ukraine.

  • Assessment: This is a SERIOUS THREAT to Ukraine's energy security, particularly given the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. It highlights Ukraine's vulnerability to external pressure and reliance on neighboring countries for energy transit.

Other Developments

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT DRIVE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Assessment: This confirms the mobilization of more Ukrainians.

• REPORTED: POISONING IN MOSCOW (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Assessment: This is irrelevant to the military situation.

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN INTERNAL DISSENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Butusov Plus reports on alleged withholding of information regarding the Russian invasion from high-ranking military officials.

  • Assessment: This is a SERIOUS ALLEGATION that, if true, indicates significant internal dysfunction and potential sabotage within the Ukrainian government and military command structure. This could have severe implications for operational effectiveness and trust within the armed forces. Requires URGENT investigation.

Updated Situation Summary

The situation has deteriorated significantly, with confirmed ballistic missile attacks across multiple regions, and increased pressure. The most significant updates include:

• CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS: This represents an ESCALATION of Russian attacks.
• ALLEGED WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ADVANCES: The reported gains across multiple fronts, if confirmed, would represent a MAJOR shift in the battlefield situation.
• POTENTIAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTION FROM SLOVAKIA: This poses a SERIOUS threat to Ukraine's energy security.
• ALLEGED INTERNAL DISSENT WITHIN UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP: This could severely impact operational effectiveness and trust.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS: The ongoing recruitment drive, now targeting 18-24-year-olds with significant financial incentives, highlights the continued strain on Ukrainian manpower and the need to replenish losses.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain EXTREME VIGILANCE for further ballistic missile and drone attacks.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Ensure all air defense systems are at maximum readiness.

2. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT IN KRYVYI RIH (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Immediately assess the damage caused by the confirmed missile strike in Kryvyi Rih.
   • Determine casualties and provide immediate medical assistance.
   • Evaluate the impact on critical infrastructure.

3. VERIFY ALLEGED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to confirm or refute the widespread Russian advances reported by Dnevnik Desantnika. This includes satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, and human intelligence sources.
   • Focus on key areas: Kursk Oblast (Sudzha, Cherkasskaya Konopelka), Kramatorsk (Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka), Krasnoarmiis'ke (Zelenivka, Andriivka, Sribne, Zaporizhzhia, Preobrazhenka), Kupyansk (Zapadne, Doroshovka), Dzerzhynsk (Shcherbynivka), and Chasiv Yar.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed territorial changes on the overall strategic situation.

4. ADDRESS POTENTIAL ENERGY CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Engage in immediate diplomatic efforts with Slovakia to secure continued gas supplies.
   • Explore alternative energy sources and supply routes.
   • Implement energy conservation measures to mitigate the impact of potential supply disruptions.

5. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF INTERNAL DISSENT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Conduct a thorough and impartial investigation into the claims made by Butusov Plus regarding the withholding of information from military commanders.
   • Determine the veracity of the allegations and identify any individuals responsible.
   • Take appropriate action to address any identified breaches of protocol or acts of sabotage.

6. MAINTAIN AND ENHANCE COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies and tactics, given the persistent threat.
   • Protect critical infrastructure and military assets from drone attacks.

7. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF PRISONER EXCHANGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the details of the Mark Fogel exchange.
   • Determine if it represents a broader shift in US-Russia relations or a limited, isolated event.
   • Evaluate potential opportunities for further dialogue or negotiation.

8. MONITOR UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Track the progress and effectiveness of the new recruitment drive targeting 18-24-year-olds.
   • Assess the impact on manpower levels and overall military capabilities.

9. ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).

10. ASSESS RUSSIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Verify and analyze the reported troop deployments from Khabarovsk. Determine the destination, size, and composition of the deploying units.

11. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION CHALLENGES (HIGH PRIORITY): Analyze the incident in the Rivne region and develop strategies to mitigate resistance to conscription. Consider improved security for recruitment officers and public communication campaigns to address concerns.

12. MONITOR RUSSIAN-KYRGYZSTAN RELATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Assess the implications of increased economic and educational cooperation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan for regional dynamics and potential circumvention of sanctions.

13. INVESTIGATE DISCIPLINE ISSUES IN RUSSIAN UNITS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Gather further intelligence on the incident involving the Russian soldier sentenced for murder. Assess the prevalence of alcohol abuse and command structure breakdowns in Russian units.

14. MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY IN SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY) Determine the objectives and capabilities of Russian reconnaissance drones operating in the area.

15. ANALYZE US TREASURY SECRETARY VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Focus on gathering intelligence regarding the specific terms of any proposed resource-for-aid deal. Assess the potential implications for Ukraine's sovereignty and long-term economic interests.

16. All previous recommendations remain in effect.

The confirmed ballistic missile attacks and the widespread, albeit unconfirmed, reports of Russian advances represent a significant escalation and potential turning point in the conflict. Immediate action is required to verify the situation on the ground, reinforce defenses, and address the potential energy crisis. The allegations of internal dissent within Ukrainian leadership also demand urgent attention.