Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 18:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (17:39 UTC - 18:08 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

CONFIRMED: FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA reports fighting near Sudzha, with Russian volunteer forces from the "VETERANS" brigade engaging what they describe as Ukrainian "saboteurs." Claims of "serious losses" for Ukrainian forces. Provides video footage, purportedly showing the "VETERANS" brigade in action.
- Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS ongoing military activity WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY near the Ukrainian border. The involvement of a volunteer unit suggests potential reliance on non-regular forces to address the incursion. Claims of "serious losses" require CAREFUL VERIFICATION but are consistent with the ongoing narrative of Russian success in repelling the alleged Ukrainian incursions.
REPORTED: RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR LIPTSY AND VOLCHANSK, KHARKIV OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian positions with UAVs and artillery near Liptsy and conducting clearing operations near Volchansk, including an alleged attempt to interdict Ukrainian forces crossing the Volchya River.
- Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION due to the source. If accurate, it indicates continued Russian pressure in the Kharkiv region, though likely at a smaller scale than the reported offensive in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. The claimed interdiction of a river crossing suggests an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and reinforcement efforts.
REPORTED: UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK REPULSED, DONETSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dnevnik Desantnika claims Ukrainian forces attempted a counterattack, which was repulsed by Russian UAV operators and artillery.
- Assessment: Requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If accurate, it indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to regain lost ground, met with Russian resistance.
CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN FORCES IN TORETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Operatyvnyy ZSU shows video footage of the "Lyut" brigade and other units in Toretsk, claiming heavy fighting is ongoing.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS the presence of Ukrainian forces in Toretsk and ongoing fighting in the area. The mention of multiple units suggests a coordinated defense effort.
CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN ARMOR (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Desantno-shturmovi viyska ZS Ukrayiny provides video footage claiming the destruction of "30+" Russian personnel and several armored vehicles by the 71st Brigade in a single engagement. BUTUSOV PLYUS shows video of a single captured Russian soldier, claiming he was the sole survivor of a 30-man assault.
- Assessment: These reports, while likely exaggerated in terms of precise numbers, CONFIRM successful Ukrainian defensive actions and the infliction of casualties on Russian forces. The discrepancy between the two reports (30+ casualties vs. one survivor) highlights the information warfare aspect of the conflict.
CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Kotsnews, Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, and TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS provide video footage and reports of Russian strikes on gas infrastructure in the Poltava region.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued Russian targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure, aiming to disrupt gas supplies and weaken Ukraine's economy. The use of multiple missiles suggests a coordinated effort to inflict significant damage.
CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN TANK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE) TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video of the event. * Assessment: Confirms the Ukrainian capability to defend themselves against armored vehicles.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

REPORTED: TRUMP CLAIMS "SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS" ON UKRAINE SETTLEMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS reports that Trump claims "significant progress" has been made on resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
- Assessment: This requires EXTREME CAUTION and CAREFUL VERIFICATION. Given Trump's past statements and the lack of specific details, this claim is likely highly speculative and potentially part of an information operation to influence negotiations or public perception.
CONFIRMED: ZELENSKIY ANNOUNCES TALKS WITH US REPRESENTATIVES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): RBC-Ukrayina, KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration), Zaporizʹka oblasna viysʹkova administratsiya, and Operatyvnyy ZSU confirm Zelenskyy's announcement of upcoming talks with US representatives "at many levels."
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing high-level engagement between Ukraine and the US, likely focusing on military and financial assistance, as well as potential negotiations.
REPORTED: UKRAINIAN MEDIA DISCUSSES US "LEND-LEASE" BILL (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA claims Ukrainian media is highlighting a proposed US "lend-lease" bill that could provide Ukraine with "victorious weapons." However, it also notes that the bill's sponsor is a pro-Ukraine Republican and its passage is uncertain.
- Assessment: This highlights the ongoing information warfare and the attempts to shape public perception regarding US military aid to Ukraine. The report acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the bill's passage, suggesting a degree of realism despite the pro-Russian slant.
CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN REACTION TO ZELENSKIY'S KURSK OBLAST STATEMENT (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): ASTRA and Dva Majora quote Maria Zakharova (Russian Foreign Ministry) threatening "neo-Nazis" in Kursk Oblast with death, denying any possibility of a territorial exchange.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS the Russian official stance of denying any Ukrainian territorial gains in Kursk Oblast and rejecting any negotiations involving territorial concessions. The threatening language is consistent with the ongoing Russian narrative of "de-Nazification."

Other Developments

REPORTED: UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): STERNENKO reports on a fundraising effort to support Ukrainian forces.
- Assessment: Confirms ongoing fundraising efforts, highlighting the importance of public support for the war effort.
REPORTED: RUSSIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENTS FROM KHABAROVSK (REPORTED): (UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Shef Hayabusa posted a video purporting to show Russian troops departing from Khabarovsk.
- Assessment: CAREFUL VERIFICATION IS NEEDED.

Updated Situation Summary

The situation remains dynamic, with confirmed fighting WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, and ongoing Russian efforts to target Ukrainian infrastructure. Confirmed successful Ukrainian defensive actions and inflictions of casualties on Russian forces. Continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and the US, with upcoming talks confirmed. Trump's claim of "significant progress" on a settlement requires EXTREME CAUTION. The reported Russian offensive push towards Dnepropetrovsk Oblast remains the most significant potential development, requiring urgent verification.

Updated Recommendations

VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ASSESS RUSSIAN OBJECTIVES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
MONITOR SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ANALYZE US TREASURY SECRETARY VISIT (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF US "ABANDONING" KURDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ANALYZE RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ASSESS INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES IN RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
ASSESS RUSSIAN TROOP DEPLOYMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Verify and analyze the reported troop deployments from Khabarovsk. Determine the destination, size, and composition of the deploying units.
All previous recommendations remain in effect.