Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 17:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (17:08 UTC - 17:38 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN GRAD MLRS STRIKES (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): MoD Russia provides video footage showing Grad MLRS crews of the Yug Group of Forces targeting Ukrainian positions, claiming to have hit manpower, hardware concentrations, strongholds, observation posts, and mobile firepower routes. Claims destruction of positions with manpower and a Ukrainian pickup truck.

  • Assessment: This confirms continued Russian use of MLRS to target Ukrainian forces, indicating a focus on area suppression and interdiction of movement. The claimed targets suggest an attempt to degrade Ukrainian defensive capabilities and disrupt logistics.

• REPORTED: RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Basurin o glavnom (citing the Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade) claims Russian forces are preparing for a "general assault" on the last line of Ukrainian fortifications on the border of Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Claims Russian forces are consolidating positions in Andriivka and moving north from the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia road. Aims to reach the border of Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, assault the defensive line at Sergeevka-Novopodgorodnoye-Muravka-Dachnoye, and gain operational space. Basurin o glavnom also presents video, allegedly showing the Russian "Berkut" group (238th Artillery Brigade, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army) destroying a Ukrainian UAV crew, a minibus, and "expensive military equipment" near Dachnoye.

  • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION due to the source. If true, this represents a MAJOR shift in the front line and indicates a significant Russian offensive push towards Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. The claimed targets and the alleged "general assault" suggest a large-scale operation with strategic objectives. The claimed destruction of a UAV crew and equipment near Dachnoye, if confirmed, would support this narrative.

• CONFIRMED/REPORTED: RUSSIAN OPERATIONS IN KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED/RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dva Majora provides video footage, claiming that the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (Sevastopol) is targeting Ukrainian forces in Sudzha and Makhnovka (Kursk Oblast). Starshye Eddy claims Ukrainian forces are occupying part of Kursk Oblast for a potential exchange, which is denied by Maria Zakharova (Russian Foreign Ministry), who states that any "neo-Nazis" in Kursk Oblast will be eliminated.

  • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS ongoing military activity WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY in Kursk Oblast. The conflicting narratives (Ukrainian occupation for exchange vs. Russian denial and threat of elimination) highlight the information warfare aspect of the conflict. The use of the 810th Marine Brigade (based in Sevastopol, Crimea) is significant, indicating a potential redeployment of forces to address the incursion. The involvement shows a shift in focus for the 810th.

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dva Majora displays multiple images and claims Ukrainian casualties.

  • Assessment: Requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. However, it is in line with other reports of casualties.

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Povitryani Sily ZS Ukrayiny / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a drone attack threat in Sumy Oblast.

  • Assessment: Confirms that there are ongoing attacks in Ukraine.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• CONFIRMED: US TREASURY SECRETARY VISIT TO UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights, RBC-Ukrayina, and Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny (citing Trump) confirm that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being sent to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky. Reports indicate the visit is intended to signal an end to the war and discuss financial matters. Operatsiya Z claims the visit is related to Ukraine providing $500 million in critical minerals as compensation for US aid.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS high-level US engagement with Ukraine, focusing on the financial aspects of the conflict. The reported aim of ending the war suggests a potential shift in US policy and a focus on a negotiated settlement. The claims about critical minerals require CAREFUL VERIFICATION, but suggest a potential US interest in securing access to Ukrainian resources.

• REPORTED: TRUMP PEACE PLAN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Rybar reports that Western media is "warming up" the information field before the Munich Security Conference, where elements of Trump's "peace plan" will allegedly be presented. Claims recent Washington Post reporting on Keith Kellogg's daughter's involvement in logistical support for Ukraine and quotes from Kellogg and other Trump administration officials are part of this effort. Rybar suggests the US peace plan initiative is "cheap populism" and that the outcome of negotiations will depend on the situation on the ground.

  • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. It highlights the ongoing information warfare and the attempts to shape public perception ahead of potential negotiations. The claims about the Munich Security Conference and the "peace plan" require further investigation.

• REPORTED: US ABANDONING MILITARY ASSISTANCE (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns reports, citing the Pentagon Head, that Trump expects a quick peace settlement in Ukraine, and that the US will not send troops to Ukraine, nor will they send a new military aid package during the Ramstein meeting.

  • Assessment: This needs CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, this indicates a change in US policy.

• REPORTED: ISRAEL TO RESUME FIGHTING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS reports, citing Netanyahu, that Israel will resume combat operations in Gaza if Hamas does not release hostages by noon on February 15.

  • Assessment: Requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION.

• REPORTED: ZELENSKIY RNBOU MEETING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Zelenskiy / Official states that he has scheduled an RNBOU (National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine) meeting for tomorrow to address medicine prices and sanctions.

  • Assessment: Confirms the meeting, and it's purpose.

Other Developments

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Operatyvnyy ZSU reports on a fundraising effort to support various Ukrainian units, including drone units, special forces, and territorial defense forces.

  • Assessment: Confirms ongoing fundraising efforts, highlighting the importance of the war effort.

• REPORTED: RUSSIAN LEGISLATION ON RUSSIAN LANGUAGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dva Majora and Sever.Realii report that the Russian State Duma has passed in the first reading a law on the protection of the Russian language, restricting the use of foreign words on signs and in public spaces.

  • Assessment: This indicates an attempt to reinforce Russian national identity and cultural dominance.

• REPORTED: KALASHNIKOV DRONE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad reports that Kalashnikov will present the SKAT 350M civilian-purpose UAV complex at the IDEX 2025 arms exhibition in Abu Dhabi. Claims the drone is designed for reconnaissance and has been used in the "Special Military Operation" zone.

  • Assessment: This indicates a Russian attempt to market its drone technology internationally, potentially for both civilian and military applications. The claimed use in the conflict zone suggests it has been battle-tested.

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN ATTACK ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights reports that a gas production facility in Poltava Oblast has ceased operations due to Russian missile strikes.

  • Assessment: Confirms ongoing attacks by the Russian side.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant development is the REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PUSH TOWARDS DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST, requiring urgent verification. Confirmed fighting continues WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY in Kursk Oblast. The confirmed US Treasury Secretary visit to Ukraine signals a focus on the financial aspects of the conflict and a potential push for a negotiated settlement. Ongoing drone attacks and fundraising efforts continue on both sides. The introduction of a new Russian drone.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): Independently confirm the reported Russian offensive towards Dnepropetrovsk Oblast and the claimed preparations for a "general assault." Utilize all available intelligence assets, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence.
2. ASSESS RUSSIAN OBJECTIVES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): If the Russian offensive is confirmed, determine the strategic objectives and potential consequences. Assess the threat to key cities and infrastructure.
3. REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): If the Russian offensive is confirmed, prepare for potential reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses in the region. Develop contingency plans for defending key areas and preventing further Russian advances.
4. MONITOR SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue to gather intelligence on the ongoing military activity in Kursk Oblast. Assess the extent of the Ukrainian presence and the potential for further escalation.
5. ANALYZE US TREASURY SECRETARY VISIT (HIGH PRIORITY): Gather further information on the objectives of the US Treasury Secretary's visit to Ukraine. Assess the potential implications for US policy and the prospects for a negotiated settlement.
6. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF US "ABANDONING" KURDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
7. ANALYZE RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
8. ASSESS INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES IN RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
9. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
10. ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): (Maintain previous recommendation).
11. All previous recommendations remain in effect.