Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 17:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (16:38 UTC - 17:08 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian paratroopers are clearing remaining enemy forces in the forests of Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Claims successful expulsion of enemy forces from strongholds in Sverdlikovo and its surroundings. Also reports advances near Kurilovka, approaching the southern side of Sudzha. Claims a high-precision strike in Sumy Oblast eliminated over 130 enemy combatants and equipment. Reports repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Russkoe Poperechnoe. Lists extensive enemy losses: 2 tanks, 1 BMP, 4 BTRs, 5 BBMs, 1 MTLB, 12 vehicles, 2 artillery pieces, 5 mortars, 7 UAV launch points, 2 ammunition depots, 12 fixed-wing UAVs, and 5 "Baba Yaga" octocopters.

  • Assessment: This is a MAJOR development, if true. This report, combined with the earlier ISW report of Ukrainian advances in the Kursk Oblast, confirms fighting WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The claimed scale of Ukrainian losses requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION, as this is a Russian source and likely inflated. However, the report of fighting near Sudzha is SIGNIFICANT as it suggests a deeper incursion than previously acknowledged. The claimed high-precision strike in Sumy Oblast also needs independent verification.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KURSK OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Arkhangel Spetsnaza provides video footage purportedly showing Ukrainian drone strikes against enemy infantry groups in Kursk Oblast. Claims that enemy forces are "crawling out of every hole."

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS Ukrainian drone operations WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, corroborating the ISW report and the Dnevnik Desantnika report. This demonstrates Ukrainian capability to strike beyond the established front lines and into Russia proper.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Prezidentska Brigada ZSU presents video footage of nighttime drone operations, claiming to target enemy movements.

  • Assessment: This showcases Ukraine's continued reliance on and proficiency in drone warfare, particularly for nighttime operations. Thermal imaging capabilities give them a significant advantage in detecting and targeting enemy forces.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA, BEFORE AND AFTER (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE) Dva Majora provides video and image, claiming a successful strike in the Zaporizhzhia direction, reporting that a building being used to hide soldiers was hit with an LMUR, reducing the building to rubble.

  • Assessment: If true, this indicates the strategic removal of the building.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Butusov Plyus presents video footage of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, naming several units, including naval infantry, airborne divisions and units from the Black Sea fleet.

  • Assessment: This gives a first-hand view of Ukrainian losses.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONES DESTROYED (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS reports that four Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.

  • Assessment: This confirms continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory, and Russian air defense efforts to counter them.

• REPORTED: RUSSIAN CASUALTIES IN BRYANSK OBLAST (REPORTED, POTENTIALLY BIASED SOURCE): Mobilizatsiya I Novosti I Srochniki (citing ASTRA) reports that two Russian military personnel were killed and eight wounded in attacks on customs checkpoints in Bryansk Oblast on February 9th. Claims the second floor of a building used by Russian military personnel was destroyed.

  • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. While ASTRA is generally reliable, the source channel has a clear anti-mobilization bias. If confirmed, this demonstrates Ukrainian capability to strike targets within Russia and inflict casualties on Russian military personnel.

• REPORTED: UKRAINIAN SOLDIER REQUESTING AID (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Voenkor Kotenok shows a video of a soldier requesting a Starlink, claiming that soldiers go into combat daily.

  • Assessment: This shows potential logistical weaknesses of the Russian military.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• REPORTED: TRUMP-PUTIN CONVERSATION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dnevnik Desantnika claims a conversation may have occurred between "the two leaders". Claims that the conversation was mainly about not Ukraine, but global economics, the US Dollar, oil, and gas. Also claims that Europe will be forced to buy weapons from the US and that Ukraine will stop being discussed.

  • Assessment: This needs CAREFUL VERIFICATION. The source makes claims that are very hard to confirm.

• REPORTED: US "ABANDONING" KURDS IN SYRIA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Voenkor Kotenok (citing Turkish media) claims the US is "gradually abandoning" Kurdish forces in Rojava (Syria), facilitating their withdrawal to Iraqi Kurdistan with heavy weapons.

  • Assessment: This requires CAREFUL VERIFICATION. It is a report from a Russian source citing Turkish media, both of which have their own biases. If true, this would represent a MAJOR shift in US policy in Syria and have significant implications for the regional balance of power.

• REPORTED: US WILL NOT SEND WEAPONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad reports, citing "American Media", that during a visit by the new US Head of the Pentagon to Europe, the US will not send weapons to Ukraine. They also claim that the US will pressure Europe to buy American weaponry.

  • Assessment: This needs CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, this indicates that the US may want Europe to carry the financial burden of the war.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN SHELTER INSPECTION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Zaporizka Oblasna Viyskova Administratsiya reports on a planned inspection of shelters in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

  • Assessment: This suggests a focus on civilian safety and preparations for potential air raids.

Other Developments

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING FOR DRONES AND MOTORCYCLES (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad reports on a fundraising effort to purchase 100 motorcycles and 100 drones (50 day/50 night) for Russian forces. Claims the motorcycles have been purchased and are being assembled, and the drones arrived early.

  • Assessment: This demonstrates continued reliance on crowdfunding to support Russian military operations, highlighting potential logistical challenges or gaps in official supply chains. The focus on motorcycles suggests a need for increased mobility, likely for reconnaissance or small-unit operations.

• CONFIRMED: HEATING OUTAGES IN ROSTOV (CONFIRMED): ASTRA reports that hundreds of homes in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, are without heating due to two separate utility failures.

  • Assessment: This highlights infrastructure vulnerabilities within Russia and potential impacts on civilian populations, particularly during winter months. This is likely unrelated to military operations but demonstrates a broader context of potential strain on resources.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant development is the CONFIRMED FIGHTING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY in Kursk Oblast, with both Russian and Ukrainian sources reporting on military activity. This marks a major escalation and a shift in the conflict's dynamics. Ukrainian drone operations continue both within Ukraine and targeting Russian territory. Fundraising for military supplies by the Russian side suggests potential needs.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY): Independently confirm the reported Russian advances near Sudzha and the claimed scale of Ukrainian losses. Utilize all available intelligence assets, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence.
2. ASSESS UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY TO STRIKE WITHIN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY): Analyze the confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Determine the range, frequency, and potential impact of these operations. Assess potential targets within Russia and Ukrainian capacity to reach them.
3. MONITOR SITUATION IN BRYANSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): Verify the reported casualties at customs checkpoints in Bryansk Oblast. Gather further information on the nature of the attacks and the extent of the damage.
4. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF US "ABANDONING" KURDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Seek independent confirmation of the reported US policy shift regarding Kurdish forces in Syria. Analyze the potential implications for the regional balance of power and the fight against ISIS.
5. ANALYZE RUSSIAN FUNDRAISING EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor Russian crowdfunding campaigns for military supplies. Assess the types of equipment being sought and the potential impact on Russian operational capabilities.
6. ASSESS INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES IN RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor reports of infrastructure failures, such as the heating outages in Rostov. Analyze the potential impact on civilian populations and any indirect effects on military operations.
7. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): Track Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. Assess the impact on the civilian population and Ukraine's overall resilience.
8. ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): If possible, gather information on the severity of the water situation in Donetsk and potential solutions.
9. All previous recommendations remain in effect.