Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 16:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (16:09 UTC - 16:38 UTC, February 11)

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN REACTION TO ZELENSKYI'S TERRITORY SWAP PROPOSAL (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Maria Zakharova, speaking to Izvestia, stated that Ukrainian "neo-Nazis" operating in the Kursk region would receive "land without any exchange, meter by two meters." This refers to Zelenskyi's purported offer to exchange territory.

  • Assessment: This is a highly aggressive and dismissive response, reinforcing Russia's hardline stance and rejecting any notion of territorial compromise. The "meter by two meters" phrase is a euphemism for a grave.

• CONFIRMED/RUSSIAN SOURCE: PUTIN-TRUMP COMMUNICATIONS (RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Basurin o Glavnom, repeating information, claims that Zelenski proposed to Russia to trade the territories controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk region for territories under Russian control. However, Zelenski does not know what territory Ukraine will request for exchange. The same source states that all territories are equally important.

  • Assessment: This reinforces previous claims, emphasizing the lack of information available.

• CONFIRMED: US DEFENSE SECRETARY AVOIDS ONE-ON-ONE MEETING WITH UKRAINIAN COUNTERPART (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Kotsnews, citing The Washington Post, reports that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will avoid a one-on-one meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart during his first foreign trip to Germany. The source claims that the US is keeping the Ukrainian side on a short leash.

  • Assessment: This suggests a significant degree of distrust or caution on the part of the US towards Ukraine, potentially related to concerns about information leaks or misrepresentation of agreements. This could indicate a cooling of relations.

• CONFIRMED: US WILL NOT SEND TROOPS TO UKRAINE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): RBC-Ukraine reiterates that the US will not send troops to Ukraine.

  • Assessment: This reaffirms a consistent US policy position.

• CONFIRMED: HUNGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL VISITS KYIV, DEMANDS EXPLANATIONS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Operativnyi ZSU reports that Hungarian Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar arrived in Kyiv to demand explanations from Ukrainian authorities regarding an alleged "slanderous campaign" against Hungary.

  • Assessment: This highlights ongoing tensions between Hungary and Ukraine. Hungary's pro-Russian stance and obstruction of EU aid to Ukraine likely contribute to these tensions.

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN POW CLAIMS TEENAGERS SERVING IN AFU (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense features a captured Ukrainian serviceman, Pyotr Polinkevich, claiming to have seen 16-year-old soldiers in his brigade. He describes them as orphans and intimidated.

  • Assessment: This requires careful consideration. While Ukraine has lowered the mobilization age, the use of 16-year-olds would be a serious violation of international norms. This could be propaganda, but it warrants investigation. The POW also encourages Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN "DRONE LINE" PROJECT (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Rybar reports, accompanied by maps, on the Ukrainian "Drone Line" project, aiming to establish a 10-15 km zone where the enemy cannot move without losses, providing infantry with air support and identifying targets before approaching positions.

  • Assessment: This underlines the escalating importance of drone warfare. The effectiveness of such a zone would depend heavily on the density of drone coverage, electronic warfare capabilities, and the ability to maintain a constant supply of drones and trained operators. The map identifies the following units: 20th Separate Regiment "K-2", 429th Regiment "Achilles", 427th Regiment "RAROG", 414th Brigade "Birds of Magyar" and "Phoenix" Regiment.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN STRIKES ON NIKOPOLSHCHYNA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Serhiy Lysak reports almost thirty attacks on Nikopolshchyna since morning, using heavy artillery and drones. A 78-year-old woman was injured. Damage includes private and transport enterprises, a medical facility, a shop, a gas station, apartment buildings, private houses, outbuildings, cars, a greenhouse, a moped, gas pipelines, and power lines.

  • Assessment: This confirms continued Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and causing casualties. The scale of the attacks suggests a deliberate effort to disrupt daily life and inflict damage.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN STRIKE ON DTEK GAS PRODUCTION FACILITY IN POLTAVA REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): RBC-Ukraine and Operativnyi ZSU report a Russian strike on a DTEK gas production facility in the Poltava region. The facility is not operational, and damage assessment is underway.

  • Assessment: This confirms another attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, highlighting a pattern of Russian targeting of energy assets.

• REPORTED: KILLING OF UKRAINIAN FIGHTER WITH RIGHT-WING TIES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the killing of Ukrainian fighter Daniil Sverdlov under "unexplained circumstances." He was a member of the Odesa cell of the "Right Sector."

  • Assessment: This requires verification. The circumstances of his death are unclear.

• REPORTED/RUSSIAN SOURCE: SUCCESSFUL STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHIA (RUSSIAN SOURCE): Dva Majora, accompanied by videos and images, reports a strike on a building, claiming to have destroyed an enemy hideout.

  • Assessment: The source claims to have used an LMUR munition.

Other Developments

• CONFIRMED: CONCERN OVER WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Kotsnews reports that the water situation in Donetsk is worse than last year. This was a key topic of discussion between the head of the republic and the president.

  • Assessment: This highlights a critical humanitarian issue and potential vulnerability for the region.

• CONFIRMED/RUSSIAN SOURCE: DISCUSSION OF FOREIGN FUNDING FOR RUSSIAN INDIVIDUALS (RUSSIAN SOURCE): ASTRA, Operativnyi ZSU, accompanied by video, reports that the head of the State Duma calls for politicians and public figures that receive foreign funding to repent in public. The speaker also asks for the United States to hand over the list of those they have been funding, claiming that list will be shared with the Federal Security Service (FSB).

  • Assessment: This highlights the ongoing efforts by the Russian government to identify and act against perceived enemies, specifically those that have received foreign funding.

Updated Situation Summary

The diplomatic front is marked by continued tensions, with Russia rejecting any territorial compromise and the US appearing cautious in its engagement with Ukraine. Hungary's visit to Kyiv signals ongoing friction. On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to target civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities. Drone warfare remains a central feature, with Ukraine developing a "Drone Line" project. Reports of teenagers serving in the Ukrainian military warrant investigation. The water situation in Donetsk is a growing concern.

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF TEENAGERS SERVING IN AFU (HIGH PRIORITY): Verify the report of 16-year-olds serving in the Ukrainian military. Gather evidence from multiple sources to confirm or refute the claim.
2. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor the evolving relationship between the US and Ukraine, particularly in light of reports of the US Defense Secretary avoiding a one-on-one meeting.
3. TRACK HUNGARY-UKRAINE TENSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor developments related to Hungary's demands for explanations from Ukraine.
4. ANALYZE EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN "DRONE LINE" (HIGH PRIORITY): Gather intelligence on the deployment and capabilities of the Ukrainian "Drone Line." Assess its potential impact on Russian operations.
5. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): Track Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. Assess the impact on the civilian population and Ukraine's overall resilience.
6. ADDRESS WATER SITUATION IN DONETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): If possible, gather information on the severity of the water situation in Donetsk and potential solutions.
7. VERIFY KILLING OF UKRAINIAN FIGHTER (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Investigate the reported killing of Daniil Sverdlov and determine the circumstances of his death.
8. All previous recommendations remain in effect.