Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 15:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (15:09 UTC - 15:38 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• REPORT: RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DNEPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Военкор Котенок reports several Russian advances in the Dnepropetrovsk direction (15:13 UTC):

  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent Russian consolidation on the western outskirts of Uspenivka.
  • Russian forces are attacking Novoaleksandrivka.
  • A Ukrainian stronghold north of Nadezhdinka was captured.
  • Fierce fighting is occurring in the wooded areas southwest of Nadezhdinka.
  • There is no confirmation of Russian entry into Preobrazhenka.
  • Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near the T-0515 road west of Slavyanka, threatening to bypass strongholds towards Oleksiivka and Bohdanivka (southwest of Zaporizhzhia).
  • In Sribne-Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces reached the western outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, but full control has not been established.
  • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. If confirmed, these advances would represent a significant shift in the frontline dynamics in the Dnepropetrovsk direction, potentially threatening Ukrainian defensive lines and opening new avenues for Russian offensives. The source is pro-Russian, and the claims lack independent confirmation.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN VEHICLES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes video footage claiming to show Ukrainian drone strikes destroying multiple Russian vehicles, including a tank, BMP-2, and trucks (Kamaz, Ural) (15:34 UTC).

  • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Ukrainian drone warfare, successfully targeting and destroying Russian military equipment. The footage demonstrates the vulnerability of vehicles to drone attacks, particularly FPV (First-Person View) drones.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN FORCES (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Воин DV publishes video footage claiming to show Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian personnel concentrations in the Polohy direction (15:32 UTC).

  • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Russian drone warfare, targeting Ukrainian personnel. The footage demonstrates the use of thermal imaging to identify and target personnel, even in low-visibility conditions.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• REPORT: HUSITIY STATEMENT ON POSSIBLE RENEWED ATTACKS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCES): Multiple sources (Военкор Котенок) posted the statement of the leader of the Husitiy, stating they will attack Israel again, in case of a failed ceasefire (15:14).

  • Assessment: This may create more tension in the region, and may influence political decisions.

• REPORT: US TREASURY SECRETARY TO VISIT UKRAINE (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Multiple sources (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) report that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will visit Ukraine this week to discuss access to critical minerals (15:17, 15:20, 15:21 UTC). This follows reports of Donald Trump seeking a deal with Ukraine for access to resources in exchange for security assistance.

  • Assessment: This confirms a significant US interest in Ukraine's mineral resources, potentially linking economic considerations to military and political support. This could shape the dynamics of the conflict and future negotiations.

• REPORT: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN CUSTOMS POINTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION): ASTRA reports Ukrainian attacks on two customs points in the Bryansk region, where Russian military personnel were based, resulting in casualties (15:23 UTC). The report claims two guided aerial bombs were used against the Troebortnoe checkpoint, killing one soldier and injuring eight, and a drone attack on the Pogar checkpoint killed a drone operator.

  • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If confirmed, these attacks demonstrate Ukrainian capabilities to target infrastructure and personnel within Russia, escalating cross-border conflict. The use of guided aerial bombs suggests a higher level of precision and destructive power. The source is pro-Russian, but is known to report critically about the Russian state.

• REPORT: RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION INTO IT ENTREPRENEUR (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Рыбарь and Два майора report on the arrest of Yuri Uskov, founder of the IT company iSpring in Mari El, on charges of fraud (15:15, 15:24 UTC). The reports highlight Uskov's support for the Russian military operation in Ukraine, including supplying electronic warfare equipment. The State Duma has reportedly requested clarification on the case.

  • Assessment: This situation highlights potential internal tensions within Russia regarding the treatment of businesses and individuals supporting the war effort. The investigation could have implications for the IT sector and overall support for the military operation.

• CONFIRMED: POWER OUTAGES IN DNIPRO (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report emergency power outages in Dnipro due to damage to distribution networks (15:11, 15:14 UTC). Ukrenergo also announces power restrictions for industry and business from 07:00 to 11:00 and 15:00 to 21:00 (15:18, 15:19 UTC).

  • Assessment: This confirms damage to energy infrastructure, likely resulting from Russian attacks. The power outages will impact civilian life and industrial production, further straining Ukraine's energy system.

Other Developments

• REPORT: RUSSIAN DEPUTY REMOVED FROM DEFENSE COMMITTEE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): ТАСС reports that State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev was removed from the Duma Defense Committee and will join the Regional Policy Committee (15:09 UTC).
  • Assessment: This could indicate a shift in political priorities or a response to Gurulev's performance or statements. It may have implications for defense policy and resource allocation.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation is characterized by intensified fighting in the Dnepropetrovsk direction, with reported Russian advances requiring verification. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to target Russian equipment, while Russian drones target Ukrainian personnel. The confirmed US Treasury Secretary's visit to Ukraine highlights the growing importance of economic considerations, particularly access to critical minerals. Reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian border infrastructure, if confirmed, represent an escalation of cross-border conflict. Power outages in Dnipro underscore the ongoing impact of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DNEPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances. Assess the potential threat to Ukrainian defenses and identify potential countermeasures.

2. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue to monitor Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, particularly in border regions and areas with critical infrastructure.

3. ANALYZE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF US-UKRAINE RESOURCE NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): Assess the potential implications of a US-Ukraine deal for access to mineral resources in exchange for security assistance. Consider the potential impact on the conflict dynamics, negotiations, and international relations.

4. INVESTIGATE REPORTED UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): Verify the reported attacks and assess the extent of damage and casualties. Determine the implications for cross-border conflict and potential Russian responses.

5. MONITOR POWER SITUATION IN DNIPRO (HIGH PRIORITY): Assess the extent of damage to energy infrastructure and the impact of power outages on civilian life and industrial production.

6. ANALYZE IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Monitor the situation with the arrested IT entrepreneur and the removal of the deputy from the Defense Committee. Assess potential implications for Russian internal politics, support for the war effort, and defense policy.

All previous recommendations remain in effect. The situation is marked by escalating fighting, intensified drone warfare, and a growing focus on economic considerations, particularly access to critical minerals. The need for accurate information and careful analysis is paramount.