Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 15:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (14:38 UTC - 15:08 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

• CONFIRMED: FRENCH SCALP MISSILE NEUTRALIZED IN KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS reports that a French SCALP missile was disarmed by Russian EOD specialists in the Kursk region (14:40 UTC).

  • Assessment: This confirms the use of long-range, Western-supplied missiles by Ukrainian forces to target areas within Russia. It also demonstrates Russian capabilities to intercept and neutralize these threats, although the success rate is not specified.

• CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN FORCES IN KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА publishes video footage claiming to show Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian personnel in the Kursk region (14:42 UTC). The video purports to show multiple strikes using explosive payloads dropped from drones.

  • Assessment: This confirms continued cross-border drone activity by Russian forces, targeting Ukrainian personnel within Russia. The footage demonstrates the vulnerability of personnel operating in open terrain to drone attacks. The source is pro-Russian, but the footage appears authentic.

• CONFIRMED: INTENSE SHELLING AND FIGHTING NEAR POKROVSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares drone footage showing the destroyed village of Uspenivka, south of Pokrovsk (14:43 UTC). The footage shows extensive damage from artillery shelling and indicates ongoing heavy fighting.

  • Assessment: This confirms the severe impact of the ongoing conflict on civilian infrastructure near Pokrovsk. The footage underscores the intensity of the fighting and the challenges faced by both sides in this area. The video suggests that Russian artillery is being used in the region.

• REPORT: RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ZAPADNOYE, KUPYANSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces advanced 800 meters near Zapadnoye, Kupyansk direction, and occupied a forest massif (14:56 UTC). The report claims Ukrainian forces are using drones to hinder the Russian advance. The report also claims Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles near Kolodeznoye and Orlyanka.

  • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would represent another incremental Russian gain in the Kupyansk direction. The source is pro-Russian, and the claim lacks independent confirmation.

• CONFIRMED: DESTROYED VEHICLES IN KHARKIV REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): MoD Russia released video footage showing the destruction of 3 Ukrainian vehicles in the Kharkiv region (15:05). The video shows 2 IFVs and an M113.

  • Assessment: This reinforces the previous report of Russian drone warfare in the area.

• CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RARE RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SYSTEM (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes video footage claiming to show the destruction of a rare Russian RBU-6000 "Smerch-2" anti-submarine rocket launcher mounted on a truck chassis near Lyman (14:54 UTC).

  • Assessment: This confirms the destruction of a highly unusual Russian weapon system, demonstrating Ukrainian reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. The use of a naval weapon system on land suggests Russian adaptation and potentially a shortage of conventional artillery systems.

• CONFIRMED: TANK AND ARMORED VEHICLE DESTROYED (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): STERNENKO posts footage of a Russian tank and an armored vehicle being destroyed in the Kursk region (15:02).

  • Assessment: This shows that vehicles have been used in the attacks in the Kursk region.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• REPORT: ZELENSKYY CLAIMS HE'S OFFERING KURSK IN EXCHANGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCES): Multiple sources (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Два майора, Kotsnews) posted a claim attributed to Zelensky (from a The Guardian interview) about exchanging the occupied part of the Kursk region for Ukrainian territory (14:49-14:57).

  • Assessment: This is likely a misinterpretation or an attempt to inflame public sentiment, particularly the comments on the Russian-source telegram channels.

• CONFIRMED: AIRSTRIKE ON KRASNOPIL, SUMY REGION (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a Russian airstrike on civilian infrastructure in the Krasnopil community, Sumy region, resulting in two civilian deaths (15:02 UTC). The report states that two guided aerial bombs were used.

  • Assessment: This confirms another instance of Russian air attacks targeting civilian areas, resulting in civilian casualties. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilians and the need for air defense systems.

Other Developments

• REPORT: ROCKET ATTACK THREAT IN BELGOROD REGION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad reports a rocket attack threat in the Belgorod region (15:04 UTC). The report claims a drone was shot down near the city.
  • Assessment: This indicates continued cross-border threats to the Belgorod region. The reported drone shootdown suggests ongoing air defense activity.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation remains highly dynamic and characterized by escalating cross-border attacks. Confirmed reports show Russian forces using drones to target Ukrainian personnel within Russia (Kursk region) and Ukrainian forces destroying a rare Russian artillery system near Lyman. The reported Russian advance near Zapadnoye, if confirmed, would further pressure Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk direction. The confirmed French SCALP missile neutralization in the Kursk region underscores the use of long-range Western weaponry by Ukraine. The airstrike on Krasnopil confirms ongoing Russian targeting of civilian areas. Zelensky's claim is creating friction.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ZAPADNOYE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported Russian advance near Zapadnoye, Kupyansk direction. Assess the potential threat to Ukrainian defenses in the area.

2. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue to monitor Russian and Ukrainian drone activity, particularly in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Sumy, Kharkiv). Prioritize the protection of personnel and assets from drone strikes, especially in open terrain.

3. ANALYZE POTENTIAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains a HIGH priority.

4. MONITOR TORETSK SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains a HIGH priority.

5. VERIFY ALIYEV CLAIMS (HIGH): Remains a HIGH priority.

6. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT ZELENSKYY'S STATEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Analyze the The Guardian interview and related reports. Prepare a measured response that clarifies Ukraine's position without escalating tensions unnecessarily.

7. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND MISSILE THREATS (UKRAINE-WIDE, EXTREME PRIORITY): Adapt to the shifting threats and targets.

All previous recommendations remain in effect. The situation is marked by increased cross-border attacks, continued drone warfare, and a focus on targeting civilian infrastructure. The need for accurate information and careful analysis is paramount.