Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (14:08 UTC - 14:38 UTC, February 11)

Military Operations & Battlefield Developments

CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN UGV (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) armed with a machine gun (14:12 UTC). The UGV appears to have been disabled or abandoned.
- Assessment: This confirms the ongoing use of FPV drones against Ukrainian ground assets, including UGVs. It highlights the vulnerability of UGVs to drone attacks, especially when operating in exposed areas. The report also acknowledges the role of UGVs in saving the lives of Ukrainian infantry by drawing enemy fire.
CONFIRMED: RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES IN SOUTH DONETSK (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): MoD Russia releases video footage showing FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian equipment in the South Donetsk direction (14:28 UTC). The video claims the destruction of five armored fighting vehicles, 12 field artillery guns, 15 motor vehicles, and more than 10 mortar positions near Velikaya Novosyolka, Dneproenergiya, Novy Komar, and Konstantinopol over the past three days.
- Assessment: This confirms the continued and extensive use of FPV drones by Russian forces in the South Donetsk direction. The claimed number of destroyed Ukrainian assets requires independent verification, but the video footage confirms the destruction of several vehicles.
CONFIRMED: UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN INFANTRY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Оперативний ЗСУ publishes video footage of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infantry groups in the Kherson region (14:34 UTC). The video claims the strikes were carried out by the 1st battalion of the 40th Coastal Defense Brigade.
- Assessment: This confirms the continued use of drones by Ukrainian forces to target Russian infantry, particularly in the Kherson region. The footage demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in open terrain, even against concealed positions.
CLAIM: UKRAINIAN ATTACK ON POWER STATION (RUSSIAN SOURCE): TASS reports that the security system of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has cut off the power supply along the 330kV "Ferroalloy-1" high-voltage line (14:30).
- Assessment: This is presented as an attack, but is likely a malfunction.
CONFIRMED: DRONE FALLS IN MEREFA (CONFIRMED): TsaplienkoUkraineFights posted a video showing a drone exploding in Merefa, in the Kharkov region.
REPORT: RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ANDREEVKA (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Colonelcassad claims Russian forces have advanced near Andreevka, Razliv, and Dachnoe (14:23 UTC). The report suggests that the liberation of Andreevka would open the way to Konstantinopol from the north and accelerate the elimination of the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhovo.
- Assessment: This requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would represent another significant Russian gain in the Kurakhovo direction. The source is pro-Russian, and the claim lacks independent confirmation.
CONFIRMED: "LYUT" BRIGADE RAISES FLAG IN TORETSK (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a video reportedly showing the Ukrainian National Police "Lyut" (Rage) brigade raising a flag in the center of Toretsk (14:35 UTC). The video shows extensive damage to the city, indicating ongoing fighting.
- Assessment: This confirms a Ukrainian presence in Toretsk, but also highlights the intensity of the fighting in the area. The flag-raising is a symbolic act intended to boost morale and project an image of control, although the actual situation on the ground remains contested.

Political & Diplomatic Developments

REPORT: SLOVAKIA THREATENS GAS SUPPLY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Оперативний ЗСУ cites Slovak Prime Minister Fico as stating that Slovakia could cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, describing it as "gas without which Ukraine will freeze" (14:11 UTC).
- Assessment: This represents a potential escalation in the energy conflict between Russia, Ukraine, and European countries. Fico's statement could be interpreted as a threat to leverage energy supplies for political gain. It requires careful monitoring of the situation and diplomatic efforts to ensure energy security.
REPORT: HUNGARIAN OFFICIAL VISITS KYIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Sternenko: reports that Deputy Foreign Minister of Hungary, Levente Mogyor, has arrived in Kyiv.

Other Developments

REPORT: RUSSIAN FSB WARNS OF INCREASED TERRORIST THREATS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad relays a statement from FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov, claiming that Ukrainian special services are intensifying terrorist and sabotage attacks against critical infrastructure in Russia (14:33 UTC).
- Assessment: This is likely another preemptive disinformation attempt or a justification for further crackdowns within Russia. While the threat of Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure is real, the FSB's claim should be treated with skepticism, particularly regarding the scale and intent.
REPORT: ALIYEV CONTINUES TO DISMANTLE RUSSIAN HOUSE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Colonelcassad posted a video of people dismantling the "Russian House" in Baku.
REPORT: FIGHTERS IN KHARKIV (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦: published a video about fighters in Kharkiv protecting the city against drones.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation remains highly dynamic, with confirmed reports of continued drone warfare by both sides. Ukrainian forces continue to use drones to target Russian infantry, including successful strikes in the Kherson region. Russian forces are heavily relying on FPV drones, with confirmed strikes on Ukrainian UGVs and vehicles. The reported Russian advance near Andreevka, if confirmed, would further intensify the pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kurakhovo direction. The "Lyut" brigade's flag-raising in Toretsk indicates a Ukrainian presence, but also underscores the contested nature of the city. Politically, Fico's statement regarding potential gas supply cuts to Ukraine represents a new escalation point.

Updated Recommendations

VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ANDREEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported Russian advance near Andreevka, Razliv, and Dachnoe. Assess the potential threat to Ukrainian defenses in the Kurakhovo direction.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue to monitor Russian and Ukrainian drone activity. Prioritize the protection of UGVs and other vulnerable ground assets from FPV drone strikes. Develop and implement counter-drone tactics, including electronic warfare measures.
ANALYZE POTENTIAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY): Assess the potential impact of Slovak gas supply cuts on Ukraine's energy security. Develop contingency plans for alternative energy sources and diplomatic efforts to mitigate the threat.
MONITOR TORETSK SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Despite the "Lyut" brigade's presence, continue to monitor the situation in Toretsk closely. Prepare for potential further Russian offensive actions.
VERIFY ALIYEV CLAIMS (HIGH): Verify the status of "Russian House".

All previous recommendations remain in effect. The situation is marked by intense fighting, increasing reliance on drone warfare, and potential new escalations in the energy sector. Continuous monitoring and adaptation are crucial.