Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 13:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (13:09 UTC - 13:38 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• NO NEW US MILITARY AID ANNOUNCEMENT (CONFIRMED, US SOURCE): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, citing AP, reports that the new head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegset, will not announce new military aid for Ukraine during his first foreign trip to Europe. This trip includes visits to Germany and Poland and participation in a meeting of the Ukraine contact group in Brussels.

  • Assessment: This is a significant development, indicating a potential pause or shift in US military aid policy. It could reflect internal political debates, budgetary constraints, or a re-evaluation of the aid strategy. It is essential to monitor further announcements and official statements from the US to determine the long-term implications.

• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN RBU-6000 (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Оперативний ЗСУ reports and provides video evidence of Ukrainian drone operators from the 63rd Brigade destroying a Russian RBU-6000 anti-submarine rocket launcher mounted on a Ural truck chassis in the Lyman direction.

  • Assessment: This confirms continued Ukrainian use of drones for precision strikes against unconventional Russian military equipment. The RBU-6000 is an older system originally designed for naval use, indicating Russian adaptation of older equipment for land warfare. This strike highlights Ukrainian capability to identify and neutralize such threats.

• AIR ACTIVITY ON EASTERN FRONT (CONFIRMED):

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports activity by enemy tactical aviation.
  • Assessment: This confirms activity of Russian aircraft on the battlefield.

• RUSSIAN STRIKES (CONFIRMED RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны: Reports that Russian forces have begun eliminating the enemy in Dnipropetrovsk region. Claims that drone operators discovered a UAV team, van, and valuable equipment. * Assessment: This indicates an ongoing Russian military operation in the region.

• DRONE STRIKE ON ARMORED VEHICLE (CONFIRMED):

  • ТАСС: Reports that a calculation of an FPV drone from the "North" group of troops destroyed a BBM during rotation in Kharkiv.
  • Assessment: Confirms the use of drones for reconnaissance, monitoring, and attacks.

• BRIDGE DAMAGE (REPORTED):

  • Два майора: Reports that there was an accident on a Polish shipyard with a Finnish patrol ship, resulting in damage.
  • Assessment: This potentially weakens the Finnish border guard, which is relevant because they have been seizing Russian assets.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES (REPORT):

  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports that Russian forces have advanced east of Zelenovka and are developing offensive in Dachnoe.
  • Assessment: This indicates ongoing Russian offensive in the region.

• ANOTHER ANGAR DESTROYED:

• Kotsnews: Reports that UAV operators destroyed two YPR-765 APCs in an angar in the Kharkiv region.

• Assessment: This indicates ongoing Russian precision strikes in the region.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• POTENTIAL TRUMP ADMINISTRATION VISIT TO RUSSIA (REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION): ASTRA reports a US business jet landed at Moscow's Vnukovo airport, speculating it might be someone from the Trump administration. Rosaviatsia claims it was a "one-time technical flight within the framework of normal humanitarian interaction." Peskov denies plans for contact.

  • Assessment: This requires careful monitoring and verification. If confirmed as a Trump administration visit, it would be a highly significant development, potentially signaling backchannel negotiations or a shift in US-Russia relations. However, the official denial and "humanitarian" explanation must be considered. The potential for disinformation is high.

• ALLEGED TERRORIST PLOT IN RUSSIA (CLAIM):

• Alex Parker Returns: Claims that an individual from Tajikistan attempted to blow up a train with an IED. Claims that the FSB hid information for a year.

Ongoing Situations

• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka are concerning. Unchanged.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOHATYRSKE AND SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• Reports of fighting (EXTREME PRIORITY): Fighting continues across multiple fronts.
• Alleged Atrocities in Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY): Unchanged. Remains the highest overall priority for investigation.
• Drone strikes (HIGH): Drone strikes are ongoing, confirming use on both sides.

Other

• Internal Russian Reports (LOW/IRRELEVANT):

  • ТАСС: Reports that Britain has imposed sanctions against six citizens and two Russian companies, allegedly for illegal activities in cyberspace.
  • ТАСС: Reports that Volodin ordered Piskarev to look into the situation with the detention of IT company founder Yuri Uskov.
  • Север.Реалии: Reports that Russia received its lowest score in history in the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index.

• Reports from Ukraine (LOW):

  • РБК-Україна: Reports that foreigners in the Ukrainian military must pass a polygraph.

• Reports of the Middle East (LOW):

  • Janus Putkonen: Reports that there will likely be new military activity in the Middle East.

• Claims of childfree propaganda: Russia is banning "childfree ideology." Unchanged.

• Gas price increase: Unchanged.

• Space X satellites: Claims of problems with Starlink satellites due to solar flares.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant developments are the confirmed lack of a new US military aid announcement during the Pentagon chief's European trip, and the reported but unconfirmed potential visit of a Trump administration representative to Moscow. The first indicates a possible pause or shift in US aid policy, with significant implications for Ukraine's defense capabilities. The second, if confirmed, could signal backchannel negotiations or a shift in US-Russia relations, which would drastically alter the strategic landscape. The Ukrainian destruction of a Russian RBU-6000 confirms continued drone warfare and the targeting of unconventional Russian military assets. The rest of the reports remain largely unchanged.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All previous recommendations remain in effect.

2. MONITOR US AID POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY): Closely track all official statements and announcements from the US regarding military aid to Ukraine. Analyze the implications of any changes in policy for Ukrainian defense capabilities and resource allocation.

3. VERIFY POTENTIAL TRUMP ADMINISTRATION VISIT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported visit of a Trump administration representative to Moscow. If confirmed, determine the purpose and participants of the visit. Analyze the potential implications for US-Russia relations and the conflict in Ukraine.

4. Analyze captured soldiers (HIGH): Analyze statements of the captured Ukrainian soldiers. Unchanged.

The situation remains dynamic and uncertain. The potential shifts in US policy and the ongoing military activity require continuous monitoring and analysis. The priorities remain verifying claimed Russian advances, confirming the situation in Kyiv, and investigating the reported incidents in Russia. The alleged atrocity in Kursk, potential shift in US policy, and potential visit of a Trump administration representative remain the highest overall priorities for investigation and analysis.