Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 13:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (12:38 UTC - 13:08 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND LOSSES (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Басурин о главном (12:38 UTC) claims continued Russian advances across the entire line of contact in Donbas. Reports:

  • Ukrainian forces lost over 850 personnel.
  • Strikes targeted areas including Zvanivka, Katerynivka, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bilytske, Rodynske, Novosergievka, Andriivka, Uspenivka, Dymytriv, and Udachne in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
  • Claims destruction of dozens of pieces of equipment, including a tank and over 10 artillery pieces (two foreign-made).
  • Claims Russian MoD report of Yasenove coming under control of the "Central" group of forces.
  • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. The widespread nature of the claimed strikes and losses suggests either a major offensive or potentially exaggerated reporting.

• DRONE STRIKES ON ABANDONED UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Сливочный каприз (13:08 UTC) reports FPV drone strikes on an abandoned Ukrainian FV103 Spartan armored personnel carrier near Mykolaivka, in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar. Provides coordinates (48.58447, 37.81259) and states the distance from the line of contact is up to 1 km. Includes video.

• BELGOROD REGION AIR ATTACKS AND DAMAGE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Два майора (13:01 UTC), citing the Governor of Belgorod, reports multiple incidents of aerial attacks and drone strikes in the Belgorod region:

  • Belgorod city: Windows broken in an apartment building.
  • Maysky settlement (Belgorodsky district): Roof damage to a private house.
  • Shelaevo village (Valuysky district): Two drone attacks on a parked KAMAZ truck, damaging glazing, body, and wheels.
  • Tserkovny farm (Belgorodsky district): FPV drone strike on an agricultural enterprise, damaging windows, roof, and entrance of a production building.
  • Oktyabrsky settlement: Shelling, damaging windows in 13 apartments in two apartment buildings and damaging two cars with shrapnel.
  • Borisovka village (Volokonovsky district): Shelling, damaging windows, facades, and fences in an administrative building and two social facilities. A summer kitchen was destroyed at one social facility.
  • Konovalovo village: Explosive device dropped from a drone, damaging windows and body of a car.
  • Assessment: This confirms continued cross-border attacks targeting both civilian and potentially military-linked infrastructure in the Belgorod region. The use of FPV drones suggests an attempt at precision targeting, although civilian damage is evident.

• RUSSIAN DESTROYS TWO APCs (CONFIRMED RUSSIAN SOURCE): MoD Russia (12:58): FPV drone teams of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralised two Western-made AFU armoured personnel carriers in Kharkov region.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• FURTHER CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Воин DV (13:04 UTC), citing don_partizan, reports on Russian advances and tactical maneuvers in the South Donetsk direction:

  • Claims Russian forces are developing an offensive in Dachne, Andriivka, and Zaporizhzhia, accumulating reserves and conducting maneuvers to encircle Ukrainian units.
  • Reports continued accumulation of Russian reserves in the western part of Dachne and pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
  • Claims expansion of the zone of operational control by 4 km east of Zelenivka, potentially cutting off withdrawal routes for Ukrainian forces from Dachne and reaching Ułakły.
  • Claims full control of the center of Andriivka by Russian forces, with ongoing offensive actions towards the western part of the village.
  • Reports tactical maneuvers near Konstantynopil and Rozliv to create conditions for encirclement.
  • Claims tactical successes in Zaporizhzhia, with Russian forces advancing into the central part of the settlement.
  • Claims expansion of the zone of operational control by 300 meters near Novy Komar.
  • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. The reports suggest a concerted Russian offensive effort in this sector, with multiple points of pressure and potential encirclement attempts.

• CLAIMS ABOUT UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Kotsnews: Reports that 2 soldiers from the 22nd brigade have been captured.

• Alex Parker Returns: Claims that Ukraine is using a sperm bank as a means to get contact information from Russian women and hack them.

• Claims of Confusion (REPORT):

• Alex Parker Returns: Claims that everything is bad and there's a lot of confusion.

• Claims About Price Increase (REPORT):

  • Colonelcassad: Claims that the gas price in Europe has risen to $622 per 1,000 cubic meters. Claims that this is a result of Russian strikes on Ukrainian gas fields in Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

• Claims of Childfree Propaganda (REPORT): РБК-Україна: Reports that Putin is trying to fix a demographic issue by banning "childfree ideology."

• UKRAINIAN CLAIMS (EXTENSIVE, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

• Zelenskiy / Official: Claims that over $1B has been donated through United24.

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Reports that 4 Ukrainian children have been saved from Russian occupation.

• Офіс Генерального прокурора: Reports that a Ukrainian athlete has been found guilty of supporting and gathering funds for the Russian army.

Ongoing Situations

• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka are concerning.

Other

• Internal Russian Reports (LOW/IRRELEVANT):

  • ТАСС: Reports that businessman Chichvarkin has been accused of participating in an undesirable organization.
  • Mash на Донбассе: Reports on the inability to repair an old building.
  • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники: Reports that a 20 year old was tricked into joining the army.
  • ТАСС: Reports that David Beckham has registered his trademark.

• Reported Ukrainian Economic Problems (LOW):

  • STERNENKO: Reports that Japan is providing a $58M loan to Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOHATYRSKE AND SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Multiple Russian sources continue to claim significant advances in these areas, with potential for encirclements and disruption of Ukrainian supply lines. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION REMAINS THE ABSOLUTE HIGHEST PRIORITY.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of fighting across multiple locations highlight the ongoing intensity of the conflict, with particular focus on the Kupiansk and South Donetsk directions.
• CONFIRMED CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): The reports of attacks in the Belgorod region confirm continued cross-border strikes, targeting both civilian and military-linked infrastructure.
• DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of FPV drone strikes on both sides underscore the continued importance of this technology on the battlefield.
• INFORMATION WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Claims and counterclaims about territorial gains, losses, and the targeting of civilian infrastructure highlight the ongoing struggle for narrative control.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

2. Analyze captured soldiers (HIGH): Analyze statements of the captured Ukrainian soldiers.

The situation remains highly volatile. The consistent reports of Russian advances, coupled with continued cross-border attacks and the ongoing use of drones, require constant monitoring and analysis. Immediate verification of the claimed Russian gains remains the highest priority. The reported cyberattack and political instability in Romania, coupled with the economic considerations related to energy infrastructure, highlight the multifaceted nature of the conflict.