Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 12:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (12:09 UTC - 12:38 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• Air Attacks on Sumy Oblast (CONFIRMED): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:20 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
• Cyberattack Disrupts Heating in Poltava (CONFIRMED): РБК-Україна (12:25 UTC) reports a cyberattack on "Poltavaoblenergo" this morning, causing a loss of communication with the dispatcher service and 56 boiler houses. 14 boiler houses were shut down, leaving half of Poltava without heating. Manual operation has been restored, and efforts are underway to restore the software and communication.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES - BOHATYRSKE DIRECTION (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, EXTREME PRIORITY): Военкор Котенок (12:09 UTC) provides a detailed report of escalating Russian pressure in the "Bogatyrskoe" direction:

  • Claims Russian advances on "almost all sections."
  • Claims Andriivka is almost entirely under Russian control (except for a few houses in the northwest).
  • Reports Russian forces are attempting to encircle Konstantynopil from the north and southeast, with heavy losses inflicted on Ukrainian defenders.
  • Claims Russian forces are threatening the supply route to Konstantynopil from the west by pressuring Bohatyr and Rozlyv.
  • Reports Russian strikes on Oleksiivka (north of Bohatyr, across the river).
  • Claims Ukrainian forces made unsuccessful attempts to advance in Zverevo and managed to make some gains, but did not take all of, Pischane.
  • Claims Russian forces used ground drones with remote-controlled machine guns near Zverevo and Pischane. * Reports Russian counterattacks against Ukrainian forces in the area.
  • Claims Russian advances in the eastern part of Novosergievka, south of Udachne and north of the Solena River.
  • Assessment: This report suggests a SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian position in this area, with potential for a major Russian breakthrough. The claims of encirclement attempts and disruption of supply routes are particularly concerning. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION IS CRITICAL.

• INCREASED ENEMY ACTIVITY AROUND ANDRIIVKA (CLAIMED): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (12:21) reports that constant pressure from Russian forces on Pershotravneve and Andriivka is leading to control increase.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES WEST OF SLOVYANKA (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Военкор Котенок (12:20 UTC) reports that Russian forces broke through the T-0515 road west of Slovyanka.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES TOWARD ULAKLY (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Военкор Котенок (12:20 UTC) reports Russian attacks west and east of Zelenivka, heading towards Ulakly.

• RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (EXTENSIVE, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

• *ТАСС (12:10)*: Reports members involved in a plot of treason wanted to plant a bomb on the car of an FSB employee.
  

• UKRAINIAN MoD CLAIMS (EXTENSIVE, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

  • Оперативний ЗСУ (12:03): Reports that two men impersonating police officers kidnapped mobilized men in the Chernihiv region.

• Claims about Boris Nemtsov's Assassin (REPORT): Север.Реалии(12:10): Reports that one of Boris Nemtsov's assassins has been found in Mariupol, engaging in illegal scrap trade.

• Claims of Closing Russian House in Baku (REPORT): WarGonzo (12:15): Reports that Russian House is shutting down in Baku, Azerbaijan due to claims from the local officials, and that there are threats from Moscow.

• Reported Strike on Ukrainian FPV Antenna (REPORT):

• Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (12:17) and Старше Эдды (12:19): Claims of strike on Ukrainian FPV antenna.

• Destroyed Ukrainian Armor (REPORT):

• ТАСС (12:17): Reports that FPV drones destroyed 3 pieces of Ukrainian armor.

• Claims about Ukrainian Sabotage (REPORT): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:17): Reports that Ukraine is preparing for sabotage operations.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPYANSK (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:34): Claims of advances West of Zakhidne, widening the bridgehead.

• HAMAS Negotiation (REPORT): ТАСС (12:35): Reports that Hamas claims that Israel is responsible for agreement negotiations.

• Drone Delivery (REPORT): STERNENKO (12:35): Reports that the Ukrainian military received 260 drones.

• FIGHTING CONTINUES (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES): Reports continue of intense fighting in several locations, confirming ongoing combat activity.

Ongoing Situations

• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka are concerning.
• Propaganda (ONGOING):
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:22) released a video of Russian soldiers.
• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (12:32): Released a video of a destroyed Russian convoy.
• Воин DV (12:33): Posts birthday message to military author.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (12:23): Posts message to the fallen Ukrainian soldier.
• Colonelcassad (12:14): Posts video of soldiers asking Putin to return Dzerzhinsky statue.
• Kotsnews (12:31): Claims that Ukraine and the West are trying to close Russia's access to the Baltic Sea.

Other

• Internal Russian Reports (LOW/IRRELEVANT):

  • ТАСС (12:03): Reports that the bill on holding traitors accountable has been re-submitted.
  • ASTRA (12:20): Reports that police officers left a man to die in the woods.
  • Mash на Донбассе (12:04): Reports on the man abusing dogs.
  • ТАСС (12:05): Reports that the Israeli ambassador has left the Russian foreign ministry.

• Басурин о главном (12:08): Reports that Basurin's radio show is available on RuTube.

• Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (12:02): Posts recruitment notice for African Corps.

• Reported Ukrainian Economic Problems (LOW):

  • РБК-Україна (12:25): Reports that the Ukrainian steel industry could lose a lot of money from US tariffs.

• ROMANIAN PRESIDENT RESIGNATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Рыбарь (12:26 UTC) reports that Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has resigned after 10 years in power, following accusations of election interference and a failed impeachment attempt. He will remain as acting president until new elections on May 4.

• UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASES (HIGH PRIORITY): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:24 UTC) clarifies that the nuclear reactors to be purchased by Ukraine will be acquired from Bulgaria, which had previously purchased them from Russia. This is intended to prevent any benefit to Russia from the transaction.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOHATYRSKE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY): The detailed report from Военкор Котенок paints a grim picture for Ukrainian forces, with claims of Russian advances on multiple fronts, encirclement attempts, and disruption of supply routes. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Reports of fighting across multiple locations highlight the ongoing intensity of the conflict.
• AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed air attacks in Sumy Oblast, along with the earlier strikes on Zolochiv, underscore the persistent air threat.
• CYBERATTACK IMPACTS CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY): The cyberattack on Poltava's heating system demonstrates the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and the potential for widespread disruption and humanitarian consequences.
• RUSSIAN POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN ROMANIA (HIGH PRIORITY): The resignation of the Romanian President raises concerns about potential instability in a key NATO member and neighbor of Ukraine.
• RUSSIAN UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PURCHASES (HIGH PRIORITY): The clarification about the purchase of nuclear reactors from Bulgaria is significant, as it aims to secure vital energy infrastructure without benefiting Russia.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOHATYRSKE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION REQUIRED):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to verify the claims made by Военкор Котенок.
   • Prioritize assessment of the reported encirclement attempts and potential disruption of Ukrainian supply routes.
   • Determine the status of Andriivka and the extent of Russian control.
   • Assess the credibility of Военкор Котенок as a source, given the potential for bias.
   • Cross reference all claims with other information sources.

2. ADDRESS CYBERSECURITY VULNERABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the cybersecurity posture of critical infrastructure, particularly energy systems.
   • Implement enhanced security measures to prevent future cyberattacks.
   • Develop contingency plans for restoring services in the event of successful attacks.

3. MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the political situation in Romania, including the reasons for the President's resignation and the upcoming elections.
   • Assess the potential impact on regional stability, NATO cohesion, and support for Ukraine.
   • Develop contingency plans for potential scenarios, including increased Russian influence or instability in Romania.

4. MONITOR SITUATION IN ANDRIIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Deploy all available intelligence assets to gather information about the claim that Russian forces are increasing their control zone.
• Develop an appropriate response to the situation in Andriivka.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is extremely critical, with multiple reports suggesting major Russian advancements, and potential significant disruptions to infrastructure. Immediate verification of the Russian movements is the absolute highest priority, followed by the development and implementation of effective countermeasures. The reported claims of cyberattacks, political instability in the region, and false flag operations are concerning. The civilian casualties in Zolochiv highlight the humanitarian cost of the conflict.