Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 12:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (11:38 UTC - 12:08 UTC, February 11)

Confirmed Actions and Status Updates

• Air Raid Alert Lifted - Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:40 UTC): Announced the end of the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The ballistic missile threat has also been lifted.
• Russian Airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIRMED, CASUALTY UPDATE): ASTRA (11:42 UTC) reports six people injured in the airstrikes on Zolochiv. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (11:53 UTC) Provides a detailed report confirming seven people injured, including women aged 67, 93, 43, and 68, two men aged 76 and 69, and a 12-year-old boy. Three were hospitalized. Seven guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used, two hitting Zolochiv itself, destroying two houses and damaging 11. Other strikes hit: outskirts of Svitlychne (1 KAB), near Orishanka (2 KAB), open areas of Berezivka (1 KAB), and open areas of Makarykha (1 KAB), with no casualties or damage reported in these locations. STERNENKO (11:54) also confirms the strikes and casualties. (HIGH PRIORITY - HUMANITARIAN CONCERN)
• Air Defense Activity in Belgorod (CONFIRMED): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:29) and TACC (12:07) reports air defense activity in Belgorod, with several aerial targets intercepted.

Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)

• Russian Advances Near Vozdvyzhenka (CLAIMED, SIGNIFICANT, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

  • Z комитет + карта СВО (11:59 UTC) provides map updates seemingly showing Russian advances near Vozdvyzhenka, Vodyane 2, and Baranovka.

• Военкор Котенок (12:02 UTC) reports Russian forces taking control of a road junction near Malynivka and attacking heights east of Malynivka. Claims ongoing fighting in Vodyane Druhe and near Berezivka. Claims intense fighting for Yelyzavetivka. Reports attacks from Baranovka and the ravine towards Zelene Pole.

• Assessment: HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY, MAP UPDATES SUGGEST CHANGES. CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE REPORTED.

• Ukrainian "False Flag" Operations (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT): Оперативний ЗСУ (11:52 UTC) reports an alert from the Ukrainian perspective that Russia may be preparing "false flag" operations to blame Ukraine. TACC (11:42 UTC), citing the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), claims Ukrainian special services, with Western support, are preparing "provocations." TACC (11:47) further claims that a foreign ship in the Baltic may be blown up. Два майора (11:47) claims that the SVR states that the goal is to prompt NATO to close Russia's access to the Baltic Sea.

• Ukrainian Special Services Planning Attacks on Russian Opposition (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): TACC (11:43 UTC), citing the SVR, claims Ukrainian special services, in cooperation with European counterparts, are preparing attacks on Russian opposition figures abroad.

• Ukrainian Forces Recruiting from Asia and Middle East (CLAIMED): Another report suggests the SVR claims that Ukraine is paying $20,000 for individuals.

• Russian MoD Claims (EXTENSIVE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

  • MoD Russia (11:13 UTC): Claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attempt to "invade" Russian territory in the Kursk region, inflicting heavy losses. Claims total Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction since the start of hostilities exceed 59,250 troops and extensive equipment. These numbers are likely highly inflated and require independent verification.

Ongoing Situations

• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY): The multiple, reinforcing claims of significant Russian advances, especially west of Velyka Novosilka, and now also near Vozdvyzhenka, are of paramount concern.
• Propaganda (ONGOING):
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС releases a video titled "From the authors of the first robotic operation".
  • Mash на Донбассе reports on dog abuse.

Other

• Internal Russian Reports (LOW/IRRELEVANT): Reports on internal Russian matters (name change laws, butter shortages, foreign citizen checks) continue. These are of low priority unless they directly impact military operations.
• Ukrainian Bill: A bill allowing for the purchase of Russian-made equipment for Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Plant.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Multiple sources, including maps, strongly suggest significant Russian advances, now including the area near Vozdvyzhenka. This is the most critical development and requires immediate verification.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): The claims of Russian advances, reinforced by multiple sources and map updates, maintain the extreme concern and the immediate need for decisive action.
• AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY): The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia was lifted, but the confirmed airstrikes on Zolochiv, resulting in civilian casualties, highlight the humanitarian impact, and the constant risk of air attacks.
• Claims of Russian False Flag Operations (HIGH PRIORITY): Need confirmation

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION REQUIRED):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • Critically analyze the map updates provided by Z комитет + карта СВО, comparing them to previous reports and other intelligence sources.
   • Specifically focus on verifying the claims of advances near Vozdvyzhenka.
   • Assess the credibility of all sources reporting advances, given the multiple, reinforcing claims.
   • Cross-reference all claims with other sources.

2. ASSESS RUSSIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES AND "ROADS OF DEATH" CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.

3. ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF ZOLOCHIV AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • Provide continued support to the victims of the airstrikes.

4. Assess Claims of False Flag Operations (High Priority): Gather any relevant intelligence on possible false flag operations.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is extremely critical, with multiple sources and map updates strongly suggesting significant Russian advances near Vozdvyzhenka, in addition to west of Velyka Novosilka. Immediate verification of these claims is the absolute highest priority, followed by the development and implementation of effective countermeasures. The reported claims of false flag operations are concerning. The civilian casualties in Zolochiv highlight the humanitarian cost of the conflict.