Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 11:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (11:08 UTC - 11:38 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
Ballistic Missile Threat (CONFIRMED, EXPANDED AREA):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile use from the east. (EXTREME PRIORITY)
Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED):🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert. (EXTREME PRIORITY)
Russian Airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIRMED, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES):РБК-Україна reports Russian airstrikes on Zolochiv, destroying a private house and damaging 13 others. Three people were rescued from the rubble, and seven civilians, including a 12-year-old boy, were injured. (HIGH PRIORITY - HUMANITARIAN CONCERN)
FPV Drones Destroy YPR-765 APCs (CONFIRMED):TACC confirms that FPV Drones of the "West" group destroyed two YPR-765 APCs.
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
Russian Advances West of Velyka Novosilka (CLAIMED, EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (again) reports Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka, Rivnopil', and Rozdil'ne.
Z комитет + карта СВО provides map updates seemingly supporting these claims, showing changes in territorial control.
Рыбарь reports on the official liberation of Yasenove and further advances towards Sribne, with claims that Sribne itself may have been liberated.
Assessment: EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY, MULTIPLE SOURCES REPORTING ADVANCES, MAPS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THIS IS THE MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
Russian "Roads of Death" in South Donetsk Direction (CLAIMED, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT):Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims that FPV drones of the "Vostok" group destroyed, in the last three days, 5 armored fighting vehicles, 12 artillery pieces, 15 cars, and more than 10 mortar positions near Velyka Novosilka, Dniproenerhiya, Novyi Komar, and Kostiantynopil. (HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY, ASSESS DRONE CAPABILITIES, CORROBORATE WITH OTHER SOURCES)
Drone Control Center Destroyed (CLAIMED):Colonelcassad claims that the D-30 artillery gun destroyed the hidden UAV control point.
Russian Special Forces at Kharkiv (CLAIMED):Kadyrov_95 reports the operation of Special Forces "AKHMAT" in the Kharkiv area.
Ongoing Situations
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY): The multiple, reinforcing claims of significant Russian advances, especially west of Velyka Novosilka, are of paramount concern. The reported drone activity adds another layer of complexity.
Propaganda (ONGOING):
Два майора comments on Klichko.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС publishes a video with text about an old battle.
Fighterbomber published a video with the title "The greatest joy of a Ukrainian is when a UMPK arrives at the positions of another Ukrainian".
Other
Internal Russian Reports (LOW/IRRELEVANT): Various reports on internal Russian matters (pensions, flight from Washington, Russian House in Baku, fraud laws) continue. These are of low priority unless they directly impact military operations.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY):Multiple sources, including maps, strongly suggest significant Russian advances west of Velyka Novosilka. This is the most critical development and requires immediate verification.
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): The claims of Russian advances, reinforced by multiple sources and map updates, maintain the extreme concern and the immediate need for decisive action. The claimed drone strikes further complicate the situation.
AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY): The ballistic missile threat from the east and the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia underscore the ongoing and widespread air threat. The confirmed airstrikes on Zolochiv, resulting in civilian casualties, highlight the humanitarian impact.
Confirmed YPR-765 APCs destroyed.
Updated Recommendations
IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION REQUIRED):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
Critically analyze the map updates provided by Z комитет + карта СВО and Рыбарь, comparing them to previous reports and other intelligence sources.
Prioritize verification of the claimed liberation of Sribne.
Assess the credibility of all sources reporting advances, given the multiple, reinforcing claims.
Cross-reference all claims with other sources.
ASSESS RUSSIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES AND "ROADS OF DEATH" CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
Specifically investigate the claims made by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition regarding extensive drone strikes in the South Donetsk direction.
Assess the potential impact of these claimed drone capabilities on Ukrainian operations.
RESPOND TO AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Activate air defenses in response to the ballistic missile threat from the east and the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia.
Prioritize civilian protection and issue public warnings as necessary.
ADDRESS HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF ZOLOCHIV AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY):
Provide immediate support to the victims of the airstrikes, including medical care, shelter, and essential supplies.
Document the damage and casualties for potential war crimes investigations.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is extremely critical, with multiple sources and map updates strongly suggesting significant Russian advances west of Velyka Novosilka. Immediate verification of these claims is the absolute highest priority, followed by the development and implementation of effective countermeasures. The reported Russian drone activity and the renewed ballistic missile threat further escalate the danger. The civilian casualties in Zolochiv highlight the humanitarian cost of the conflict.
