Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 11:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (10:38 UTC - 11:08 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (CONFIRMED):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports the ballistic missile threat has been lifted. (REDUCED PRIORITY)
Military Pension Indexation (CONFIRMED):ТАСС reports that funds for a 9.5% indexation of military pensions, including pensions for widows of military personnel, have been allocated. (LOW PRIORITY - RUSSIAN INTERNAL MATTER)
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
Russian Advances West of Velyka Novosilka (CLAIMED, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT):Colonelcassad further reports Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka, Rivnopil', and Rozdil'ne. (EXTREME PRIORITY - VERIFY, REINFORCEMENT OF PREVIOUS CLAIM)
Additional claims on advancement
Сливочный каприз
Russian Drone Strikes in Sumy Region (CLAIMED):Colonelcassad publishes a video compilation purportedly showing Russian fiber-optic drone strikes on Ukrainian transport, armored vehicles, and artillery in the Sumy region. (HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY, ASSESS DRONE CAPABILITIES)
Ukrainian Military Losses in Kursk Region (CLAIMED):ТАСС, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, claims Ukrainian forces lost over 300 personnel, two tanks, and 11 armored fighting vehicles in the Kursk direction. (HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY, CORROBORATE WITH OTHER SOURCES)
Ukrainian Recruitment of Russians by Special Services (CLAIMED):ТАСС, citing Alexander Bortnikov, claims Ukrainian special services are intensifying efforts to recruit Russian citizens to commit crimes. He alleges many prevented terrorist attacks in Russia were directed by Ukrainian handlers. (MEDIUM PRIORITY - ASSESS PROPAGANDA VALUE, MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG OPERATIONS)
Ongoing Situations
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY): The repeated claims of Russian advances, reinforced by multiple sources, maintain the extreme concern and need for verification.
Other
Russian Internal Matters:
A flight from Washington to Moscow happened today, declared as part of a "humanitarian operation".
The Russian ambassador was met in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Russian House in Baku suspends activities after a request by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Propaganda and Disinformation:
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: publishes a video of a Russian military lunch.
Diplomatic:
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS: claims that the US Ambassador Lynn Tracy met with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY):Multiple sources reinforce claims of Russian advances, especially west of Velyka Novosilka. This requires immediate verification and continued decisive action. The claimed drone strikes in Sumy region add another layer of complexity.
AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged, but the lifting of the ballistic missile threat provides a temporary reprieve.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (REDUCED, BUT ONGOING): The immediate threat has been lifted, but vigilance must be maintained.
WATER SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN DNR (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
Prioritize verification of the reinforced claims of advances near Velyka Novosilka reported by Colonelcassad.
Assess the credibility of Colonelcassad as a source, given the multiple reports.
Cross-reference all claimed advances with independent sources, including Ukrainian military reports, if available.
ASSESS RUSSIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY):
Verify the authenticity of the Colonelcassad video showing drone strikes.
Analyze the video to determine the type of drones used, their range, payload, and targeting capabilities.
Assess the effectiveness of these drones against Ukrainian assets.
Develop and implement countermeasures to mitigate the threat, including improved air defenses, electronic warfare, and camouflage techniques.
VERIFY CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY):
Attempt to corroborate the Russian Ministry of Defense claims of Ukrainian losses through independent sources, including Ukrainian military reports, open-source intelligence, and intercepted communications.
Assess the reliability of the Russian Ministry of Defense as a source of information, given its potential for propaganda.
MONITOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN FALSE FLAG OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Be vigilant for potential false flag operations following the claims of Ukrainian recruitment of Russian citizens for terrorist acts.
Analyze any reported incidents for inconsistencies or evidence of staging.
MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain all previous recommendations, despite the lifting of the immediate ballistic missile threat.
MONITOR WATER SUPPLY DISRUPTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
The situation remains extremely critical, with multiple reports reinforcing claims of significant Russian advances, particularly west of Velyka Novosilka. Immediate verification of these claims is the absolute highest priority, followed by the development and implementation of effective countermeasures. The reported Russian drone activity in the Sumy region introduces a new threat that requires urgent assessment and mitigation. The claimed high Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region also need verification.
