Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 10:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (10:08 UTC - 10:38 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
Zolochiv Attack: Increased Casualty Count (CONFIRMED):Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports the number of injured in the guided aerial bomb attack on Zolochiv has risen to six. Three were hospitalized, and three received on-site medical assistance. (EXTREME PRIORITY - CIVILIAN CASUALTIES)
Water Supply Disruption in DNR (CONFIRMED):Mash на Донбассе reports a disruption in water supply in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) due to a burst pipe on the Don-Donbass water conduit. Repair crews are working, with repairs expected by February 12th. (MEDIUM PRIORITY - INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT)
Awards Ceremony for Azov Brigade:Оперативний ЗСУ shows photos and reports that soldiers from the 2nd Battalion of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" who participate in hostilities in the Toretsk direction were awarded.
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
Russian Advance Near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne (CLAIMED, HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT):Сливочный каприз claims a Russian motorized rifle unit attack on the Andreevka-Yasenovo line, with a reported advance of up to 3km westward, reaching new positions along the Krasnoarmeisk-Velikaya Novoselka highway north of Andreevka. Coordinates provided: 48.065771, 37.078965. (EXTREME PRIORITY - VERIFY AND RESPOND)
Russian Advances Near Sribne, Zaporizhzhia, and Uspenivka (CLAIMED):Z комитет + карта СВО claims Russian advances near Sribne, Zaporizhzhia, and Uspenivka. (HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY AND ASSESS)
Russian Advances West of Velyka Novosilka (CLAIMED):Colonelcassad reports Russian advances west of Velyka Novosilka, including claims of pushing Ukrainian forces back up to 1.5 km deep and over 3 km wide in some areas, and expanding control up to 4 km east of Zelenivka, potentially cutting off Ukrainian forces in Dachne and reaching Ulakly. (HIGH PRIORITY - VERIFY AND ASSESS STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS)
Yakut Minister Injured (CLAIMED):ASTRA reports that Petr Shamaev, Minister for Youth Affairs and Social Communications of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), was injured in Ukraine and had a leg amputated. He reportedly volunteered for a six-month contract in August 2024 and was injured by an anti-personnel mine on February 1st. (LOW PRIORITY - UNRELATED TO UKRAINIAN MILITARY, BUT INDICATES RUSSIAN OFFICIALS PARTICIPATING IN COMBAT)
Ongoing Situations
Intense Ground Fighting (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed and claimed fighting continues in multiple locations, particularly in the Donetsk region. The claimed Russian advances, especially near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne and west of Velyka Novosilka, are of extreme concern and require immediate verification and response.
Other
Russian Internal Matters: Several reports relate to internal Russian matters, including:
Proposed legislation in the State Duma to restrict unusual baby names (Север.Реалии). (IRRELEVANT)
Arrest of an IT company founder in Mari El on fraud charges (ТАСС). (IRRELEVANT)
Announcement of a "cooling-off period" for consumer loans to combat fraud (ТАСС, Новости Москвы). (IRRELEVANT)
Announcement of a "cooling-off period" for consumer loans specifically for sums between 50,000₽ and 200,000₽ will need to wait 4 hours, and larger loans will need to wait for 2 days.
Report on a court case guaranteeing inheritance rights for children conceived via IVF after the father's death (ТАСС). (IRRELEVANT)
Announcement of unified textbooks for "Spiritual and Moral Culture of Russia" in schools by September 2026 (ТАСС). (IRRELEVANT)
Arrest of the son of a former Dagestani official for attacking a police officer (ТАСС). (IRRELEVANT)
Announcement of regional payments for each injury sustained by participants of the "special operation" in the Kursk region (ТАСС). (LOW PRIORITY - INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CASUALTIES)
Claims of the need of the list of people USAID has funded.
Propaganda and Disinformation:
Reports promoting a film by RT documentary filmmakers (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). (IRRELEVANT)
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Claims of significant Russian advances near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne and west of Velyka Novosilka, along with other claimed advances, significantly escalate the threat level. This requires immediate verification and response.
AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY): The increase in casualties in Zolochiv to six further emphasizes the ongoing danger of air attacks and the need for robust civilian protection measures.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (REDUCED, BUT ONGOING): Remains unchanged.
WATER SUPPLY DISRUPTION IN DNR (MEDIUM PRIORITY): While localized, this highlights the vulnerability of infrastructure in the conflict zone.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED):
Urgently verify all claims of Russian advances, especially those near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne reported by Сливочный каприз and west of Velyka Novosilka reported by Colonelcassad. This is the absolute highest priority.
Immediately deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellite imagery, HUMINT) to confirm or deny these claims and assess the extent of any Russian gains.
Develop and implement immediate counter-offensive measures to regain lost territory or stabilize the front line. This must be done rapidly to prevent further Russian consolidation.
Assess the threat to key supply lines and communication routes, particularly the Krasnoarmeisk-Velikaya Novoselka highway.
Reinforce Ukrainian defensive positions in threatened areas, deploying additional troops and anti-tank weaponry if necessary.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Remains unchanged.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
MONITOR WATER SUPPLY DISRUPTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Monitor water supply and prepare for further disruptions.
The situation has deteriorated significantly due to credible claims of substantial Russian advances, particularly near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne and west of Velyka Novosilka. These claims, if confirmed, represent a major shift in the front lines and require immediate and decisive action to prevent further Russian gains and protect Ukrainian strategic positions. The continued air attacks, resulting in civilian casualties, further escalate the urgency of the situation. The absolute highest priority is verifying and responding to the reported Russian advances.
