Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 10:08 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (09:38 UTC - 10:08 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
Guided Aerial Bomb Attack on Zolochiv (CONFIRMED):Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports a Russian guided aerial bomb attack on Zolochiv at approximately 11:27 UTC, striking a private house and injuring four people, including a 12-year-old. (HIGH PRIORITY - CIVILIAN CASUALTIES)
Ballistic Missile Threat Reduced (CONFIRMED):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces the end of the ballistic missile threat in most regions except Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (PRIORITY REDUCED, BUT MONITOR ONGOING THREAT)
Increased FPV Drone Activity (CONFIRMED):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports increased activity of enemy FPV drones in the Vasilyevka-Tokmak area. (HIGH PRIORITY - DRONE THREAT)
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive (CONFIRMED):Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shows video and reports that Ukrainian forces are fighting in Toretsk.
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
Destruction of Ukrainian Armored Personnel Carriers (CLAIMED):Colonelcassad reports a drone operator destroying two YPR-765 armored personnel carriers in the Kolodeznoe region. (HIGH PRIORITY).
Destruction of Ukrainian Communication Equipment (CLAIMED):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian drone operators destroyed two hidden Starlink communication devices near Zhuravka. (MEDIUM PRIORITY - IF CONFIRMED, IMPACTS UKRAINIAN C4I)
Destruction of Ukrainian Soldiers (CLAIMED):Воин DV reports that a drone operator destroyed three Ukrainian soldiers.
Ongoing Situations
Intense Ground Fighting (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed fighting continues in multiple locations, especially in the Donetsk region.
Other
Propaganda:
Alex Parker Returns
Irrelevant Information:
ТАСС: Several reports on irrelevant topics such as officials being appointed, internal issues, awards.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE (HIGH PRIORITY): The liberation of Yaseneve remains a confirmed Russian territorial gain.
SARATOV REFINERY STRIKE CONFIRMED, DAMAGE ONGOING (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple sources confirm damage to the Saratov oil refinery, impacting Russian fuel production and logistics.
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Focus on the Donetsk region, with multiple claims and confirmations of fighting and territorial changes.
AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): The air attack in the Zolochiv is particularly worrying.
POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The meeting between Ryabkov and the US Ambassador indicates continued, albeit potentially routine, diplomatic engagement.
UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces are responding to Russian advances.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (REDUCED, BUT ONGOING): While the threat has been lifted in most regions, vigilance remains necessary in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Urgently verify claims of Russian advances near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne, Andreevka, Razliv, Dachny, and other locations reported by various sources. This remains the highest priority.
Assess the impact of these advances, particularly the confirmed liberation of Yaseneve, on Ukrainian defensive positions.
Develop and implement counter-offensive measures where necessary to regain lost territory or stabilize the front line.
CONTINUE ASSESSING AND MITIGATING SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather detailed intelligence on the extent of damage to the Saratov oil refinery, focusing on the L-24-6 hydrotreating unit.
Assess the impact on Russian fuel production and military logistics.
Develop strategies to mitigate the impact, including securing alternative fuel sources or increasing domestic production elsewhere.
Enhance protection of other critical infrastructure against similar attacks.
The meeting between Ryabkov and the US Ambassador, while potentially routine, should be monitored for any indications of shifts in diplomatic stance or potential negotiations.
MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Maintain high readiness of air defense systems, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts where the ballistic missile threat remains.
Continue monitoring for potential air and missile attacks, particularly targeting critical infrastructure.
Protect populated areas, especially in light of the Zolochiv attack.
Track the progress and locations of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Evaluate its potential.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Continue to monitor NATO exercises, adapt as needed, and be ready for surprise developments.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Verify the reported activity of enemy drones, and deploy counter-drone measures.
The situation remains extremely volatile, with confirmed attacks and ongoing fighting. The key updates are the confirmed guided aerial bomb attack on Zolochiv, resulting in civilian casualties, and the continued, albeit reduced, ballistic missile threat. The confirmed Russian advance at Yaseneve and the ongoing damage assessment at the Saratov refinery remain significant. Intense ground fighting continues, necessitating constant monitoring, verification, and rapid response. The highest priorities are verifying and responding to reported Russian advances, as well as monitoring and acting against air threats.
