Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 09:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (09:09 UTC - 09:38 UTC, February 11)
Confirmed Actions and Status Updates
Yaseneve Liberation (CONFIRMED):ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Russian forces have liberated the settlement of Yaseneve in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR). (HIGH PRIORITY)
Saratov Oil Refinery Strike (CONFIRMED, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT):ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the Ukrainian strike on the Saratov oil refinery, with damage to a low-pressure gas pipeline and a temporary suspension of operations. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claims the strike targeted the L-24-6 hydrotreating unit. (HIGH PRIORITY - INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE)
ASTRA video shows a large fire at night, illuminated by a spotlight, and snow on the ground.
Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (CONFIRMED):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces the end of the ballistic missile threat. (PRIORITY REDUCED)
US Ambassador Summoned (CONFIRMED):ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns report that the US Ambassador has been summoned to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION)
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive (CONFIRMED):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian defenders retook positions in Pishchane. Russian forces have advanced near Sverdlikove and Mykolaivo-Daryine in the Kursk Oblast, and also near Velyka Novosilka.
Combined Strike (CONFIRMED):Два майора reports that the Russian Armed Forces inflicted damage to the gas-energy complex, military airfields, and places of deployment and use of UAVs.
Shelling of Donetsk (CONFIRMED):ТАСС reports that the VSU fired 5 projectiles of 155mm caliber at the Kirovsky and Petrovsky regions of Donetsk.
Air raid in Kherson (CONFIRMED):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces air raid and aviation danger in the Kherson region.
Missile attacks in Kramatorsk (CONFIRMED):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports attacks on locations in Kramatorsk: an outpatient clinic (#5) and a temporary deployment point.
Drone attacks in Kharkiv Region (CONFIRMED):Colonelcassad reports that the drone operator of the "North" military unit inflicted a targeted strike by an FPV kamikaze drone on the M-113 armored personnel carrier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv border area.
Fighting continues at Dzerzhynsk (CONFIRMED):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms continuing fighting in Dzerzhinsk.
Claims and Potential Developments (Verification Needed)
Potential Russian Advance near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne (RUSSIAN CLAIM, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):Сливочный каприз: Remains a HIGH PRIORITY for verification.
New Russian Advances (REPORTED):Z комитет + карта СВО reports new advances by the Russian Armed Forces near Andreevka, Razliv, and Dachny.
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive (REPORTED):Deep State reports that Russian forces have advanced near Sverdlikove, Mykolaivo-Daryine, Velyka Novosilka, Vodiane Druhe, Zaporizhzhia, Sribne, and Andriivka.
Strikes on Zaporizhia (CLAIMED):WarGonzo claims artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in Zaporizhzhia.
Russian Advances (CLAIMED):Colonelcassad reports that the Russian Army has almost completely liberated the village of Andriivka.
Diplomatic Relations (CLAIMED):Оперативний ЗСУ reports that contacts between the USA and Russia have intensified recently.
Ongoing Situations
Intense Ground Fighting (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed fighting continues in multiple locations, especially in the Donetsk region.
Other
Propaganda:
Fighterbomber
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS
Irrelevant Information:
ТАСС: Reports on economic issues and the resignation of the head of Rostov-on-Don.
Internal Russian Issues:ASTRA reports the detention of a Moscow IT specialist challenging his military conscription. Север.Реалии reports on the ECHR ordering Russia to pay compensation to Karelian activists.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE (HIGH PRIORITY): The liberation of Yaseneve represents a confirmed Russian territorial gain.
SARATOV REFINERY STRIKE CONFIRMED, DAMAGE ONGOING (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple sources confirm damage to the Saratov oil refinery, impacting Russian fuel production and logistics.
INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Focus on the Donetsk region, with multiple claims and confirmations of fighting and territorial changes.
AIR ATTACKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): The air attack in the Kharkiv region is particularly worrying.
POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The summoning of the US Ambassador to the Russian Foreign Ministry indicates heightened diplomatic tensions.
UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces are responding to Russian advances.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Urgently verify claims of Russian advances near Krasnoarmeisk-Udachne, Andreevka, Razliv, Dachny, and other locations reported by various sources.
Assess the impact of these advances, particularly the confirmed liberation of Yaseneve, on Ukrainian defensive positions.
Develop and implement counter-offensive measures where necessary to regain lost territory or stabilize the front line.
CONTINUE ASSESSING AND MITIGATING SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather detailed intelligence on the extent of damage to the Saratov oil refinery, focusing on the L-24-6 hydrotreating unit.
Assess the impact on Russian fuel production and military logistics.
Develop strategies to mitigate the impact, including securing alternative fuel sources or increasing domestic production elsewhere.
Enhance protection of other critical infrastructure against similar attacks.
MONITOR DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather intelligence on the reasons for summoning the US Ambassador.
Assess the potential implications for the conflict and international relations.
Prepare for potential escalation or diplomatic maneuvering.
MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Although the immediate ballistic missile threat has been lifted, maintain high readiness of air defense systems.
Continue monitoring for potential air and missile attacks, particularly targeting critical infrastructure.
Track the progress and locations of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Evaluate its potential.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS: Continue to monitor NATO exercises, adapt as needed, and be ready for surprise developments.
The situation remains extremely volatile. The confirmed Russian advance at Yaseneve and the ongoing damage assessment at the Saratov refinery are the most significant developments. The summoning of the US Ambassador introduces a significant diplomatic element. Intense ground fighting continues, necessitating constant monitoring, verification, and rapid response.
