Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 09:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (08:38 UTC - 09:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Ballistic Missile Threat (ACTIVE): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report a ballistic missile threat in regions where air raid alerts are active. (EXTREME PRIORITY).
• Guided Aerial Bomb Launches (CONFIRMED): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Air Raid Alert (CONFIRMED): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 confirms an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Missile Threat (CONFIRMED): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a missile threat in Temryuk, Melitopol, Tokmak, and Berdyansk.

Ground Situation

• Pokrovsk Direction (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN CLAIM): РБК-Україна reports that Russian forces are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Pokrovsk direction, with some positions destroyed. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Fighting in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) (CONFIRMED): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports continued fighting in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), with Russian forces conducting clearing operations in Shcherbynivka and towards Kostiantynivka. (HIGH PRIORITY).
• Russian Advances (CLAIMED): Z комитет + карта СВО claims Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdilne, and Rivnopil, providing a map. (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION).
• Pishchane Recapture (CONFIRMED): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms that Ukrainian forces have regained control of positions in Pishchane.
• Russian Advances (CONFIRMED): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Russian advances near Sverdlykove, Mykolaivo-Dar'yne, Velyka Novosilka, Vodiane Druhe, Zaporizhzhia, Sribne, and Andriivka.
• Andriivka Liberation (CLAIMED): Colonelcassad reports that the Russian Army has almost completely liberated the village of Andriivka.

Other Developments

• Emergency Power Outages Lifted (CONFIRMED): РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm that emergency power outages have been lifted. Укренерго emphasizes the need for continued energy conservation. (INFRASTRUCTURE RECOVERY).
• Energy Infrastructure (CONFIRMED): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 states that 2,700 customers were left without power, but that the situation has been stabilized and power has been restored.
• Potential Humanitarian Corridor (REPORTED): ТАСС reports a potential humanitarian corridor for residents in the occupied part of Kursk Oblast, citing Tatyana Moskalkova. (POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT).
• "Ramstein Flag-2025" Exercise (CONFIRMED): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on the upcoming "Ramstein Flag-2025" NATO air exercise in the Netherlands and North Sea area, involving over 90 aircraft. (NATO ACTIVITY).
• US Aid to Ukraine (REPORTED, MIXED SIGNALS): Два майора analyzes Tucker Carlson's statements about Ukrainians spending large sums of money in Europe and alleged arms trafficking. (POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT). Басурин о главном reports similar claims, citing Tucker Carlson, and claims that Europe is becoming agitated with President Trump's approach to the conflict.
• Potential Diplomatic Contact (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns and Военкор Котенок report the possible arrival of Steve Witkoff, a close advisor to Donald Trump, in Moscow. (POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY).
• Mobilization Issues (REPORTED): ТАСС reports that obtaining a one-year exemption from mobilization costs Ukrainians $15,000. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники reports that a wounded contract soldier was sent back to the front instead of receiving treatment. (POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION ISSUES).
• Reported Corruption (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns claims a deputy head of administration in Mytishchi illegally issued a housing certificate to a Tajik family, stating they have 11 deputies.
• Training (CONFIRMED): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 showcases soldiers from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade undergoing training in winter conditions.

Updated Situation Summary

• AIR THREAT REMAINS EXTREME (EXTREME PRIORITY): Active ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb threats persist.
• INTENSE GROUND FIGHTING CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed and claimed reports of fighting and Russian advances in multiple locations, especially around Toretsk and the Pokrovsk direction.
• SARATOV REFINERY STRIKE CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY): Multiple sources confirm the Ukrainian strike on the Saratov oil refinery, demonstrating long-range strike capability and potential impact on Russian logistics. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claims the strike targeted the L-24-6 hydrotreating unit.
• POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports of a possible visit by a Trump advisor to Moscow suggest potential back-channel communications.
• UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION CHALLENGES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Reports of high costs for mobilization exemptions and redeployment of wounded soldiers raise concerns about Ukrainian manpower.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AGAINST AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Given the active ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb threats, maintain maximum readiness of air defense systems.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Enhance early warning capabilities to provide maximum response time.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Urgently verify the claims of Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdilne, Rivnopil, and other locations reported by ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 and Z комитет + карта СВО.
   • Assess the impact of these advances on Ukrainian defensive positions and strategic objectives.
   • Develop and implement counter-offensive measures if necessary to regain lost territory or stabilize the front line.

3. CONTINUE ASSESSING AND MITIGATING SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

4. MONITOR POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported visit of Steve Witkoff to Moscow.
   • Assess the potential implications of any discussions or agreements.
   • Prepare for potential shifts in US policy or negotiating positions.

5. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION CHALLENGES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Investigate reports of high costs for mobilization exemptions and the redeployment of wounded soldiers.
   • Ensure fair and transparent mobilization procedures to maintain public trust and support.
   • Provide adequate medical care and support for wounded soldiers.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, with updated priorities as noted. The situation remains highly dynamic, with ongoing air threats, intense ground fighting, and potential shifts in diplomatic activity. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Saratov refinery inside Russia remains a significant development.

7. MONITOR NATO EXERCISE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Track the progress and objectives of the NATO "Ramstein Flag-2025" exercise.
• Assess any potential implications for the conflict in Ukraine.
• Identify any lessons learned that could be applied to Ukrainian air defense or offensive operations.

The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with escalating air threats, intense fighting in multiple regions, and potential for further escalation.