Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 08:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (08:08 UTC - 08:38 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Ballistic Missile Threat (LIFTED): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced a lift of the threat of using ballistic weapons. (DE-ESCALATION).
• Air Defense Success (OFFICIAL, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian Air Force officially reported shooting down 57 out of 124 attacking UAVs, with another 66 UAVs (likely decoys) "locationally lost" without causing damage. A combined attack of up to 19 missiles of various types targeted gas production facilities in Poltava Oblast, but the exact damage and missile types used needs further confirmation. (UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS, PARTIAL INTERCEPTION, HIGH PRIORITY).
• Saratov Refinery Strike (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN CLAIM): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claim a successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire. They claim to have targeted the L-24-6 hydrotreating unit. The КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also provided images and video. (CONFIRMED STRIKE, UKRAINIAN RESPONSIBILITY, HIGH PRIORITY). Рыбарь confirms the drone attack on the Saratov region, reporting that some drones managed to penetrate air defenses.
• Air Defense Action (CONFIRMED): Два майора shows footage of the 18th Army operating in the Kherson direction. The footage shows the destruction of a drone.

Ground Situation

• Kursk Region Operations (RUSSIAN CLAIM): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports that the Russian military in the Kursk region urgently needs attack and reconnaissance drones and calls for donations. (RUSSIAN FORCES ACTIVE, REQUESTING SUPPORT).
• Cherkaska Konopelka (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns claims that Cherkaska Konopelka has been liberated and cleared.
• Reported Re-deployment (REPORTED): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники claims that a wounded soldier was sent back to the front instead of receiving treatment.
• Reported Strike (REPORTED): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that a P-18 radar was struck.

Other Developments

• Musk on Ukrainian Elections (REPORTED): ТАСС reports that Elon Musk ironically commented on Zelensky's statement about elections in Ukraine. (POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL SKEPTICISM).
• Espionage Arrests (CONFIRMED): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the SBU's arrest of Russian agents attempting to install a GPS tracker on a vehicle escorting Ukrainian military convoys. (COUNTERINTELLIGENCE SUCCESS, HIGH PRIORITY).
• Mytishchi Official Investigation (REPORTED): Alex Parker Returns reports that a deputy head of the Mytishchi administration has been suspected of negligence, resulting in the issuance of a housing certificate to a family from Tajikistan.
• Emergency Power Outages Lifted (CONFIRMED): Both РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm that emergency power outages in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts have been lifted. (INFRASTRUCTURE RECOVERY).
• US Plans to Push European Weapon Purchases (REPORTED): STERNENKO states that the US plans to encourage European allies to purchase more weapons for Ukraine.
• Claimed Ukrainian Propaganda (REPORTED): Военкор Котенок claims that business owners are being pressured by authorities.

Updated Situation Summary

• AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS, BUT CONTINUED THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY): While the ballistic missile threat has been lifted, Ukraine faced a major combined air attack, successfully intercepting a significant number of drones. However, damage to gas infrastructure in Poltava Oblast and a confirmed strike on the Saratov oil refinery highlight ongoing vulnerability to long-range attacks.
• GROUND OPERATIONS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports, primarily from Russian sources, indicate ongoing fighting, with requests for additional drone support in the Kursk region.
• COUNTERINTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (HIGH PRIORITY): The arrest of Russian agents attempting to track Ukrainian military movements demonstrates effective counterintelligence operations by the SBU.

Updated Recommendations

1. REINFORCE AIR DEFENSE AROUND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Given the demonstrated vulnerability of energy infrastructure (both gas production in Poltava and oil refining in Saratov), prioritize air defense assets around these critical facilities.
   • Diversify defense strategies, including electronic warfare measures, to counter diverse threats (missiles and drones).
   • Enhance early warning systems to provide maximum response time.

2. ASSESS AND MITIGATE SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the extent of the damage to the Saratov refinery.
   • Assess the impact on Russian fuel production and supply lines.
   • Prepare for potential retaliatory strikes from Russia.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

4. ANALYZE DRONE USAGE PATTERNS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Given the high number of drones used in the recent attack, analyze their flight paths, origins, and targeting patterns.
   • Identify potential launch sites and drone types used.
   • Develop strategies to counter future mass drone attacks, including electronic warfare and improved interception capabilities.

5. MAINTAIN COUNTERINTELLIGENCE VIGILANCE (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Following the successful arrests, maintain heightened counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize further espionage attempts.
   • Focus on protecting military convoys and critical infrastructure.
   • Enhance public awareness of potential threats and encourage reporting of suspicious activity.

6. MONITOR RUSSIAN-NORTH KOREAN COOPERATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

7. ADDRESS GPS TRACKER REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

8. MONITOR USAID ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

9. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with a shift in focus towards reinforcing air defense around critical infrastructure, assessing the damage to the Saratov refinery, and analyzing drone usage patterns.

10. INVESTIGATE REPORTED RE-DEPLOYMENT:

    • Gather intelligence on the wounded soldier to find if the report is accurate.
    • Assess the potential impact of these reports.
    • Address the potential implications.

11. INVESTIGATE THE SARATOV REFINERY ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Determine the effects of the attacks on the refinery and other elements of the oil industry.
    • Evaluate the consequences.

12. MAINTAIN VIGILANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Maintain constant monitoring of the events across Ukraine and the surrounding regions.
    • Look out for future threats.

The situation remains dynamic, with a focus on air defense capabilities, the impact of strikes on critical infrastructure, and ongoing counterintelligence efforts. The successful Ukrainian strike on the Saratov refinery inside Russia represents a significant development, demonstrating a capability to reach deep into Russian territory. This could lead to Russian escalation or retaliatory strikes.