Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 08:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (07:38 UTC - 08:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Ballistic Missile Threat (ACTIVE): A threat of ballistic weapon use from the east is announced by Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (ESCALATION).
• Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert (ACTIVE): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region. (ESCALATION).
• Cherkasy Drone Attacks (CONFIRMED, CASUALTIES):
  • РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm that 17 drones were shot down overnight in the Cherkasy region.
  • Two men were injured by debris and hospitalized in moderate condition.
• Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Kyiv Airfields Hit Poddubny reports more attacks on a number of targets.

Ground Situation

• Chasiv Yar Area (REPORTED, RUSSIAN ADVANCES): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports continued expansion of Russian control and offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar area:
  • Claims of a 1.5 km deep and 3.5 km wide incursion into Ukrainian defenses on the southern flank, near the Stupky and Krinichki areas.
  • Reports of ongoing fighting in the Novoseverny microdistrict, west of the refractory plant.
  • Claims of increased activity towards Konstakhi along the highway, disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
  • Reported destruction of a Ukrainian mortar position and UAV control point south of Stupochki. (RUSSIAN ADVANCES, NEEDS VERIFICATION, HIGH PRIORITY)
• Pokrovsk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Басурин о главном and MoD Russia report another successful attack by "Rubikon Center" FPV drones on a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIRMATION OF CONTINUED RUSSIAN OPERATIONS, NEEDS VERIFICATION OF VEHICLE DESTRUCTION)
• Drone Strike on a Vehicle (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN CASUALTIES, HIGH PRIORITY): Два майора reports that a Ukrainian drone hit their vehicle on the road to Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), but personnel escaped. Heavy fighting is reported. (CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE, RUSSIAN CASUALTIES, HIGH PRIORITY)
• Destruction of a Krab (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Reports of destruction of a Krab.

Other Developments

• US Pushing Europe to Buy Arms for Ukraine (REPORTED): Оперативний ЗСУ, citing Reuters, reports that the White House will encourage Europe to buy more American weapons for Ukraine. (POTENTIAL SHIFT IN AID STRATEGY)
• US Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum (REPORTED): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, citing Reuters, reports that the US is imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, impacting Russia and China, but also allies like Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. (POTENTIAL ECONOMIC DISRUPTION, TRADE WAR ESCALATION)
• Potential for large financial losses in the EU (REPORTED): ТАСС, citing Bloomberg, reports that prices could reach new highs, resulting in large losses.
• Armenia Unlikely to Accept Russian Mediation (REPORTED): ТАСС reports that Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan stated Armenia is unlikely to accept Russian mediation efforts in negotiations with Azerbaijan. (POTENTIAL SETBACK FOR REGIONAL STABILITY)
• Tightening of Punishment for Discreditation (REPORTED): The Duma is planning to punish those who discredit the army, and/or those who call for sanctions, ASTRA reports.
• Kirovo Airport Status (CONFIRMED): Restrictions on the reception and release of aircraft at Kirovo Airport have been lifted, ТАСС reports.
• Reported Ukrainian Sabotage (REPORTED, BELGOROD REGION): Three youths were detained for setting fire to relay cabinets, ASTRA reports.
• Wounded Russian Soldiers to North Korea (REPORTED): Russia has stated it will send wounded soldiers to North Korea for "treatment," ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports.
• GPS Trackers on Military Vehicles (REPORTED): An attempt to install GPS trackers on vehicles escorting military equipment has been reported, Офіс Генерального прокурора reports.
• USAID in Kirgizia (REPORTED): Рыбарь reports that USAID has been sponsoring a website encouraging citizens of Kirgizia to move to Russia.

Updated Situation Summary

• AIR THREATS ESCALATE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Active ballistic missile threat from the east and an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia indicate a significant escalation in air attacks.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY): Reported Russian gains in the Chasiv Yar area, coupled with confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian vehicles, signal intensified ground combat and high stakes in this region.
• ECONOMIC PRESSURE INCREASES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): US tariffs on steel and aluminum could disrupt global markets and put further economic pressure on Russia and China, while the push for Europe to buy more US arms for Ukraine indicates a potential shift in aid strategy.
• RUSSIAN-NORTH KOREAN COOPERATION (REPORTED, NEEDS MONITORING): The reported sending of wounded Russian soldiers to North Korea for "treatment" raises concerns about potential military cooperation and knowledge exchange.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain and enhance air defense readiness across Ukraine, with a particular focus on the eastern regions due to the ballistic missile threat.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Disseminate real-time threat information to all relevant units and civilian authorities.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute reported Russian advances, particularly in the Chasiv Yar area.
   • Utilize satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, and human intelligence to gather accurate battlefield information.
   • Focus on identifying Russian troop concentrations, movements, and logistical routes.

3. ADDRESS THE DAMAGE IN CHERKASY (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Prioritize providing medical assistance to those injured, and assess the needs of those affected.
   • Address the implications of any other reports of attacks.

4. ADDRESS INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

5. CONFIRM AND ASSESS RARE EARTH METALS DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

6. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF REPORTED LOWERING OF DRAFT AGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

7. ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE ATTACK ON THE SARATOV REFINERY: Remains unchanged.

8. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN SANCTION EVASION (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

9. MONITOR RUSSIAN-NORTH KOREAN COOPERATION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the nature and extent of reported cooperation, including the type of "treatment" being provided to Russian soldiers.
   • Assess the potential for knowledge exchange or technology transfer between Russia and North Korea.
   • Monitor any further developments in their relationship.

10. ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence on why the restriction was initially applied.
    • Assess the implications that this may have on future travel.

11. ADDRESS THE REPORTED SABOTAGE (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Investigate and address the reported sabotage of the relay cabinets.
    • Explore further security.

12. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priorities on addressing the immediate air threats, verifying Russian advance claims, and confirming the details and implications of the reported rare earth metals deal.

13. Continue to monitor the evolving situation closely and adapt recommendations as needed.

14. Analyze Reports and Videos from Different Sources.

    • Corroborate conflicting reports from different sources about military engagements.
    • Analyze the validity of reports using images and videos.

15. ADDRESS GPS TRACKER REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Investigate the reported use of GPS trackers.
    • Prioritize securing military assets to prevent unauthorized access.

16. MONITOR USAID ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence on USAID's reported activities in Kyrgyzstan.
    • Assess the impact of this program.
    • Monitor the situation to address the potential consequences.

The situation remains highly volatile, with escalating air threats, continued ground fighting, and significant geopolitical developments requiring immediate attention and continuous monitoring.