Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 07:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (07:08 UTC - 07:38 UTC, February 11)
Air and Missile Threats
Air Raid Alerts (STATUS):
LIFTED (Sumi): The threat of enemy aviation strikes in the Sumi region has been lifted. (DE-ESCALATION).
Attacks on Infrastructure (REPORTED, Naftogaz):
Naftogaz has announced damages to its production areas in the Poltava region. (CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, NEEDS CONFIRMATION).
Explosions (REPORTED):
Media reports that strong explosions occurred in the Kramatorsk district, Donetsk region. (ACTIVE CONFLICT, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
Ground Situation
Kursk Region (REPORTED, Russian Source):
Военкор Котенок reports that Ukrainian forces were destroyed near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Claims full control of Cherkasskaya Konopelka by Russian forces. (RUSSIAN COUNTER-ATTACK, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
Kropyvnytskyi District (REPORTED, Ukrainian Source):
Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage to windows, roofs, and power lines in several private homes in the Kropyvnytskyi district due to debris from a downed UAV. No casualties reported. (INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, CONFIRMED)
Velyka Novosilka Area (REPORTED, Russian Source):
Voin DV claims that Russian assault units from the "Vostok" group continued offensive operations after liberating Velyka Novosilka. Claims of advances towards Konstantynopol, northwest of Zelenovka, and further expansion of the control zone east of Zelenovka, potentially cutting off Ukrainian units in Dachne and reaching Ułakły.
Claims of continued offensives north-west of Vremivka and north of Vremivka-Temirivka, securing heights and clearing forest areas.
Reported destruction of Ukrainian personnel, armored vehicles, mortars, and other equipment. (RUSSIAN ADVANCES, NEEDS VERIFICATION).
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports no attacks on Kharkiv city overnight.
* Reports drone damage to warehouses in Merefa, a house in Horokhovatka, and a car and culture house in Prystin.
* Reports shelling damage to a house in Kupiansk, with a 99-year-old woman suffering stress, and damage to a house and gas pipe in other locations.
* Reports four enemy attacks near Vovchansk and nine attacks near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Zahryzove, all repelled.
Reports 56 people evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions. (UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE ACTIONS, CONFIRMED)
Chasiv Yar (REPORTED, Russian Source):
Colonelcassad reports that fighting is still ongoing in the city. States that Ukrainian command views the city as a second-line fortress (NEW INFORMATION).
Other Developments
Trump and Ukraine (REPORTED, Mixed Sources):
ASTRA,Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report Trump's statement that Ukraine has agreed to provide the US with $500 billion worth of rare-earth metals in exchange for military aid. (ESCALATION OF PREVIOUS REPORT, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
STERNENKO: Also reports on the same situation, stating that three days prior, the price was $500 million.
Potential Ceasefire Discussions (REPORTED, Bloomberg, Biased Source):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Bloomberg has raised the issue that Zelensky should lower the military age to show his worthiness to the west. (HIGHLY SPECULATIVE)
Additional Pension Indexation for Military Pensioners (REPORTED, TASS): TASS reports that the Russian Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets has supported a bill for additional pension indexation for military pensioners starting January 1, 2025.
Russian Sanction Evasion (REPORTED, Greenpeace):
Reports that Russian nuclear icebreakers help transport Russian gas to Europe in violation of sanctions. (SANCTION EVASION, NEEDS VERIFICATION).
WarGonzo Reports.
An enemy infantry fighting vehicle was destroyed with drones.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report.
Reports that the Ukrainian army is still performing military maneuvers, including 27 attacks in the Kursk area. This is likely referring to yesterday's report.
Reports that the Air Defence destroyed a Grad.
Updated Situation Summary
AIR STRIKES ON INFRASTRUCTURE (CONTINUED): Report of a strike on Naftogaz's facilities indicates a continued focus on Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
INTENSE FIGHTING (CONTINUED): Fighting continues in the Kramatorsk district, confirming ongoing conflict.
SANCTION EVASION (REPORTED): Reports suggest Russia may be circumventing sanctions using nuclear icebreakers to ship gas to Europe.
POLITICAL PRESSURE ON UKRAINE (CONTINUED): Reports highlight Trump's escalating demands for rare earth metals in exchange for military aid, suggesting increasing economic pressure on Ukraine.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS ATTACKS ON INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Assess the damage in the Poltava region.
Prioritize repairs to gas infrastructure and provide support to affected areas.
MONITOR POLISH AIR FORCE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
Deploy all intelligence assets to confirm if Russian nuclear icebreakers are being used to transport gas to Europe in violation of sanctions.
If confirmed, escalate to international bodies and coordinate with European partners to address the issue.
All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priorities on addressing the immediate air threats, verifying Russian advance claims, and confirming the details and implications of the reported rare earth metals deal.
Continue to monitor the evolving situation closely and adapt recommendations as needed.
Analyze Reports and Videos from Different Sources.
Corroborate conflicting reports from different sources about military engagements.
Analyze the validity of reports using images and videos.
