Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 07:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (06:38 UTC - 07:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Air Raid Alerts (STATUS):
  • LIFTED (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert declared and then cancelled for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • ACTIVE (Sumi): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of enemy aviation strikes persists in Sumi region.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Launches (CONFIRMED, Sumi Region): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Sumi region. (NEW THREAT)
• Polish Air Force Activity (REPORTED, TASS): TASS reports that Poland has scrambled fighter jets due to reported Russian strikes near the Polish border. (INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS)

Ground Situation

• Kursk Region (REPORTED, Russian Source): Военкор Котенок reports that Ukrainian forces attempted another breakthrough near Cherkasskaya Konopelka during the night, but were destroyed. Claims full control of Cherkasskaya Konopelka by Russian forces. (RUSSIAN COUNTER-ATTACK, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
• Kropyvnytskyi District (REPORTED, Ukrainian Source): Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage to windows, roofs, and power lines in several private homes in the Kropyvnytskyi district due to debris from a downed UAV. No casualties reported. (INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE, CONFIRMED)
• Velyka Novosilka Area (REPORTED, Russian Source):
  • Voin DV claims that Russian assault units from the "Vostok" group continued offensive operations after liberating Velyka Novosilka. Claims of advances towards Konstantynopol, northwest of Zelenovka, and further expansion of the control zone east of Zelenovka, potentially cutting off Ukrainian units in Dachne and reaching Ułakły.
  • Claims of continued offensives north-west of Vremivka and north of Vremivka-Temirivka, securing heights and clearing forest areas.
  • Reported destruction of Ukrainian personnel, armored vehicles, mortars, and other equipment. (RUSSIAN ADVANCES, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
• Svatove-Kupiansk area. (REPORTED, Ukrainian source):
  • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports no attacks on Kharkiv city overnight. * Reports drone damage to warehouses in Merefa, a house in Horokhovatka, and a car and culture house in Prystin. * Reports shelling damage to a house in Kupiansk, with a 99-year-old woman suffering stress, and damage to a house and gas pipe in other locations. * Reports four enemy attacks near Vovchansk and nine attacks near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Zahryzove, all repelled.
  • Reports 56 people evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivskyi directions. (UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE ACTIONS, CONFIRMED)

Other Developments

• Trump and Ukraine (REPORTED, Mixed Sources):

  • ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 report Trump's statement that Ukraine has agreed to provide the US with $500 billion worth of rare-earth metals in exchange for military aid. (ESCALATION OF PREVIOUS REPORT, NEEDS VERIFICATION)
  • STERNENKO: Also reports on the same situation, stating that three days prior, the price was $500 million.

• Potential Ceasefire Discussions (REPORTED, Bloomberg, Biased Source): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Bloomberg has raised the issue that Zelensky should lower the military age to show his worthiness to the west. (HIGHLY SPECULATIVE)

• Additional Pension Indexation for Military Pensioners (REPORTED, TASS): TASS reports that the Russian Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets has supported a bill for additional pension indexation for military pensioners starting January 1, 2025.

• WarGonzo Reports.

  • An enemy infantry fighting vehicle was destroyed with drones.

• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report.

  • Reports that the Ukrainian army is still performing military maneuvers, including 27 attacks in the Kursk area. This is likely referring to yesterday's report.
  • Reports that the Air Defence destroyed a Grad.

Updated Situation Summary

• GUIDED AERIAL BOMB THREAT (NEW THREAT): Confirmed that the Sumi region is being attacked.
• POLISH AIR FORCE ALERT (INCREASED TENSIONS): Poland's scrambling of fighter jets indicates heightened regional tensions and potential concerns about escalation.
• CONTINUED GROUND FIGHTING (MULTIPLE FRONTS): Reports confirm continued fighting, with potential Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka and a reported Ukrainian counter-attack repelled in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces report repelling attacks in the Kharkiv and Kupiansk directions.
• INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (CONFIRMED): Damage to civilian infrastructure in the Kropyvnytskyi district from drone debris is confirmed.
• ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON UKRAINE (INCREASING): Reports highlight Trump's escalating demands for rare earth metals in exchange for military aid, suggesting increasing economic pressure on Ukraine.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS GUIDED AERIAL BOMB THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY): Ensure personnel in the Sumi region are aware of the threat and take necessary precautions. Monitor bomb trajectories and impact zones.
2. MONITOR POLISH AIR FORCE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Closely monitor the situation with the Polish Air Force and assess potential for escalation. Maintain communication with NATO allies.
3. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, HIGH PRIORITY): Focus intelligence assets on verifying or refuting reports of Russian advances, particularly near Velyka Novosilka and in the Kursk region.
4. ADDRESS INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Assess and address the damage to civilian infrastructure in the Kropyvnytskyi district.
5. CONFIRM AND ASSESS RARE EARTH METALS DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): Verify the reported deal between the US and Ukraine for rare earth metals. Assess the strategic implications, including potential long-term economic and political consequences.
6. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF REPORTED LOWERING OF DRAFT AGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Analyze the potential implications of lowering the draft age in Ukraine, including the impact on military manpower, public opinion, and international support.
7. ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE ATTACK ON THE SARATOV REFINERY: Continue to assess the implications of military actions in the Saratov region.
8. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priorities on addressing the immediate air threats, verifying Russian advance claims, and confirming the details and implications of the reported rare earth metals deal.
9. Continue to monitor the evolving situation closely and adapt recommendations as needed.
10. Analyze Reports and Videos from Different Sources.
    • Corroborate conflicting reports from different sources about military engagements.
    • Analyze the validity of reports using images and videos.