Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (06:08 UTC - 06:38 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Ballistic Missile Threat (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE REGIONS): The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile use in areas where air raid alerts are active. РБК-Україна confirms this threat. (HIGH PRIORITY, ESCALATION) This signifies a serious escalation, requiring immediate shelter precautions.

• Air Raid Alerts (STATUS):

  • LIFTED: Kyiv City Military Administration, Nikolaevsky Vanyok, and РБК-Україна confirm air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv.
  • ACTIVE (Zaporizhzhia): Air raid alert declared and then cancelled for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • ACTIVE (Multiple Regions): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of enemy attack UAVs persists in Kyiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy regions.

• Cherkasy Drone Threat (CONFIRMED, NEW THREAT): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy attack UAV approaching Cherkasy from the northwest. (NEW THREAT VECTOR)

Ground Situation

• Kursk Region (REPORTED, Russian Source): MoD Russia shows video footage of Grad MLRS crews from the Sever Group of Forces allegedly neutralizing combat hardware and manpower clusters of the AFU in the border area of Kursk region. (RUSSIAN ARTILLERY ACTIVITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION)

• Svatove-Kupiansk area. (REPORTED, Russian Source):

• Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian FPV drone operators continue to identify and destroy enemy armored vehicles and pickup trucks in large quantities in the Kharkiv region.

• Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces advanced near the Kupyansk area, specifically along the Zapadnoye-Dvurechnoye road, and in the outskirts of Zapadnoye.

• Kreminna Area (REPORTED, Russian Source): Сливочный каприз claims that Russian forces stormed Ukrainian positions in the northern part of Yampolivka.

• Chasiv Yar (REPORTED, Russian Source): Сливочный каприз reports control over production facilities of the Chasovoyarsk Refractory Plant.

• Krasnoarmeysk area. (REPORTED, Mixed Sources):

• Сливочный каприз and Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian forces have consolidated positions in Sribne, cleared a forest strip north of the village. Claims of developing an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia and Preobrazhenka.

• Сливочный каприз claims Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions in the village of Peschanoye, with the advance of assault vehicles into the western part of the village.

• Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces gained new positions west of Zverevo and advanced to the center of Udachnoye, expanding control zones in Uspenovka and south of Novovasilyevka. * Colonelcassad reports the death of the Nazi militant Maxim Yemets (call sign "Enot") near Pokrovsk.

• Kurakhov Direction (REPORTED, Russian Source): Сливочный каприз claims Russian assault troops advanced to the central part of Andreevka, occupying several positions in the residential buildings of the village.

• Dnipro Delta (REPORTED, Russian Source): Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces took control of part of the Antovsky railway bridge crossing near the Verkhnyaya Konka River.

• Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions (REPORTED, Ukrainian source):

  • No combat clashes have been reported.
  • Enemy forces continue engineering and aerial reconnaissance.

• South-Donetsk Direction (REPORTED, Russian Source): Voin DV claims Russian drone operators from the 29th Army of the "Vostok" group struck a towed howitzer of the enemy in a firing position.

• South Ukraine. (REPORTED, Ukrainian Source):

• The operational situation remains steadily tense.

• No signs of enemy offensive group formation.

• 300 enemy attacks on Ukrainian positions and settlements, air strikes with 14 guided bombs and 30 unguided rockets on Zaporizhzhia settlements.

• Use of over 500 attack drones, including "Lancet", and over 250 fragmentation munitions in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions.

• Enemy losses reported, including 58 personnel, 12 artillery systems (5 "Msta-B"), 2 mortars, 27 vehicles, 10 "Shahed-136" drones, 8 reconnaissance drones, 1 boat, 4 motorcycles, 5 generators, a Starlink terminal, an electronic warfare system, a video surveillance camera, 8 communication antennas, and 6 UAV control antennas.

• Destruction of 48 personnel shelters, a checkpoint, 5 observation posts, and a fuel storage location.

Other Developments

• Trump and Ukraine. (REPORTED, Mixed Sources):

  • ASTRA: Reports that Ukraine agreed to transfer $500 billion worth of rare-earth metals to the United States in exchange for military assistance.
  • TASS: Reports that President Trump cited Putin's words about Europeans who "will soon stand at the foot of their master."
  • Operativnyi ZSU reports Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25%.

• Potential Ceasefire Discussions (REPORTED, CNN, Biased Source): Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny quotes CNN, suggesting a ceasefire could allow Zelensky to step down and pave the way for a new Ukrainian leader, potentially Zaluzhny, to negotiate with Moscow. The article acknowledges Russia's current battlefield advances. (POTENTIAL POLITICAL SHIFT, HIGHLY SPECULATIVE) This should be treated with extreme caution due to its source and speculative nature. It aligns with Russian narratives seeking to undermine Zelensky's authority.

• US Visa Issues for Russian Diplomats (REPORTED): TASS reports continued problems with US visa issuance for Russian diplomats, accusing UN Secretary-General Guterres of inaction.

• Saratov Refinery Fire (UPDATE, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources, including the Governor of Saratov Oblast, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO confirm the fire at the industrial enterprise (previously identified as the Saratov Oil Refinery and later referred to as "KREKING") has been extinguished. The fire was related to a drone attack.

• Airports Reopen (REPORTED): TASS reports that airports in Kazan, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk have resumed normal operations.

• Ukrainian flag raised (REPORTED):

  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports of the raising of a Ukrainian flag in Toretsk.

• ASTRA Reports.

  • The local authorities of Dnipropetrovsk report that there were 4 people injured in the attack, 2 women in Nikopol, and two pensioners in Marhanets. 35 houses were also reported damaged.
  • Gas supply was lost to 9 settlements in the area.
  • The air raid alert has not ended, and is active in 15 regions of Ukraine.

• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report.

  • Confirmed that the Ukrainian army is still performing military maneuvers, including 27 attacks in the Kursk area.
  • Reported 139 skirmishes in the day.
  • 100 airstrikes, launching 140 bombs, and 6000 shellings, including 200 with MLRS.
  • Ukrainian forces performed strikes on 6 personnel concentration areas, 6 artillery systems, and 4 other important objects.
  • Areas of military operations were identified.
  • Losses in personnel (1390) and equipment were reported.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed ballistic missile threat in multiple regions requires immediate action and shelter precautions.

• CONTINUED DRONE THREAT (Confirmed, Shifting): While the immediate missile threat in Kyiv has subsided, the drone threat remains active and has shifted, with a new threat vector approaching Cherkasy.

• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES (Multiple Fronts, Confirmed): Reports continue to highlight intense fighting on several fronts, with particular focus on the Nikopol area, the Donetsk front (especially around Pokrovsk), and the Kursk region. Russian claims of advances require independent verification.

• POTENTIAL POLITICAL SHIFTS and US-Ukraine Relations (Speculative): Reports suggest possible internal Ukrainian political changes (highly speculative) and a reported deal between the US and Ukraine for rare earth metals in exchange for military aid.

• ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (Confirmed): Attacks continue to disrupt energy infrastructure, with gas supply affected in Poltava region, as reported before.

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (NEEDS VERIFICATION): Multiple reports from primarily Russian sources indicate potential Russian advances in several areas, including the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk, and Kurakhov directions, and in the Dnipro delta. These reports require independent confirmation.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. ADDRESS BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Ensure all personnel in affected areas are aware of the ballistic missile threat and take immediate shelter precautions. Monitor missile trajectories and impact zones.

2. TRACK and NEUTRALIZE DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY): Focus air defense assets on reported UAV threats, particularly the new threat approaching Cherkasy. Adapt deployments to address shifting threat vectors.

3. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply in affected regions, prioritizing the Poltava region.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, HIGH PRIORITY): Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to verify or refute the numerous reports of Russian advances across multiple fronts. Prioritize verification in the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Krasnoarmeysk, and Kurakhov directions, and in the Dnipro delta.

5. INVESTIGATE SARATOV REFINERY ATTACK (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Confirm the extent of the damage to the Saratov Oil Refinery ("KREKING") and its potential impact on Russian fuel production and supply chains.

6. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED RARE EARTH METALS DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirm the existence and details of the reported deal between the US and Ukraine for rare earth metals in exchange for military aid. Assess the strategic implications of this agreement, including its potential impact on resource availability, US-Ukraine relations, and the long-term course of the conflict.

7. ASSESS REPORTED CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Analyze the reported casualties and damage inflicted by Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine, including personnel losses, equipment destruction, and infrastructure damage. Cross-reference these claims with other intelligence sources to verify their accuracy.

8. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priorities on addressing the immediate ballistic missile threat, verifying Russian advance claims, and confirming the details and implications of the reported rare earth metals deal.

9. Continue to monitor the evolving situation closely and adapt recommendations as needed.

10. Analyze Reports and Videos from Different Sources.

    • Corroborate conflicting reports from different sources about military engagements.
    • Analyze the validity of reports using images and videos.