Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (05:38 UTC - 06:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Air Raid Alerts Lifted (CONFIRMED): Kyiv City Military Administration and Nikolaevsky Vanyok report the lifting of air raid alerts in Kyiv and other areas. (TEMPORARY DE-ESCALATION) This suggests the immediate threat from the potential TU-95MS missile launches (reported earlier) has passed, pending definitive confirmation that no launches occurred.

• Drone Threat Remains (CONFIRMED): The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy attack UAV on the border of Chernihiv and Kyiv regions, heading southwest. (CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THREAT)

Ground Situation

• Kryvyi Rih (UPDATE, CONTROLLED): Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is under control. No shelling was reported in the Kryvyi Rih district. A planned industrial explosion is scheduled for 14:00 UTC in the "Southern" quarry (Saksahanskyi, Tsentralno-Miskyi districts). (LOCALIZED SITUATION)

• Nikopol Area Attacks (CONFIRMED, CONTINUED): Vilkul confirms continued attacks in the Nikopol district, with shelling from heavy artillery, Grad MLRS, kamikaze drones, and UAVs targeting Nikopol, Marhanets, Myrivska, and Chervonohryhorivska communities. Three women and one man were injured. Damage includes 35 private houses, 11 outbuildings, 4 apartment buildings, infrastructure, a car wash, 6 cars, power lines, and a gas pipeline. One enemy UAV was shot down. (CONTINUED HIGH INTENSITY, CIVILIAN IMPACT) This reinforces earlier reports of significant damage and casualties in this area.

• Krasnoarmeysk Direction (REPORTED, Russian Source): Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian forces have consolidated positions in Sribne and cleared a forest strip north of the village. Claims of developing an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia and Preobrazhenka. (RUSSIAN ADVANCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION) This information should be treated with caution due to its source.

• South-Donetsk Direction (REPORTED, Russian Source): Voin DV claims Russian drone operators from the 29th Army of the "Vostok" group struck a towed howitzer of the enemy in a firing position. (RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION)

Other Developments

• Potential Ceasefire Discussions (REPORTED, CNN, Biased Source): Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny quotes CNN, suggesting a ceasefire could allow Zelensky to step down and pave the way for a new Ukrainian leader, potentially Zaluzhny, to negotiate with Moscow. The article acknowledges Russia's current battlefield advances. (POTENTIAL POLITICAL SHIFT, HIGHLY SPECULATIVE) This should be treated with extreme caution due to its source and speculative nature. It aligns with Russian narratives seeking to undermine Zelensky's authority.

• US Visa Issues for Russian Diplomats (REPORTED): TASS reports continued problems with US visa issuance for Russian diplomats, accusing UN Secretary-General Guterres of inaction. (DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS)

• Trump Raises Tariffs (REPORTED): Operativnyi ZSU reports Trump has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25%. (ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS)

• Saratov Refinery Fire (UPDATE, CONFIRMED): The Governor of Saratov Oblast confirms the fire at the industrial enterprise (previously identified as the Saratov Oil Refinery) has been extinguished. RBK-Ukraina confirms the report. (DAMAGE CONTAINED, INVESTIGATION NEEDED)

• Airports Reopen (REPORTED): TASS reports that airports in Kazan, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk have resumed normal operations.

• ASTRA Reports.

  • The local authorities of Dnipropetrovsk report that there were 4 people injured in the attack, 2 women in Nikopol, and two pensioners in Marhanets. 35 houses were also reported damaged.
  • Gas supply was lost to 9 settlements in the area.
  • The air raid alert has not ended, and is active in 15 regions of Ukraine.

• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Report.

  • Confirmed that the Ukrainian army is still performing military maneuvers, including 27 attacks in the Kursk area.
  • Reported 139 skirmishes in the day.
  • 100 airstrikes, launching 140 bombs, and 6000 shellings, including 200 with MLRS.
  • Ukrainian forces performed strikes on 6 personnel concentration areas, 6 artillery systems, and 4 other important objects.
  • Areas of military operations were identified.
  • Losses in personnel (1390) and equipment were reported.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMEDIATE MISSILE THREAT APPEARS REDUCED (Monitoring Required): The lifting of air raid alerts in Kyiv suggests the immediate threat from potential TU-95MS launches has subsided. Continuous monitoring remains crucial to confirm no launches occurred.

• CONTINUED DRONE THREAT (Confirmed): A single UAV is confirmed on the Chernihiv/Kyiv border, posing a localized threat.

• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES (Multiple Fronts, Confirmed): Reports (from various sources) confirm continued, high-intensity fighting, particularly in the Nikopol area (with significant civilian impact), and along the Donetsk front. Russian claims of advances require verification.

• POTENTIAL POLITICAL SHIFTS (Speculative): The CNN report (via a Russian source) suggests potential internal Ukrainian political changes, but this remains highly speculative and aligns with Russian propaganda efforts.

• ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (Confirmed): Attacks continue to target and damage energy infrastructure, causing disruptions in gas and electricity supply, especially in the Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. CONTINUE MONITORING for MISSILE LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY): Despite the lifting of air raid alerts, maintain vigilance and utilize all intelligence assets to definitively confirm that no missiles were launched by the TU-95MS aircraft.

2. TRACK and NEUTRALIZE REMAINING DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): Focus air defense assets on the reported UAV on the Chernihiv/Kyiv border.

3. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (Ukraine-Wide, HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply. Prioritize repairs in the Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Donetsk, Krasnoarmeysk): Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances, particularly in Sribne and towards Zaporizhzhia and Preobrazhenka.

5. ASSESS SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Now that the fire is extinguished, determine the full extent of the damage and its potential impact on Russian fuel production and supply chains.

6. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priorities on confirming the absence of a missile threat, addressing energy infrastructure damage, and investigating the reported rare earth metals deal.

7. Analyze Information from Ukrainian General Staff.

   • Confirm the number of reported skirmishes, attacks, strikes, and locations of combat operations.
   • Assess impact of the losses on Russian forces.