Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 05:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Potential Missile Launches (POSSIBLE, Needs Confirmation): Nikolaevsky Vanyok reports that some TU-95MS aircraft may have launched missiles before changing course towards Olenya. If launches occurred, missiles are expected in Ukrainian airspace around 07:40 UTC (+/-). (UNCERTAIN, HIGH PRIORITY TO MONITOR) This requires immediate and continuous monitoring to confirm or refute. If confirmed, this represents a significant escalation.

• TU-95MS Returning to Base (CONFIRMED): TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the TU-95MS aircraft have turned back towards their base of origin. If missile launches are not confirmed within the next 30 minutes, an all-clear may be expected. (POTENTIAL DE-ESCALATION, Contingent on Launch Confirmation)

• Saratov Refinery Fire (CONFIRMED): TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides video evidence of a large fire at the Saratov Oil Refinery, reportedly after a drone attack. Air raid sirens are reported in the Engels airport area. (STRATEGIC TARGET, INSIDE RUSSIA) This indicates a successful Ukrainian strike deep within Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure.

• Volgograd Drone Interception (CONFIRMED): The Governor of Volgograd Oblast confirmed, via TASS, that two Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed. No casualties or damage on the ground are reported. (RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY)

Ground Situation

• Zaporizhzhia and Polohy Regions (UPDATE): The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has updated the casualty report. Three people were injured as a result of the enemy shelling of the Polohy district. The updated report also indicates that the village of Omelnyk was attacked with guided aerial bombs (KABs), causing damage to houses and injuring three civilians (one woman, two men). (INCREASED CASUALTIES, USE OF GUIDED BOMBS)

• Donetsk Front (REPORTED, Russian Source): WarGonzo (pro-Russian source) reports continued Russian advances towards Konstantynopol, with fighting in Andriivka. Claims of Ukrainian resistance based on drones. (RUSSIAN ADVANCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION) This information should be treated with caution due to its source.

• Chasiv Yar Direction (REPORTED, Russian Source): WarGonzo claims Russian forces are maintaining the initiative and achieving tactical successes in Chasiv Yar. (RUSSIAN ADVANCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION) This information should be treated with caution due to its source.

• Kursk Region (REPORTED, Russian Source): WarGonzo claims Russian forces have "almost completely" neutralized recent Ukrainian counterattacks in the Sudzhansky district. Claims of continued Ukrainian defense and reinforcements from Sumy Oblast. (RUSSIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE, NEEDS VERIFICATION) This information should be treated with caution due to its source.

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Attacks (CONFIRMED): Serhiy Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration, confirmed attacks using Grad MLRS, artillery, and kamikaze drones. * Two women were wounded. * Attacks also hit Marhanets, Myrivska, and Chervonohryhorivska. * Damaged 35 private houses, 11 outbuildings, 4 apartment buildings. * Damage includes fires, infrastructure, a car wash, six cars, power lines, and a gas pipeline. * A drone was shot down by air defense. * An air alert continues in the region.

  • The attacks have caused significant damage and civilian injuries.

Other Developments

• US-Ukraine Rare Earth Metals Deal (REPORTED, Trump Claim): TSAPLIENKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Operativnyi ZSU report, quoting former President Trump, that Ukraine has "effectively agreed" to transfer $500 billion worth of rare earth metals to the US as payment for military aid. Trump insists on US access to these resources regardless of any peace agreement with Russia. (MAJOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS) This claim requires verification from official Ukrainian sources. This would represent a significant shift in the US-Ukraine relationship, potentially tying aid to resource extraction. The video message features Trump, and Operativnyi ZSU includes the statement, “Ukraine is ready to give the USA rare earth minerals."

• Potential US envoy visit: RBK-Ukraina reports, quoting Donald Trump, that US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, will talk with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump also states he is planning to visit Ukraine, without disclosing a specific date.

• Russian Priest Charged (REPORTED): ASTRA reports that a St. Petersburg priest, Grigory Mikhnov-Vaitenko, has been charged for not reporting himself as a "foreign agent." (RUSSIAN INTERNAL POLITICS)

• Ukrainian Claims of False Flag Operations (REPORTED): TASS reports, quoting a military expert named Marochko, that Ukrainian forces are deliberately shelling residential areas under Ukrainian control in the DPR to blame Russian forces and force evacuations. (RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, NEEDS VERIFICATION) This claim should be treated with extreme caution.

• Russian Aircraft Development: TASS reports, that the United Aircraft Corporation (OAK) plans to develop the fifth generation Su-57 fighter aircraft into a mixed system with the use of drones.

• Reports of Ukrainian Loss Statistics: RBK-Ukraina relays a Ukrainian report claiming that 1390 Russian soldiers and large amounts of equipment were destroyed within the day.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL NEW MISSILE THREAT (Uncertain): The possibility of missile launches by some TU-95MS aircraft is the most immediate and critical concern. Confirmation is urgently needed.
• ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (Confirmed): Attacks on energy infrastructure continue, resulting in emergency power outages across Ukraine and the loss of gas supply to nine settlements in the Myrgorod district of Poltava.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES (Multiple Fronts): Reports (primarily from Russian sources) indicate ongoing fighting in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and in Kursk, with claims of Russian advances. The situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region is worsening.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (Unconfirmed): Trump's claim of a rare earth metals deal, if true, would have profound implications for Ukraine's sovereignty and its relationship with the US. This requires immediate and thorough investigation.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. CONFIRM OR REFUTE MISSILE LAUNCH REPORTS (EXTREME PRIORITY): Utilize all available intelligence assets (radar, signals intelligence, satellite imagery) to immediately determine whether the TU-95MS aircraft launched missiles. This is the top priority.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for Air Defenses (Ukraine-Wide): Until the missile launch reports are definitively refuted, maintain maximum readiness for air defense systems across the country.

3. ADDRESS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (Ukraine-Wide, HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts to stabilize the power grid and restore gas supply to affected areas.

4. INVESTIGATE TRUMP'S RARE EARTH METALS CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY): Obtain official confirmation or denial from the Ukrainian government regarding the alleged deal. Analyze the potential legal, economic, and political ramifications of such an agreement.

5. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (Donetsk, Chasiv Yar, Kursk): Utilize independent intelligence sources to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances. Focus on the areas mentioned by WarGonzo.

6. ASSESS SARATOV REFINERY DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY): Determine the extent of damage to the Saratov Oil Refinery and its potential impact on Russian fuel production and supply.

7. Assess impacts of recent attacks.

8. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priority on confirming the potential missile threat, addressing energy infrastructure damage, and investigating the reported rare earth metals deal.