Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 04:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 04:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats

• Cruise Missile Threat (CONFIRMED, Sumy & Poltava):

  • Ukrainian Air Force reports cruise missiles in Sumy region, initially heading south, then continuing towards Poltava. (NEW, Active Missile Threat)
  • The head of the Zaporizhzhia OVA, Ivan Fedorov, stated that there's a threat of cruise missiles over the entire territory.

• Airports on Alert (Multiple Regions, CONFIRMED):

  • Temporary restrictions were introduced at airports in Kazan, Kirov, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk. (CONFIRMED, Logistical Disruption)
  • ASTRA, Operativny ZSU, and RBK-Ukraina confirm the implementation of the "Kovyover" plan (airspace closure) at these airports.

• Russian MoD Claims (CONFIRMED, Drone Interceptions):

  • Russian MoD and ASTRA report the interception and destruction of 40 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across five regions: Saratov (18), Rostov (13), Bryansk (6), Volgograd (2), and Belgorod (1). (MAJOR Drone Activity)
  • AV BogomaZ reports specifically 6 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast.

Ground Situation

• No significant changes reported in the past 30 minutes. Previous reports of intense fighting in Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinopol directions remain the focus.

Other Developments

• No new significant developments in the past 30 minutes.

Updated Situation Summary

• ESCALATING Air Threat: The situation remains highly dangerous, with a confirmed ACTIVE cruise missile threat in Sumy and Poltava regions. The prior drone attacks and the airspace closures at multiple Russian airports further highlight the elevated air threat environment.
• MASSIVE Drone Activity (CONFIRMED): The Russian MoD's claim of intercepting 40 Ukrainian UAVs overnight, if true, represents a significant Ukrainian offensive drone operation. This underscores the continued importance of drone warfare and the challenges of air defense.
• Ground Fighting Remains Intense: No new major ground developments were reported, but the previous reports of intense fighting on multiple fronts continue to be relevant.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Air Defenses (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Focus on tracking and intercepting the reported cruise missiles in Sumy and Poltava.
   • Maintain high readiness for additional drone attacks, given the scale of the overnight activity.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure in potential target areas.

2. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with the highest priority on addressing the immediate air threats. The long-term strategic implications of the successful Ukrainian drone attacks (if confirmed) and the ongoing ground battles must continue to be assessed.