Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:38 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats (Continued and Evolving)

• Saratov Oil Refinery Attack Aftermath (CONFIRMED, Impacting Logistics):
  • TASS reports delays in suburban trains in the Saratov region due to the drone attack. (NEW, Logistical Disruption)
  • RBK-Ukraina confirms damage to an industrial facility in Saratov, with the Governor stating that air defenses "liquidated" a UAV. (CONFIRMATION, Damage Assessment)
  • The attack is confirmed to be on the Saratov Oil Refinery.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Poltava, CONFIRMED, New Threat):
  • Ukrainian Air Force warns of an enemy attack UAV heading towards Poltava from the north. (NEW Threat)
• Drone Activity (Multiple Regions, CONFIRMED, UPDATED): Remains the same.
• Artillery Attack on Nikopol: Remains the same.

Ground Situation

• Massive Drone and Missile Attack on Russia (CONFIRMED): * "Dva Mayora" reports a massive drone attack on Saratov Oblast, targeting a military airfield and an oil refinery. Some drones reportedly penetrated air defenses. (MAJOR Incident, INSIDE Russia) * Drone attacks were also reported and repelled in Rostov Oblast (Chertkovsky and Sholokhovsky districts) and over Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, and the Black Sea. (Multi-Regional Attack) * Claims of up to 20 "Kalibr" missiles launched from the Black Sea targeting gas infrastructure in Odesa Oblast. (Unconfirmed, Potentially Significant)

• Kursk Oblast (Active Fighting, UKRAINIAN Counterattacks):

  • "Dva Mayora" reports ongoing cleanup operations after a recent Ukrainian counterattack near Makhnovka.
  • Russian forces (marine infantry of the "Sever" group) are reportedly advancing near Kurilovka, approaching Sudzha from the south.
  • Russian forces reportedly repelled a Ukrainian counterattack towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
  • Ukraine is reportedly transferring tanks and mercenaries (Czech and Canadian) to the region. (Highly Active Front)

• Kupyansk Direction (UKRAINIAN Counterattack, Limited Success):

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Dvurichne on the right bank of the Oskol River, where Russian forces are expanding their zone of control. The counterattack was unsuccessful. (Failed UKRAINIAN Counterattack)

• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction (Contested, Fierce Fighting):

  • Reports of counterattacks and meeting engagements. Russian forces continue to advance near Udachnoye and on the Nadeevka-Sribnoye line. (Active Fighting)

• Konstantinopol Direction (Russian Advance): * Russian forces are reportedly advancing in Andriivka, near Konstantinopol. Russian forces are also advancing towards Konstantinopol near the Sukhie Yaly River, northwest of Zelenovka. (Russian Advance)

• Zaporizhzhia Front: No reported changes.

• Civilian Casualties and Damage (Reported):

  • A civilian vehicle was struck by a drone on the Mikhaylovka-Vasilyevka road, injuring a man and a woman. Their five-year-old grandson was unharmed.
  • Multiple drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast, causing damage and one injury.
  • A man was seriously injured in Gorlovka (DPR) by cluster munitions. (Civilian Impact)

Other Developments

• "Azov" Battalion Replenishing Losses with Prisoners (Reported, UNCONFIRMED):

  • TASS, citing Andrey Marochko, reports that Ukraine is replenishing losses in the "Azov" battalion (designated a terrorist organization in Russia) near Kupyansk with prisoners. (Unconfirmed, Potentially Significant if True)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov continues to emphasize the original goals of the conflict.

• Ukraine's actions deemed as state-terrorism: Russian MoD has labeled Ukraine as state-terrorist.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREMELY DANGEROUS and ESCALATING Situation: The successful drone attack on the Saratov Oil Refinery and other targets deep inside Russia, combined with continued fighting on multiple fronts, marks a significant escalation. The impact on Russian logistics (train delays) is already evident. The reported use of up to 20 "Kalibr" missiles, if confirmed, would represent another major escalation.
• COMPLEX and PERSISTENT Air Threat: The air threat remains EXTREME and COMPLEX, with ongoing drone activity, ballistic missile threats (now including Poltava), and the demonstrated ability of Ukrainian forces to strike deep inside Russia.
• ACTIVE Ground Fighting, Multiple Fronts: Fighting is particularly intense in Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinopol directions. The reported Ukrainian counterattacks in Kursk and Kupyansk highlight their continued efforts to resist Russian advances.
• Civilian Casualties Continue: The attacks on civilian vehicles and infrastructure in Belgorod and Donetsk regions underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Air Defenses (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Adapt to the shifting threats and targets, including the new threat to Poltava.
   • Prioritize air defense assets to counter the multi-faceted threat: drones, ballistic missiles, and potential cruise missile attacks.
   • Deploy all available countermeasures, including electronic warfare systems.
   • Deploy measures to protect Nikopol.

2. VERIFY Reported Russian Advance near Dvurichna (UNCHANGED, EXTREME PRIORITY): This remains a CRITICAL intelligence priority.

3. ASSESS Damage to Saratov Oil Refinery and Other Targets (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY): Continue gathering intelligence on the long-term impact of these successful attacks, including the impact on Russian fuel supplies and logistics.

4. MONITOR US Policy Developments (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY):

5. COUNTER Russian Propaganda (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY):

6. INVESTIGATE Reports of "Azov" Replenishing with Prisoners (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to confirm or refute the TASS report. If true, this could be used for propaganda purposes and to highlight potential human rights violations.

7. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with increased emphasis on adapting to the escalating and multi-faceted threats, both in the air and on the ground.

8. Prepare for potential retaliation from Russia: Due to successful strikes.

9. Prepare to address the issue of the Russian MoD's labeling: Continue operations, focus on defeating enemy combatants.