Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 03:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 03:08 UTC, February 11)

Air and Missile Threats (Continued and Evolving)

• Saratov Oil Refinery Attack (CONFIRMED, No Casualties): TASS confirms no casualties from the drone attack on the Saratov industrial facility (identified as the Saratov Oil Refinery). ASTRA provides further video evidence of the large fire. (CONTINUED, RUSSIAN TERRITORY, MAJOR Incident)
• Ballistic Missile Threat Shift (Sumy/Poltava, CONFIRMED, Shifting Threat):
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports a "high-speed target" in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports another ballistic missile heading towards Okhtyrka/Hadyach.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic threat moving from Poltava Oblast towards Sumy Oblast.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports the missile threat as cleared. (EVOLVING Threat, Shift in Direction)
  • The threat seems to move from Poltava, in the direction of Sumy, and back again.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks (Zaporizhzhia, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian Air Force and RBK-Ukraina report launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (NEW Threat)
• Drone Activity (Multiple Regions, CONFIRMED, UPDATED):
  • Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on drone movements:
    • South Chernihiv Oblast, heading south.
    • East Kyiv Oblast, heading south.
    • Northeast Poltava Oblast, heading west/southwest.
    • Northwest Kharkiv Oblast, heading east.
  • Ukrainian Air Force warns of a drone heading towards Kharkiv from the west.
  • RBK-Ukraina confirms the drone threat to Kharkiv.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone groups in north Kharkiv Oblast, heading southwest. (CONTINUED, Multi-Directional Threat)
• Artillery attack on Nikopol: Sever.Realii: Reports two women were injured.

Other Developments

• US Considering Tariff Removal (Australia, Reported): TASS, citing Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, reports that the US is considering removing tariffs on aluminum and steel for Australia. (NEW, Potential Economic/Trade Shift)
• The Ministry of Justice (USA) has decided to drop the corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

Updated Situation Summary

• COMPLEX and DYNAMIC Air Threat: The air threat remains HIGH and COMPLEX, with a mixture of ballistic missile threats (shifting between Sumy and Poltava Oblasts), guided aerial bomb attacks (Zaporizhzhia), and ongoing drone activity across multiple regions. The successful drone attack on the Saratov Oil Refinery INSIDE RUSSIA continues to be a MAJOR development.
• Ground Situation Unchanged: No new significant ground operation updates since the previous report. The reported Russian advance near Dvurichna STILL REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• Potential Diplomatic/Economic Shifts: The reported consideration of tariff removal by the US for Australia is a minor development, but could signal potential shifts in economic relations.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Air Defenses (Ukraine-Wide, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Adapt to the shifting ballistic missile threat between Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. Maintain a high state of readiness for rapid response.
   • Prioritize air defense assets to counter the multiple threats: drones, ballistic missiles, and guided aerial bombs.
   • Deploy all available countermeasures, including electronic warfare systems.
   • Deploy countermeasures to protect Nikopol.

2. VERIFY Reported Russian Advance near Dvurichna (UNCHANGED, EXTREME PRIORITY): This remains a CRITICAL intelligence priority.

3. ASSESS Damage to Saratov Oil Refinery (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY): Continue gathering intelligence on the long-term impact of this successful attack.

4. MONITOR US Policy Developments (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY):

5. COUNTER Russian Propaganda (UNCHANGED, HIGH PRIORITY):

6. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID, with increased emphasis on adapting to the dynamic and multi-faceted air threat.