Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 02:38 UTC
Key Developments & Updates (Since 02:08 UTC, February 11)
Drone Attacks (Continued, EXPANDED Threat, CONFIRMED Kyiv Region Explosions)
Updated Drone Movements (Confirmed):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides crucial updates:
Drones in the central part of Sumy region (outskirts of Sumy city), heading southwest. (Consistent, HIGH threat to Sumy city)
Drones in the east and central part of Chernihiv region, heading west/southwest. (Consistent)
Drones in Kyiv region, heading west/southwest. (Consistent, HIGH threat to Kyiv and surrounding areas)
Drones in the north of Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north. (Shifting threat vector)
Zhytomyr Oblast Threat (Confirmed):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms a threat of drone attacks in the Korostenskyi district of Zhytomyr Oblast. (EXPANDED threat area)
Kyiv Region Explosions (Confirmed):TASS, citing Ukrainian TV channel TSN, reports explosions in Kyiv Oblast. (MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, confirms drone attacks reaching the capital region)
Engels/Saratov Airbase Attack and Reports
Russian Telegram channels are reporting that explosions are heard not just in Engels, but also in Saratov.
The locals say that the drones attacked a local oil refinery. After the so-called falling of debris, a large fire started.
Assessment: The drone threat continues to be EXTREME and is now EXPANDING geographically. The confirmed explosions in Kyiv Oblast represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and demonstrate the vulnerability of the capital region. The expanded threat to Zhytomyr Oblast further stretches Ukrainian air defenses. The ongoing attacks on multiple regions simultaneously indicate a coordinated and sustained assault.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks (Confirmed, Kherson City Targeted)
Launches on Kherson Region (Confirmed):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна confirm launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting the Kherson region.
Kherson City Targeted (Confirmed):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine specifically confirms a KAB attack directed at Kherson city.
Assessment: The continued use of guided aerial bombs, specifically targeting Kherson city, MAINTAINS A HIGH THREAT LEVEL to civilian populations and infrastructure.
Russian Claims of FPV Drone Success (Propaganda, Unverified)
Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment (Unverified):TASS releases a video purportedly showing Russian FPV drones from the "Vostok" group destroying dozens of Ukrainian vehicles and artillery over three days.
Assessment: This is likely PROPAGANDA from the Russian Ministry of Defense, intended to boost morale and portray Russian forces as dominant. The claims of "dozens" of destroyed vehicles require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. While the video shows SOME drone strikes, the scale of the claimed successes is likely EXAGGERATED.
Other Developments
USAID Aid Found with Hezbollah (No Direct Military Impact):TASS, citing The New York Post, reports that USAID humanitarian aid was found among Hezbollah weapons in Lebanon. This has NO DIRECT IMPACT on the military situation in Ukraine, but could have geopolitical implications.
Russian Aircraft Retreat (Confirmed):Николаевский Ванёк reports that Russian aircraft have returned to their bases, indicating no further launches of guided bombs.
Air Activity Over. No additional guided bombs launched.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME Drone Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): The drone attack continues, with multiple drones reported across various regions, including confirmed explosions in Kyiv Oblast. The threat is EXPANDING to new areas like Zhytomyr Oblast.
CONTINUED Air Attack Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs, specifically targeting Kherson city.
Propaganda and Unverified Claims: Russian sources claim significant successes with FPV drones, but these claims are likely exaggerated and require verification.
Other Developments (Low/No Direct Impact): Reports of USAID aid found with Hezbollah have no direct impact on the immediate military situation.
Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)
MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Drone Defenses (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Maintain a high state of alert across all regions mentioned in the drone movement updates, particularly around Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy.
Focus defenses based on the latest drone movement reports, prioritizing the protection of Kyiv and other critical infrastructure.
Deploy all available air defense assets, including electronic warfare systems, to counter the drone threat. CONSIDER deploying additional assets to Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions.
PROTECT Kherson City (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Prioritize air defense and early warning systems in Kherson city to counter the threat of guided aerial bombs.
Utilize all available countermeasures to disrupt Russian tactical aviation operations targeting the city.
Provide shelters and evacuation assistance to civilians in high-risk areas.
INVESTIGATE Kyiv Region Explosions (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Gather all available intelligence to determine the extent of the damage and casualties caused by the explosions in Kyiv Oblast.
Assess the impact on critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
Determine the type of weapons used in the attacks.
VERIFY Russian Drone Claims (Medium Priority):
While acknowledging the source's bias (Russian MoD), attempt to independently verify the claimed Ukrainian losses from FPV drone strikes.
If confirmed, assess the impact on Ukrainian operational capabilities and develop countermeasures.
All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the ongoing and expanding drone attacks, particularly the confirmed explosions in Kyiv Oblast. The continued targeting of Kherson city with guided aerial bombs also presents a major threat. The focus must remain on air defense, protecting critical infrastructure and civilian populations, and verifying claims of enemy successes. The expansion of the drone threat to Zhytomyr Oblast requires immediate attention and resource allocation.
