Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 01:38 UTC, February 11)

Drone Attack (Continued, Shifting Threat Vectors, Intensified, Engels Airbase Targeted)

• Updated Drone Movements (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны provide crucial updates:
  • Drone approaching Vyshhorod (Kyiv region). (Specific location, high threat)
  • 2 drones from the north of Kyiv region moving to Zhytomyr region. (Shifting threat vector)
  • 5 drones near Obukhiv (Kyiv region), heading west. (Consistent, high threat)
  • 1 drone east of Chernihiv, heading south. (Consistent)
  • 3 drones in the Konotop area (Sumy region). (Consistent)
  • 1 drone near Kam'yans'ke (Dnipropetrovsk region), heading northwest. (Specific location, high threat)
  • New groups of drones in the north of Sumy region, heading southwest. (Reinforces threat)
  • One drone flew past Brovary towards Kyiv. (Confirms previous reports, EXTREME threat to Kyiv)
• Engels Airbase Attack (Confirmed): РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report an attack on Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast, Russia.
  • Reports of at least 11 explosions near the airbase.
  • Sounds of automatic gunfire reported.
  • Air raid sirens activated.
  • Governor reported a drone attack threat.
  • Russian MoD claims to have intercepted drones (unverified).
  • ASTRA confirms threat alerts sent to residents via SMS.
  • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. Engels airbase is a STRATEGICALLY CRITICAL location, hosting Russian long-range bombers. The attack confirms Ukraine's ability to strike DEEP within Russian territory and target HIGH-VALUE assets. It demonstrates a significant ESCALATION and THREAT TO RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES. The reports of multiple explosions and air defense activity suggest a substantial attack, though the extent of the damage is unconfirmed.

Increased Air Activity and Bombing (Confirmed)

• Active Tactical Aviation (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeast direction.
• Threat of Air-Launched Weapons (Confirmed): A threat of air-launched weapons is declared for frontline regions, particularly Kherson.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Launches on Donetsk and Sumy Regions (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
• Assessment: The continued activity of Russian tactical aviation and the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs MAINTAINS A HIGH THREAT LEVEL across multiple regions. The targeting of Donetsk and Sumy regions reinforces the ongoing pressure on Ukrainian forces.

Other Developments

• Colonelcassad Images. The images have implications on multiple levels, including troop morale, tactical positioning, enemy activity, and propaganda.
• Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert. An air raid alert was announced for the region.
• Awards and Legal Actions (No Direct Military Impact): TASS reports that the deceased Primorye vice-governor was posthumously awarded Hero of Russia. Legal actions are being taken against musician Maxim Pokrovsky for failing to label himself as a foreign agent. These have no immediate military impact.
• NGO Opposition to Trump's Gaza Plans (No Direct Military Impact): Al Jazeera reports opposition from American and Palestinian NGOs to Trump's plans for Gaza. This has no direct impact on the military situation in Ukraine.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME Drone Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): The drone attack continues, with multiple drones reported in various regions, including Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Obukhiv, Chernihiv, Konotop, and Kam'yans'ke. The attack on Engels airbase is a MAJOR ESCALATION and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russia and target strategically critical assets.
• INCREASED Air Attack Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian tactical aviation is active, and guided aerial bombs are being used against the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson regions.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Drive (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed recruitment program remains a significant development.
• Other Developments (Low/No Direct Impact): Awards, legal actions, and NGO opposition to plans have minimal or no direct impact on the immediate military situation.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Drone Defenses (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Maintain a high state of alert across all regions mentioned in the drone movement updates, particularly around Kyiv and Vyshhorod.
   • Focus defenses based on the latest drone movement reports.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets, including electronic warfare systems, to counter the drone threat.

2. COUNTER AIR ATTACKS in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson Regions (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Prioritize air defense and early warning systems in the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kherson regions to counter the threat of guided aerial bombs.
   • Utilize all available countermeasures to disrupt Russian tactical aviation operations.

3. INVESTIGATE and ASSESS ENGELS AIRBASE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Gather all available intelligence to determine the extent of the damage to Engels airbase.
   • Assess the impact on Russian strategic bomber capabilities.
   • Determine the type of weapons used in the attack.
   • Analyze Russian air defense failures that allowed the attack to occur.

4. MONITOR and ASSESS Ukrainian Recruitment Program (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information on the program's implementation, uptake rate, and the quality of recruits.
   • Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian force capabilities in the coming months.

5. Address the implications of the Colonelcassad Images. Use the content for military propaganda and boosting troops morale. Focus intelligence gathering on identifying potential enemy activity, defensive positions, and tactical vulnerabilities.

6. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Verify and Respond to Reported Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Investigate Alleged Sabotage Attempt (High Priority). Maintain and Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities. Monitor and Adapt to Fighting in Pokrovskoe Direction and Kursk Region. Investigate Alleged Atrocity in Kursk Region (NEW, EXTREME PRIORITY, Requires Verification). Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts (EXTREME PRIORITY). Focus on Pokrovsk and Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY). Exploit Success near Vovchansk (High Priority). Exploit POW Information (High Priority). Assess Ukrainian Drone Capabilities (High Priority). Monitor Baltic Energy Situation (Medium Priority). Monitor Koala Tanker Situation (Medium Priority). Exploit Successes in Kursk Region (High Priority). Monitor diplomatic relations (High Priority). Respond to Nikopol District Attacks (EXTREME PRIORITY). Respond to Expanded Ballistic Missile Threat (HIGH PRIORITY). Closely Monitor Chasiv Yar Situation (HIGH PRIORITY).Assess Russian Counter-Drone Tactics (NEW, HIGH PRIORITY). Address Kharkiv Strike (High Priority). Counter Russian Information Campaigns (High Priority).

The situation has further DRAMATICALLY DETERIORATED with the confirmed attack on Engels airbase, demonstrating a major escalation and Ukrainian ability to strike deep within Russia. The ongoing drone attacks and the continued use of guided aerial bombs maintain a high threat level across multiple regions. The successful attack on Engels must be fully investigated and assessed for its impact on Russian strategic capabilities.