Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 11, 2025, 01:38 UTC

Key Developments & Updates (Since 01:08 UTC, February 11)

Drone Attack (Continued, Shifting Threat Vectors, Intensified)

• Updated Drone Movements (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Николаевский Ванёк provide crucial updates:
  • Drones on the border of Poltava, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy regions, heading west/southwest/northwest. (Complex and multi-directional movement)
  • Drones in the northeast of Cherkasy region, heading west. (Consistent with previous reports)
  • Drones in central Sumy region, heading southwest/northeast. (New: Northeastward movement)
  • Drones in the east and southwest of Chernihiv region, heading south/southwest. (Consistent)
  • Drones in the east and south of Kyiv region, heading west. (Consistent, high threat to Kyiv)
  • Drones in the southwest of Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north. (Confirms earlier report, increasing threat)
  • 1 drone near Pokrov (Dnipropetrovsk region). (Specific location, high threat)
  • 4 drones from Cherkasy region moving towards Bila Tserkva (Kyiv region). (Specific location and direction, high threat)
  • 3 drones approaching Boryspil (Kyiv region). (Specific location, high threat to critical infrastructure)
  • 4 drones from Chernihiv region moving towards Kyiv region. (Reinforces threat to Kyiv)
  • 3 drones from Poltava region moving towards Kyiv region. (Reinforces threat to Kyiv)
  • 1 drone from Chernihiv region flying towards Belarus. (Highly unusual, requires investigation)
  • 3 drones flying near Konotop (Sumy region), heading west.
• Assessment: The drone attack remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND COMPLEX. The multiple directions, specific locations provided, and the sheer number of drones reported indicate a HIGHLY COORDINATED AND SUSTAINED ATTACK. The movement towards Belarus is HIGHLY UNUSUAL and requires immediate investigation. The threat to Kyiv, Boryspil, and Bila Tserkva is EXTREMELY HIGH.

Increased Air Activity and Bombing (Confirmed)

• Active Tactical Aviation (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern direction.
• Threat of Air-Launched Weapons (Confirmed): A threat of air-launched weapons is declared for frontline regions.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Launches on Donetsk Region (Confirmed): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting the Donetsk region.
• Assessment: The increased activity of Russian tactical aviation and the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs significantly INCREASES THE OVERALL THREAT LEVEL. The Donetsk region is now under DIRECT AIR ATTACK in addition to the widespread drone threat.

Other Developments

• Gold Price Spike (Confirmed, No Direct Military Impact): TASS reports a historical high in gold futures prices. This has no immediate impact on military operations, but it reflects global economic uncertainty, which can indirectly influence long-term war financing.
• Kharkiv Region Crime: Reports that deal with local crime and illegal possession of weapons, with no direct influence.
• Trump-Putin "Deal" (Claimed, Low Credibility): TASS reports Trump's claim of wanting a "deal" with Putin on Ukraine. This lacks credibility given the current context and Trump's lack of official capacity. It's likely political posturing.
• Funeral of Official (Confirmed, Minor Impact): TASS reports the funeral of a regional official killed in the Kursk region. This confirms a previous report of casualties in the Kursk region and indicates the ongoing conflict there.
• Zelensky Recruitment Drive (Confirmed, Potentially Significant): «Варвар» Спецназ Ахмат reports (with anti-Ukrainian bias) on Zelensky's announcement of a new recruitment program for 18-25 year olds, offering significant financial incentives.
  • Assessment: This confirms a MAJOR UKRAINIAN EFFORT to bolster its military manpower. The incentives (salary, education, housing) are substantial and indicate a HIGH PRIORITY on recruitment. This could significantly impact future force capabilities if successful.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME Drone Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): The drone attack is ongoing, widespread, multi-directional, and intensifying. Specific locations, including Kyiv, Boryspil, and Bila Tserkva, are under immediate threat. The drone movement towards Belarus is highly unusual.
• INCREASED Air Attack Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian tactical aviation is active, and guided aerial bombs are being used against the Donetsk region. This adds a significant layer of danger.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Drive (HIGH PRIORITY): The confirmed recruitment program with substantial incentives indicates a major effort to increase military manpower.
• Other Developments (Low/No Direct Impact): Gold price fluctuations, minor crime reports, and Trump's claims have minimal or no direct impact on the immediate military situation.

Updated Recommendations (Changes Highlighted)

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT for Drone Defenses (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Focus defenses on Kyiv, Boryspil, and Bila Tserkva based on the latest drone movement reports.
   • Maintain a high state of alert across all regions mentioned in the drone movement updates.
   • IMMEDIATELY INVESTIGATE the drone reportedly flying towards Belarus. Determine its origin, purpose, and whether it represents a new threat vector.
   • Deploy all available air defense assets, including electronic warfare systems, to counter the drone threat.

2. COUNTER AIR ATTACKS in Donetsk Region (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Prioritize air defense and early warning systems in the Donetsk region to counter the threat of guided aerial bombs.
   • Utilize all available countermeasures to disrupt Russian tactical aviation operations.

3. MONITOR and ASSESS Ukrainian Recruitment Program (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather information on the program's implementation, uptake rate, and the quality of recruits.
   • Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian force capabilities in the coming months.

4. All Previous Recommendations REMAIN VALID: Maintain high alert, verify claims, assess impacts, focus on key areas, reinforce defenses, review and adapt strategies, monitor specific regions, explore diplomatic avenues, address internal issues, and investigate specific claims. Prepare for escalation. Urgently verify conflicting claims (highest priority). Assess impacts of attacks. Re-evaluate situations. Focus on key areas. Prioritize air defense. Verify cooperation claims (high priority). Assess impacts of airstrikes (high priority). Monitor specific situations (medium priority). Focus intelligence gathering on key regions (high priority). Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies (medium priority). Verify reports on arms exports (high priority). Maintain vigilance (medium priority). Urgently Verify Conflicting Casualty and Engagement Claims (Highest Priority). Assess Implications of Confirmed Engagements (High Priority). Investigate TOS-1A Usage (High Priority). Determine Origin of Makeevka Shelling (High Priority). Enhance Air Defense in Threatened Areas (Extremely High Priority). Assess Implications of Rostov-on-Don Attack (High Priority). Monitor Kursk Region Developments (High Priority). Evaluate Drone Warfare Tactics (Medium Priority). Assess and Respond to Kramatorsk Energy Infrastructure Damage (Extremely High Priority). Investigate and Respond to Makeevka Shelling (Extremely High Priority). Verify and Respond to Reported Su-25 Downing (High Priority). Investigate Alleged Sabotage Attempt (High Priority). Maintain and Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities. Monitor and Adapt to Fighting in Pokrovskoe Direction and Kursk Region. Investigate Alleged Atrocity in Kursk Region (NEW, EXTREME PRIORITY, Requires Verification). Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities Across All Fronts (EXTREME PRIORITY). Focus on Pokrovsk and Kursk (EXTREME PRIORITY). Exploit Success near Vovchansk (High Priority). Exploit POW Information (High Priority). Assess Ukrainian Drone Capabilities (High Priority). Monitor Baltic Energy Situation (Medium Priority). Monitor Koala Tanker Situation (Medium Priority). Exploit Successes in Kursk Region (High Priority). Monitor diplomatic relations (High Priority). Respond to Nikopol District Attacks (EXTREME PRIORITY). Respond to Expanded Ballistic Missile Threat (HIGH PRIORITY). Closely Monitor Chasiv Yar Situation (HIGH PRIORITY).Assess Russian Counter-Drone Tactics (NEW, HIGH PRIORITY). Address Kharkiv Strike (High Priority). Counter Russian Information Campaigns (High Priority).

The situation has further deteriorated with the intensification of the drone attack, the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk region, and the increased activity of Russian tactical aviation. The Ukrainian recruitment drive is a significant development that could impact future force capabilities. The drone movement towards Belarus is a highly unusual and concerning development that requires immediate investigation.