Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 14:08 UTC

Major Updates (13:38 UTC - 14:08 UTC)

1. Threat of Air Strikes (CONFIRMED, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:40 UTC): Reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of using air-delivered weapons in frontline areas.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:44 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the east of Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:48 UTC): Reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in the threat of air strikes. The use of guided aerial bombs indicates a higher level of precision and destructive capability compared to unguided munitions. The targets in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts are likely Ukrainian military positions or infrastructure. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE MEASURES ARE CRUCIAL.

2. Russian FPV Drone Strike (CONFIRMED):

   • MoD Russia (13:47 UTC): Shows video footage of an FPV drone team of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralizing a Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle in the Donetsk People's Republic.
   • Assessment: This operation could be a retaliation for Ukraine targeting the civilian car.

3. Arrests in Kaliningrad Region (REPORTED):

   • ASTRA (13:40 UTC): Reports the arrest of the head of Baltiysk and his deputy in the Kaliningrad region on charges of bribery.
   • Assessment: This is primarily an internal Russian matter, but could impact local administration and potentially military-related activities in the region, given Kaliningrad's strategic importance. Monitor for any impact on military operations or logistics.

• Два майора (13:46 UTC): Reports on the same case, highlighting that the charges relate to damage of 300 million rubles in the construction of facilities for the Ministry of Defense. This reinforces the potential impact on military infrastructure projects in the region.

4. Fighting Near Kupyansk (REPORTED):

   • Kotsnews (13:58 UTC), Старше Эдды (13:59 UTC): Reports of a "new cauldron" forming for Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk, specifically mentioning the retreat of the Kurakhovo garrison to Ulakly and Konstantynopil. Claims Russian forces are attempting to encircle Dachne from the south (near Sukhykh Yaliv) and north (near Andriivka).
   • Assessment: These are RUSSIAN SOURCES claiming significant advances and the potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces. Independent verification is crucial. If true, this would represent a major Russian tactical success. The mention of a "cauldron" suggests a repeat of previous Russian encirclement tactics. The potential for high Ukrainian casualties in such a scenario is a concern.

5. Further Advances in the Dnipropetrovsk Direction (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• *Военкор Котенок (13:55 UTC):* Claims Russian units are solidifying positions in Uspenivka and are attacking Novooleksandrivka. To the south, around Nadiynka, Russian assault units are attacking in the directions of Novopavlivka, Kotlyarivka, and Preobrazhenka. Claims advances of up to 1.6 km in the direction of Novopavlivka and up to 2 km southwest of Nadiynka. Claims forward assault groups have reached within 700-800 meters of Preobrazhenka from the north. States that the enemy (Ukrainian forces) is counterattacking, including with the use of armored vehicles, artillery, and drones, trying to prevent further advancement in this area. Claims fighting is ongoing in the center of Zaporizhzhia (DPR), with several more houses captured. Reports heavy fighting south of Yaseneve and in the area of the Stavkovaya gully for control of the T-0515 road.
  

• **Assessment:** This indicates continued fighting in the Dnipropetrovsk direction.
  

6. Propaganda and Information Warfare (ONGOING):

   • Various sources continue to promote narratives favorable to their respective sides, including claims of enemy atrocities, military successes, and internal problems within the opposing side. Critical evaluation of all sources remains essential.

7. EU Discussing Arrest of Russian Tankers (REPORTED):

   • STERNENKO (13:42 UTC): Reports that the EU is discussing mechanisms for arresting Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea due to alleged violations of sanctions, environmental threats, and suspicions of sabotage. Claims 348 ships from the "shadow fleet" departed from Baltic ports in 2024, accounting for 40% of Russia's total exports. Nearly 50% of Russian oil goes through the Gulf of Finland.
   • Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. If implemented, this could significantly disrupt Russian oil exports and have a major impact on the Russian economy. However, the report also notes limitations under international maritime law, making such actions challenging outside territorial waters. The feasibility and legality of such measures require careful consideration.

8. Ukraine Not Expecting Imminent End to War (CONFIRMED):

• *РБК-Україна (13:42 UTC):* Reports that a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov, stated that an imminent end to the full-scale war in Ukraine should not be expected. He emphasized the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian political and military leadership, diplomats, and partners to work towards this goal.
  

• Assessment: This reiterates that a protracted conflict is the current forecast.

9. Ukrainian Forces Targeted (REPORTED):
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (14:01 UTC): Shows a video of an infantry group getting off a vehicle. The first vehicle is hit, and the second leaves. The infantry is targeted.
   • Assessment: This continues to prove the ongoing fighting.

• Воин DV (14:01 UTC): Claims that in the area of the Sukhi Yaly River, northwest of Zelenivka, assault units of the Far Eastern warriors are advancing in the direction of Konstantynopil. Claims 3 pickups and over 10 enemy soldiers were destroyed. Claims that near Velyka Novosilka, the "Vostok" group continues to penetrate deeper into the enemy's defenses to the west of the settlement. Claims that artillery and UAVs are inflicting damage on enemy personnel and equipment. States that several forest belts were cleared and a number of strongholds were captured.
• Assessment: This indicates fighting.

10. Continued Discussion Over Shahed Drones (REPORTED):

• *РБК-Україна (14:02 UTC):* Posts a video in which an aviation expert states that no matter how many "Shahed" warehouses are destroyed, the drones will continue to fly. He emphasizes the need to strike the drone manufacturing plant, which is the most effective approach.
  

• Assessment: This would impact the Russian capacity for drone warfare.

11. Drone Attack in Krasnodar (REPORTED):

• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:04 UTC): Posts a video claiming a drone attack in Krasnodar.
• Assessment: This could be a Ukrainian operation or a Russian false flag.

12. Ukrainian Demographic Decline (REPORTED):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (14:06 UTC): Claims that in Russia, over three years of war, the natural decline of "orcs" (derogatory term for Russians) reached 1.5 million people. States that the natural population decline in Russia in 2024 was at least 545,000 people. Claims that, according to official data, over three years of war, 1.6 million more people died than were born in Russia.
    • Assessment: This could be exaggerated, or it could show a significant weakness.

13. Additional Claims of Fighting (REPORTED):

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (14:07 UTC): Claims the destruction of enemy equipment and personnel near Russkaya Konopelka in the Kursk region. Claims that enemy armored vehicles advanced in the direction of Russkaya Konopelka for rotation and offensive actions, and that Russian helicopter crews hit enemy equipment, with UAV operators finishing off the dismounted infantry.
• Assessment: This reports indicates continued fighting.

Updated Situation Summary

• Escalating Air Threat (EXTREME PRIORITY): The confirmed threat of Russian air strikes, particularly with guided aerial bombs, in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts is a MAJOR CONCERN requiring IMMEDIATE ACTION.
• Potential Encirclement Near Kupyansk (HIGH PRIORITY): Russian sources claim significant advances and the potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk. This requires URGENT VERIFICATION.
• Continued Fighting in Multiple Regions (HIGH PRIORITY): Fighting continues in the Kursk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions, with confirmed artillery and drone strikes. The Dnipropetrovsk direction is also seeing increased fighting.
• Potential Disruption of Russian Oil Exports (HIGH PRIORITY): The reported EU discussions about arresting Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea could have a major impact on the Russian economy. Monitor developments closely.
• Protracted Conflict Expected (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian intelligence confirms that a quick end to the war is not anticipated.
• Information Warfare Continues (ONGOING): Both sides continue to engage in propaganda and information warfare.

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Immediately deploy all available air defense assets to Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts to counter the threat of Russian air strikes, particularly guided aerial bombs.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military positions.
   • Issue air raid alerts to the civilian population and provide clear instructions on seeking shelter.

2. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of Encirclement Near Kupyansk (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to verify the Russian claims of advances and potential encirclement near Kupyansk.
   • Assess the strength and disposition of Ukrainian forces in the area.
   • Develop contingency plans for a potential breakthrough or encirclement, including options for reinforcement, withdrawal, or counterattack.

3. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS in the Baltic Sea (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor the EU discussions regarding the potential arrest of Russian tankers.
   • Assess the potential impact on Russian oil exports and the Russian economy.
   • Consider the implications for regional security and potential Russian responses.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense and counter-drone measures across all threatened regions.
   • Improve early warning systems and provide timely alerts to civilians.

5. Address the issues within the Russian Military (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Investigate the claims that the Russian military shot down their own drone.
• Investigate the claims of the Russian prisoner of war.
• Investigate the reports of problems within the Russian military.

6. MONITOR UKRAINIAN MLRS OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor Ukrainian BM-21 "Grad" operations in the Kherson region, paying particular attention to potential civilian casualties.
   • Reinforce the importance of accurate targeting and adherence to the rules of engagement.

7. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the political situation in Romania and its potential impact on regional security and support for Ukraine.

8. CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED CONFLICT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain focus on long-term strategies for sustaining the war effort.
   • Manage public expectations and maintain international support.

9. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF UKRAINIAN TERRORIST ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate the reported UAV attack on a civilian car in the Zaporozhye region.
   • Gather evidence to support the Russian claim.

10. ADDRESS RUSSIAN SANCTION EVASION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the claim that the Russian company is purchasing American and German products.
    • If confirmed, address the issue to ensure the products do not reach Russia.

11. MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence on the political situation in Romania, including the reasons for the President's resignation and the upcoming elections.
    • Assess the potential impact on regional stability, NATO cohesion, and support for Ukraine.
    • Develop contingency plans for potential scenarios, including increased Russian influence or instability in Romania.

12. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR AND MISSILE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Maintain air defense readiness across Ukraine, focusing on areas identified in the Russian strike timeline.
    • Continue to improve early warning systems and provide timely alerts to civilians.

13. LEVERAGE LITHUANIAN SUPPORT FOR DRONE AND ANTI-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Coordinate closely with Lithuania to ensure the effective delivery and integration of the provided drones and anti-drone systems.
    • Facilitate the sharing of expertise and best practices in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.

14. CONTINUE COUNTER-DRONE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems and physical defenses.
    • Train personnel on counter-drone tactics and procedures.

15. PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED CONFLICT (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Develop long-term strategies for sustaining the war effort, including resource mobilization, training, and logistics.
    • Manage public expectations regarding the duration of the conflict.
    • Maintain focus on both military and diplomatic efforts.

The situation remains highly volatile, with a significant escalation in the threat of air strikes and potential major developments on the ground near Kupyansk. The potential disruption of Russian oil exports and the ongoing information warfare add further complexity.