Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 13:38 UTC

Major Updates (13:08 UTC - 13:38 UTC)

1. Russian Drone Strike on Civilian Car Confirmed (Zaporizhzhia Region, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • TASS (13:21 UTC): Confirms two civilian casualties from a Ukrainian UAV attack on a civilian car in the Zaporizhzhia region. A child in the car was unharmed. *This corroborates the earlier report from "Два майора" (13:04 UTC).
   • Assessment: This is a CONFIRMED instance of Ukrainian forces targeting a civilian vehicle, resulting in casualties. This action constitutes a serious violation of the rules of engagement and international law. The deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime. This incident DEMANDS IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION and ACTION.

2. Russian Artillery Strikes (Confirmed, High Priority):

   • MoD Russia (13:17 UTC): Shows a video of Giatsint-S self-propelled guns of the Zapad Group of Forces, neutralizing camouflaged platoon strongholds, manpower and military hardware of the AFU.
   • Assessment: This operation could be a retaliation for Ukraine targeting the civilian car.

3. Ukrainian MLRS Operation (Confirmed, Kherson Region, High Priority):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (13:36 UTC): Shows video footage of the 63rd Brigade's rocket battery conducting combat operations in the Kherson region, utilizing a BM-21 "Grad" multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS). The video highlights rapid deployment, concealment, and firing.
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Ukrainian artillery operations in the Kherson region. The use of the BM-21 "Grad" indicates an area bombardment capability. The emphasis on mobility and concealment suggests awareness of the threat from Russian counter-battery fire. The potential for civilian casualties due to the imprecise nature of the Grad system requires CAREFUL MONITORING.

4. Alleged Atrocities by Ukrainian Forces in Kursk Region (REPORTED, EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Alex Parker Returns (13:26 UTC): Claims confirmation of "mass war crimes" against civilians in Russkoye Porechnoye, Kursk region, Russia. Alleges over 2,000 residents missing and testimonies of rape, murder, and looting by Ukrainian forces. Claims the Russian Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case.
   • Assessment: These are extremely serious allegations, and require IMMEDIATE, THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. If confirmed, these acts constitute war crimes on a massive scale. However, the source (Alex Parker Returns) is known for pro-Russian bias and propaganda, so VERIFICATION FROM INDEPENDENT SOURCES IS ESSENTIAL. The claim that Russian ombudsman Moskal'kova is downplaying the events is also concerning and requires investigation.

• Alex Parker Returns also repeats these claims at (13:36 UTC), further attempting to demonize Ukrainian forces.

5. Drone Strike on Armored Vehicle in Chasov Yar (REPORTED):

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (13:31 UTC): Posts a video of a Ukrainian "Spartan" tank hitting a mine and subsequently being destroyed by Russian FPV drones.
• Assessment: This would be a loss of a Ukrainian vehicle.

6. Fighting Near Nevskoye (CONFIRMED):

   • Colonelcassad (13:11 UTC): Posts images of destroyed vehicles (American M113, Ukrainian T-72M1, and Russian T-90M) near Nevskoye, indicating intense fighting.
   • Assessment: This proves fighting continues.

7. Russian Drone Strikes in Kursk Region (REPORTED):

   • Два майора (13:30 UTC): Posts a video of Russian drone strikes targeting Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, specifically near Makhnovka and Fanaseevka.
   • Assessment: This further confirms the ongoing cross-border fighting in the Kursk region. The use of drones for targeted strikes highlights the prevalence of this tactic.

8. Russian Sanction Circumvention for REB Production (REPORTED, HIGH PRIORITY):

   • The earlier report from Оперативний ЗСУ (13:06 UTC) regarding a sanctioned Russian company purchasing American and German equipment for REB production remains a HIGH PRIORITY for investigation. This highlights the potential for SANCTION EVASION and the need for stricter enforcement.

9. Ukrainian General Staff Recruiting Communications Specialists (CONFIRMED):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (13:32 UTC): Posts an announcement seeking communications specialists to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This indicates a focus on strengthening strategic communication capabilities within the Ukrainian military. This could be for information warfare, public relations, or internal communications.

10. Allegations of Russian "Friendly Fire" Drone Incident (REPORTED, MEDIUM PRIORITY):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:26 UTC): Claims Russian forces shot down their own "Eleron-3" reconnaissance drone and then falsely marked it with Ukrainian and German insignia to receive awards.
    • Assessment: This report, if true, highlights potential issues with Russian military discipline, coordination, and honesty. It could also be a deliberate attempt at disinformation. Further investigation is needed.

11. Lithuanian Request for EU Funding for Underwater Infrastructure Protection (REPORTED):

• Два майора (13:14 UTC): Claims that Lithuania's Prime Minister, has requested around €32-34 million from the European Commission for protecting underwater infrastructure.
• Assessment: This could impact funding of other resources, if true.

12. Additional Reports and Claims (Low Strategic Impact):

• Alex Parker Returns (13:09 UTC): Reports on the sentencing of a Russian blogger for spreading "fakes" about the army. No direct military impact. * Рыбарь (13:09 UTC): Reports on US sanctions allegedly disrupting a gas project in Mauritania. No direct impact on the Ukraine conflict.
• ТАСС (13:26 UTC): Reports that a businessman involved in the creation of Spyker sports cars has been declared internationally wanted. No military relevance.
• Новости Москвы (13:28 UTC): Reports that the personal cleaner of a VTB top manager stole a collection of elite watches and cufflinks worth more than 50 million rubles. No military relevance.
  • Рыбарь (13:35 UTC): Celebrates the 7th anniversary of the Rybar project. No military relevance.
• Север.Реалии (13:22 UTC): Reports that a case of embezzlement of more than 300 million rubles was launched in the construction of facilities for the Ministry of Defense in the Kaliningrad region. No military relevance.
• МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (13:13 UTC): Reports a conscript died because of medical neglect. No military relevance.
• Старше Эдды (13:34 UTC): Announces job positions at Loaev Arms. No military relevance.
• Басурин о главном (13:35 UTC): Repeats a claim of 60,000 Ukrainian casualties. No military relevance.

Updated Situation Summary

• Confirmed War Crime: Ukrainian Drone Attack on Civilian Car (EXTREME PRIORITY): The CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone strike on a civilian vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in casualties, is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and constitutes a war crime. This incident requires IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION and ACTION.
• Allegations of Mass Atrocities in Kursk Region (EXTREME PRIORITY): The reports of mass war crimes by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, Russia, are extremely serious and DEMAND IMMEDIATE, THOROUGH, and INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION. Verification of these claims is of UTMOST IMPORTANCE.
• Continued Drone Warfare (HIGH PRIORITY): Drone warfare remains a prominent feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on a civilian vehicle highlights the devastating potential of this technology and the need for strict adherence to the rules of engagement.
• Ongoing Fighting in Multiple Regions (HIGH PRIORITY): Fighting continues in the Kursk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, with confirmed artillery and drone strikes.
• Potential for Russian Sanction Evasion (HIGH PRIORITY): The report of a sanctioned Russian company attempting to purchase Western technology for REB production requires urgent investigation and action to prevent circumvention of sanctions.
• Ukrainian Military Strengthening Communication Capabilities (CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian military is actively recruiting communications specialists, indicating a focus on information warfare and strategic communication.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION and CONDEMNATION of Ukrainian Drone Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Demand an immediate and thorough investigation by international organizations (UN, OSCE, etc.) into the Ukrainian drone strike on the civilian vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region.
   • Publicly condemn the attack and emphasize that targeting civilians is a war crime.
   • Gather all available evidence (satellite imagery, witness testimonies, drone flight data, etc.) to support the investigation.
   • Demand accountability for those responsible for the attack.
   • Review and reinforce rules of engagement for all Ukrainian forces operating drones, emphasizing the absolute prohibition of targeting civilians.

2. URGENT INVESTIGATION of Alleged Atrocities in Kursk Region (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Launch an immediate and independent investigation into the allegations of mass war crimes by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.
   • Seek access to the affected areas to gather evidence and interview witnesses.
   • Coordinate with international organizations to ensure the investigation is impartial and credible.
   • If the allegations are confirmed, demand accountability for those responsible and take steps to prevent future atrocities.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN SANCTION EVASION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Thoroughly investigate the report of a sanctioned Russian company attempting to purchase Western technology for REB production.
   • Work with international partners to identify and disrupt any attempts to circumvent sanctions.
   • Strengthen export controls and monitoring mechanisms to prevent the transfer of sensitive technology to Russia.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense and counter-drone measures across all threatened regions.
   • Improve early warning systems and provide timely alerts to civilians.

5. Address the issues within the Russian Military (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Investigate the claims that the Russian military shot down their own drone.
• Investigate the claims of the Russian prisoner of war.
• Investigate the reports of problems within the Russian military.

6. MONITOR UKRAINIAN MLRS OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Closely monitor Ukrainian BM-21 "Grad" operations in the Kherson region, paying particular attention to potential civilian casualties.
   • Reinforce the importance of accurate targeting and adherence to the rules of engagement.

7. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the political situation in Romania and its potential impact on regional security and support for Ukraine.

8. CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED CONFLICT (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Maintain focus on long-term strategies for sustaining the war effort.
   • Manage public expectations and maintain international support.

9. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF UKRAINIAN TERRORIST ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to investigate the reported UAV attack on a civilian car in the Zaporozhye region.
   • Gather evidence to support the Russian claim.

10. ADDRESS RUSSIAN SANCTION EVASION (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Deploy all available intelligence assets to verify the claim that the Russian company is purchasing American and German products.
    • If confirmed, address the issue to ensure the products do not reach Russia.

11. MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA (EXTREME PRIORITY):

    • Gather intelligence on the political situation in Romania, including the reasons for the President's resignation and the upcoming elections.
    • Assess the potential impact on regional stability, NATO cohesion, and support for Ukraine.
    • Develop contingency plans for potential scenarios, including increased Russian influence or instability in Romania.

12. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR AND MISSILE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Maintain air defense readiness across Ukraine, focusing on areas identified in the Russian strike timeline.
    • Continue to improve early warning systems and provide timely alerts to civilians.

13. LEVERAGE LITHUANIAN SUPPORT FOR DRONE AND ANTI-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Coordinate closely with Lithuania to ensure the effective delivery and integration of the provided drones and anti-drone systems.
    • Facilitate the sharing of expertise and best practices in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.

14. CONTINUE COUNTER-DRONE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Prioritize the development and deployment of counter-drone technologies, including electronic warfare systems and physical defenses.
    • Train personnel on counter-drone tactics and procedures.

15. PREPARE FOR A PROTRACTED CONFLICT (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Develop long-term strategies for sustaining the war effort, including resource mobilization, training, and logistics.
    • Manage public expectations regarding the duration of the conflict.
    • Maintain focus on both military and diplomatic efforts.

The situation has become significantly more serious due to the confirmed Ukrainian drone strike on a civilian vehicle and the extremely grave allegations of mass atrocities in the Kursk region. These events demand immediate and decisive action to investigate, condemn, and hold those responsible accountable. The ongoing reliance on drone warfare and the potential for Russian sanction evasion remain high priorities.