Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 08:38 UTC

Major Updates (08:08 UTC - 08:38 UTC)

1. Mezhova, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Strike on Ukrainian Marine Brigade Command Post (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika: Claims a Russian strike on a Ukrainian 35th Separate Marine Brigade command post in Mezhova, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The report alleges the destruction of an operational communications center, a secure communications server room, data storage systems, digital archives with brigade task and logistics information, tactical maps, archival documents, and technical equipment. It also claims damage to a vehicle parking area and the destruction of a Ford F-550 based command-staff vehicle.
   • Assessment: This is a significant claim that requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would represent a substantial blow to Ukrainian command and control capabilities in the region. The specificity of the claimed damage (communications center, server room, data archives) suggests a potentially well-informed source, but it could also be deliberate disinformation.

2. Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, FPV Drone Strike and Radar Station Destruction (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Voin DV: Claims the destruction of a Ukrainian P-18 radar station near Ovcharnoe, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by an X-35 air strike.
   • Colonelcassad: Claims Russian forces used "VT-40" fiber-optic guided FPV drones in the Kursk region. Video footage shows the destruction of Ukrainian equipment.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. The use of an X-35 missile against a radar station, if true, would showcase Russian long-range strike capabilities.

3. Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Strike on German PzH 2000 (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika: Claims a Russian drone strike on a camouflaged German PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer near Chasiv Yar. Video.
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If true, it further demonstrates Russian capabilities in targeting high-value Western-supplied equipment.

4. Pokrovsk direction, FPV Strike. (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • MoD Russia: An FPV drone team engaged camouflaged vehicles.
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification.

5. Uspenivka, Donetsk Oblast, Claimed Capture (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • TASS: Reports that Russian forces have almost completely cleared Uspenivka, west of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If confirmed, this would represent a further Russian advance in the Donetsk region, potentially threatening Ukrainian positions in Pokrovsk.

6. Air Raid Alert in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Issued a threat of aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This confirms the immediate threat of air attacks in the region, supporting the reports of Russian strikes.

7. Kursk Region, Alleged Killing of Veteran (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Alex Parker Returns: Claims Ukrainian forces robbed, tortured, and killed a WWII veteran in the Sudzhansky District, Kursk Region. Includes graphic images.
   • Assessment: This requires urgent independent verification. The images are graphic and disturbing, and the claim, if true, would constitute a war crime. However, given the source's strong anti-Ukrainian bias, this could be disinformation.

8. Espionage Efforts (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED)

   • Kotsnews: Claims Russian military intelligence is offering financial rewards for information on Ukrainian military and foreign combatants, targeting Ukrainian citizens through a Telegram bot.
   • Assessment: This indicates the efforts of Russian forces.

9. Reported Destruction of Ukrainian Troops in Kursk (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • TASS: Citing Apty Alaudinov, reports that most of the Ukrainian troops that entered Kursk Oblast in August 2024 have been "destroyed". Video.
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification. The claim of significant Ukrainian losses needs to be corroborated with other sources.

10. Kharkiv Oblast, Drone Attack Aftermath (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

    • ASTRA: Reports that a fire caused by a Russian drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast took 5 hours to extinguish, under the threat of further shelling. The fire affected an agricultural enterprise in the Volchansk community. Also reports injuries and damage from shelling in other parts of the region.
    • Assessment: This confirms continued attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, causing significant damage and endangering emergency responders.

11. Propaganda (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

    • Operativnyi ZSU: Images show donkeys with Israeli and US flags, and puppets mocking Netanyahu and Trump, in Iran, during the "day of victory of the Islamic revolution".
    • Assessment: This is a confirmation of Iranian propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

• Potential Major Ukrainian Command and Control Loss (UNCLEAR): The claimed strike on the 35th Marine Brigade command post in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, if confirmed, is a critical development. It would significantly degrade Ukrainian capabilities in the region.
• Claims of Russian Advance near Pokrovsk (UNCLEAR): The reported near-capture of Uspenivka needs independent verification, but it signals a continuing Russian offensive in the Donetsk region.
• Continued Attacks on Kharkiv Oblast (CONFIRMED): The confirmed fire caused by a drone attack and the ongoing shelling underscore the persistent threat to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Alleged War Crime in Kursk (UNCLEAR): The claim of a veteran's killing by Ukrainian forces needs urgent investigation, but its source raises concerns about potential disinformation.
• Drone Warfare Escalation (REPORTED/UNCLEAR): Claims of successful drone strikes against high-value targets (radar, PzH 2000) highlight the increasing role of unmanned systems in the conflict. The introduction of a "fiber-optic guided FPV drone" by Russian forces, if confirmed, marks a technological advancement.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY Verify Claims of Command Post Strike and Russian Advances (HIGHEST PRIORITY):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the reported strike on the 35th Marine Brigade command post in Mezhova and the claimed capture of Uspenivka.

2. Strengthen Air Defenses in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Given the confirmed air raid alert in Dnipropetrovsk and the ongoing attacks in Kharkiv, prioritize air defense readiness in these regions.
   • Assess and potentially reposition air defense assets to counter the reported threat.

3. Investigate Alleged War Crime in Kursk (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Seek independent verification of the reported killing of the veteran in the Kursk region.
   • Gather any available evidence (forensic analysis, witness testimonies) to determine the circumstances and perpetrators.

4. Counteract Enemy Propaganda (High Priority): Launch an information campaign countering claims regarding EU plans to seize Russian tankers, or threats against Russian Diplomats.

5. Address Implications of Widespread Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Assess the effectiveness of current air defense strategies in light of the large-scale drone attacks.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
   • Explore options for increasing the quantity and effectiveness of air defense systems, including electronic warfare countermeasures.

6. Assess and Counteract Reported Technological Advancements (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the claimed "VT-40" fiber-optic guided FPV drone and the reported use of the X-35 missile against a radar station.
   • Develop countermeasures to mitigate the threat posed by these systems.

7. Exploit Success of Drone Interceptions (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

8. Support Efforts to Acquire EW-Resistant Drones (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

9. Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

10. Reinforce Logistical Routes (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

11. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

12. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

13. Address Espionage Concerns (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

14. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

15. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

16. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.

17. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.

18. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains extremely dynamic and volatile. The potential loss of a key Ukrainian command post and the ongoing attacks on civilian areas represent major concerns. Claims of Russian advances and new weapons systems require urgent verification. The alleged war crime in Kursk necessitates a thorough investigation, while remaining mindful of potential disinformation.