Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 08:08 UTC

Major Updates (07:38 UTC - 08:08 UTC)

1. Nikopol Area Shelling (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • ASTRA: Reports Russian shelling of the Nikopol area using Grad MLRS, heavy artillery, kamikaze drones, and loitering munitions. Targets included Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities. Damage includes two industrial enterprises, one private house destroyed and 17 damaged, two five-story buildings, 12 outbuildings, a shop, a car, gas pipelines, and power lines.
   • Assessment: This confirms continued intense shelling of the Nikopol area, targeting civilian infrastructure and causing widespread damage. The use of multiple weapon systems indicates a deliberate effort to inflict maximum damage.

2. Territorial Changes (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad: Claims Russian forces advanced near Verkhnokamyanske, expanded the zone of control in Sverdlykove, liberated Uspenivka, and advanced in Udachne and near Novooleksandrivka. Includes maps.
   • Assessment: These claims require independent verification. If confirmed, they would represent significant Russian advances in multiple sectors. The maps provided by Colonelcassad should be compared with other sources for corroboration.

3. Sumy Drone Attack Aftermath (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Office of the Prosecutor General: Confirms a drone attack in Sumy on February 9 at around 22:50, hitting a parking lot in a residential area. One civilian was injured. Six vehicles were completely destroyed, and 15 were damaged. Four apartment buildings had windows blown out. A pre-trial investigation for war crimes (Article 438, Part 1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) has been initiated. Multiple photos provided.
   • Assessment: Corroborates earlier reports, providing further details and official confirmation of the investigation into potential war crimes. The images provide visual evidence of the scale of the damage.

4. Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka Airstrikes Aftermath (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Office of the Prosecutor General: Reports Russian airstrikes on residential areas of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka on February 9, 2025, between 21:15 and 21:40, using FAB-250 bombs with UMPK (Unified Planning and Correction Module). In Kramatorsk, one person died, seven were injured. In Kostiantynivka, five people were injured. Damage includes at least 26 private and multi-story buildings, 76 garages, 24 cars, 7 power lines, and a gas pipeline. Investigations for war crimes (Article 438, Parts 1 and 2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) are underway.
   • Assessment: This confirms the use of powerful guided bombs against civilian areas, resulting in casualties and widespread damage. The targeting of residential areas constitutes a potential war crime.

5. Poltava Region Drone Attack (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Operativnyi ZSU: Reports that a Russian drone attack damaged 10 private households in the Myrhorod district of Poltava Oblast. No casualties reported.
   • Assessment: This is a confirmed new attack.

6. Kursk Region Fighting (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Dva Mayora: Claims fighting continues in the Kursk region. Enemy reportedly reinforced positions near Stara/Nova Sorochyna and increased the number of reconnaissance and attack UAV operators to complicate Russian logistics. The enemy is also reported to be attempting evacuation and reinforcement near Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka. Russian forces have reportedly cleared a forest south of Fanaseevka and forced the enemy out of the village. Advances are also reported east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka, near a dam. Video.
   • Assessment: These are Russian claims and require independent verification.

7. Xi Jinping to Attend Victory Day Parade (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • RBC-Ukraine: Reports that Russian Ambassador to China Igor Morgulov claims Chinese leader Xi Jinping has accepted an invitation to attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9. Chinese side has not commented.
   • Assessment: This is a report based on a Russian official's statement, and requires confirmation from Chinese sources. If confirmed, it would signal continued strong ties between Russia and China.

8. Zelensky to Meet with US VP at Munich Security Conference (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights: Reports that US Vice President Kamala Harris will meet with Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference, starting February 14.
   • Assessment: This meeting, if it takes place, is significant for continued US-Ukraine cooperation.

9. Estonian Soldiers Suffer Frostbite During Exercise (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • Dva Mayora: Citing the Estonian newspaper Postimees, reports that Estonian soldiers suffered frostbite during exercises due to a lack of necessary equipment. Soldiers reportedly had to cross the Valge River.
   • Assessment: This highlights potential deficiencies in equipment and training within the Estonian military, a NATO member. The report should be treated with caution, given its origin from a Russian source.

10. "Italmas" Drone (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

    • Basurin o glavnom: The text mentions a new Russian kamikaze drone called "Italmas" (product number 54), developed by "Aeroscan".
    • Assessment: This is a Russian claim and requires independent verification.

11. Drone Attack on Krasnodar and Afipsky Oil Refinery (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): TsaplienkoUkraineFights: Reports drone attacks in Krasnodar and on the Afipsky Oil Refinery. Notes that the refinery has a capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and is strategically important for supplying fuel to Russian military equipment.

    • Assessment: This claim requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would represent a successful deep strike capability by Ukrainian forces, targeting critical Russian oil refining infrastructure.

12. Air Raid Alerts Lifted (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

    • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration: Air raid alerts lifted in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and other regions.
    • Assessment: This indicates that the immediate threat of air attacks in these regions has passed, but vigilance should remain high.

13. Russian Diplomat Threats (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

    • TASS: Reports that Maria Zakharova claimed Russian diplomats are facing "colossal pressure" and threats of violence.
    • Assessment: This is a statement from a Russian official, and should be treated with caution. It could be an attempt to deflect criticism of Russian actions and portray Russia as a victim.

14. Russian Propaganda on Social Media (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED)

    • 46th Airmobile Brigade: Video promotion for their new project.
    • Assessment: The blending of military and religious imagery suggests a strategic effort to legitimize the conflict from a moral and spiritual perspective.

15. Espionage Claims (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

    • Office of the Prosecutor General: Reports the exposure of a psychotherapist and his accomplice, a deacon of the Kharkiv Diocese of the UOC (MP), in Kharkiv for allegedly passing information about the location of Ukrainian defenders to the enemy. The doctor is also accused of justifying Russian aggression. The suspects have been detained.
    • Assessment: This indicates ongoing efforts to counter espionage within Ukraine. The involvement of a medical professional and a religious figure highlights the potential for infiltration of various sectors of society.

Updated Situation Summary

• Continued Intense Shelling of Nikopol Area (CONFIRMED): Russian forces are using a variety of weapons to target civilian infrastructure in the Nikopol area, causing widespread damage.
• Claims of Russian Advances (UNCLEAR): Russian sources claim significant territorial gains, but these require independent verification.
• Sumy and Kramatorsk/Kostiantynivka Attacks Confirmed as War Crimes Investigations (CONFIRMED): Official investigations are underway into the recent attacks on Sumy, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka, confirming civilian casualties and damage and classifying them as potential war crimes.
• Potential Deep Strikes into Russia (UNCLEAR): Reports of drone attacks on Krasnodar and a key oil refinery, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation and demonstrate Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.
• Diplomatic and Political Developments (REPORTED/UNCLEAR): Reports of Xi Jinping's planned attendance at the Victory Day parade in Moscow and a potential meeting between Zelensky and Harris highlight ongoing diplomatic activity. Russian claims of threats against diplomats require scrutiny.
• Espionage and Counterintelligence (REPORTED): The arrest of a doctor and a deacon for alleged espionage underscores the ongoing threat of internal subversion.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain EXTREME VIGILANCE for Air and Missile Attacks (HIGHEST PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across Ukraine, given the ongoing threat of missile and drone attacks.

2. Address Implications of Russian Espionage Efforts (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Launch counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize potential Russian informants within Ukraine.
   • Reinforce security protocols around sensitive military and government installations.
   • Enhance public awareness campaigns to educate citizens about the risks of collaborating with Russian intelligence and to encourage reporting of suspicious activity.

3. Verify and Respond to Claims of Russian Deep Strikes (HIGH PRIORITY): Gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the reported drone attacks on Krasnodar and the Afipsky Oil Refinery.

4. Counteract Enemy Propaganda (High Priority): Launch an information campaign countering claims regarding EU plans to seize Russian tankers, or threats against Russian Diplomats.

5. Address Implications of Widespread Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Assess the effectiveness of current air defense strategies in light of the large-scale drone attacks.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
   • Explore options for increasing the quantity and effectiveness of air defense systems, including electronic warfare countermeasures.

6. Exploit Success of Drone Interceptions (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

7. Support Efforts to Acquire EW-Resistant Drones (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

8. Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

9. Reinforce Logistical Routes (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

10. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

11. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

12. Address Espionage Concerns (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

13. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

14. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

15. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.

16. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.

17. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains highly dynamic. The confirmed attacks on civilian areas and the ongoing investigations into potential war crimes underscore the human cost of the conflict. Claims of Russian advances and potential Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia require urgent verification. The reported diplomatic activity and espionage cases highlight the multifaceted nature of the conflict, extending beyond the battlefield.