Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 07:38 UTC

Major Updates (07:08 UTC - 07:38 UTC)

1. Russian Intelligence Seeking Ukrainian Informants (RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Russian military intelligence is actively soliciting information from Ukrainian citizens, offering financial rewards for details on Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU), Security Service (GUR), National Guard (NGU), foreign fighters, and any entities serving the "occupational government of Zelensky." They emphasize the safety of informants using their specific Telegram bot (@oko_saurona2_robot).
   • Assessment: This is a significant development, indicating a concerted effort by Russian intelligence to infiltrate Ukrainian society and gather operational intelligence. The offer of financial rewards suggests they are targeting individuals motivated by economic hardship or disillusionment with the Ukrainian government. This represents an escalation in espionage and information warfare.

2. Fundraising for EW-Resistant Drones Continues (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • STERNENKO: Reports that the fundraising campaign for 1,000 EW-resistant FPV drones has reached 1 million hryvnias out of the 17 million goal.
   • Assessment: The continued fundraising highlights the ongoing need for these specialized drones, and the reliance on public support to acquire them.

3. Sumy Drone Attack Aftermath (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • ASTRA: Reports that a Russian drone attack in Sumy damaged five houses and 15 vehicles, injuring one woman (born in 1987). Emergency services responded, and a crisis center was established at School #29.
   • Assessment: Confirms the impact of the recent drone attacks, highlighting civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This aligns with the previously reported drone attacks targeting Sumy.

4. Ukrainian Numbers and Reports (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY SUSPECT): Several sources reported that a total of 83 drones were deployed, 61 were shot down and 22 lost.

• Assessment: These numbers are inflated.

5. Russian Missile Strike on Radar Position (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Сливочный каприз: Reports a Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian radar station position north of Ovcharnoe, approximately 60km from the front line. Includes geolocation coordinates (48.065170, 35.548733) and a video.
   • Assessment: This claim requires independent verification. If confirmed, it would represent a successful deep strike capability by Russian forces, targeting critical Ukrainian air defense infrastructure.

6. EU to Capture Russian Tankers (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • ТАСС: Claims that the EU is preparing a large-scale operation to seize Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea, citing new legislation allowing for the seizure of vessels allegedly causing environmental damage or damaging underwater cables.
   • Assessment: This report from a Russian state media source requires careful scrutiny. While the EU has implemented sanctions against Russia, the claim of a large-scale seizure operation needs independent confirmation. This could be an attempt to portray the EU as aggressive and justify potential Russian actions in the Baltic Sea.

7. Ukrainian Counterattacks to Slow Russian Advance (REPORT, FRENCH SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

• Le Figaro: States that Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in the Kursk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk areas to slow Russian advances.
• Assessment: This aligns with Ukraine attempting to defend those regions, and potentially buy time for negotiations.

8. Ballistic Missile Threat (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports a ballistic missile threat in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • РБК-Україна: Confirms the ballistic missile threat. * Assessment: This represents an escalation in the threat level, as ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept and can carry large payloads.

9. Successful Drone Strike in Sumy Region (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED): TsaplienkoUkraineFights, ASTRA: Video reporting a drone strike in Sumy.

   • Assessment: This indicates a succesful penetration of air defenses.

Updated Situation Summary

• Massive Russian Drone Attack Aftermath (CONFIRMED): While the immediate threat from the large-scale drone attack has subsided, damage assessments are ongoing, particularly in Sumy.
• Russian Espionage Efforts Escalate (CONFIRMED): Russian intelligence is actively recruiting Ukrainian informants, signaling a major push to gather information and undermine Ukrainian operations.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (CONFIRMED): A new ballistic missile threat has emerged in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, requiring immediate air defense readiness.
• Claims of Russian Deep Strikes (UNCLEAR): Unverified reports suggest a Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian radar station deep behind the front lines.
• Potential EU Action Against Russian Tankers (UNCLEAR): Reports of an EU plan to seize Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea need further investigation.
• Focus on EW-Resistant Drones (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian efforts to acquire and deploy EW-resistant drones continue.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain EXTREME VIGILANCE for Air and Missile Attacks (HIGHEST PRIORITY):

   • Prioritize air defense readiness in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to the immediate ballistic missile threat.
   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across Ukraine, given the ongoing threat of missile and drone attacks.

2. Address Implications of Russian Espionage Efforts (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Launch counterintelligence operations to identify and neutralize potential Russian informants within Ukraine.
   • Reinforce security protocols around sensitive military and government installations.
   • Enhance public awareness campaigns to educate citizens about the risks of collaborating with Russian intelligence and to encourage reporting of suspicious activity.

3. Verify and Respond to Claims of Russian Deep Strikes (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the reported strike on the radar station near Ovcharnoe. If confirmed, assess the damage and implement measures to mitigate the impact on Ukrainian air defense capabilities.

4. Counteract Enemy Propaganda (High Priority): Launch an information campaign countering claims regarding EU plans to seize Russian tankers.

5. Address Implications of Widespread Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Assess the effectiveness of current air defense strategies in light of the large-scale drone attacks.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
   • Explore options for increasing the quantity and effectiveness of air defense systems, including electronic warfare countermeasures.

6. Exploit Success of Drone Interceptions (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

7. Support Efforts to Acquire EW-Resistant Drones (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

8. Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

9. Reinforce Logistical Routes (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

10. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

    • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

11. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

12. Address Espionage Concerns (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

13. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

14. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

15. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.

16. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.

17. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is rapidly evolving, with the new ballistic missile threat requiring immediate attention. The confirmed Russian espionage efforts represent a significant long-term challenge to Ukrainian security. Conflicting claims and reports require urgent verification to ensure accurate situational awareness.