General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, RBC-Ukraine, Operativnyi ZSU, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Confirmed that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 61 out of 83 drones launched by Russia overnight (starting 21:00 on February 9). The drones included Shahed-type attack drones and "dummy" drones of various types. The attacks originated from multiple locations in Russia: Kursk, Orel, Millerovo, Shatalovo, Bryansk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Assessment:This confirms a major, widespread drone attack by Russia targeting multiple regions across Ukraine. The high number of drones (83) indicates a significant effort to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. The successful interception of 61 drones demonstrates substantial Ukrainian air defense capability, but the remaining 22, though reported as "locationally lost" without causing damage, still represent a threat that penetrated defenses. This is a major escalation in the drone war. The use of "dummy" drones is a tactic to deplete air defense resources and confuse radar systems.
Drone Attack Aftermath (KURSK REGION, CONFIRMED):
Два майора: Reports that a 33-year-old woman in the village of Maly Kamenets, Bolshoy Soldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia, was injured by a drone-dropped munition. She sustained shrapnel wounds of moderate severity and was taken to a hospital.
Assessment: Confirms a Ukrainian drone attack within Russia, causing civilian casualties. This aligns with the overall pattern of increased drone attacks on both sides.
Russian Drone Attack Directions (CONFIRMED):
The attack targeted several regions:
Kyivska
Kharkivska
Poltavska
Sumska
Chernihivska
Kirovohradska
Khmelnytska
Dnipropetrovska
Zaporizka
Mykolaivska
Khersonska
Assessment: This indicates that the attack was widespread and targeted multiple regions across the country.
Claim of Fanasivka Recapture (RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Claims, with video, that Russian forces have "cleaned up" the forested area south of Fanasivka and expelled Ukrainian forces from the village itself. The report also mentions ongoing fighting near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Assessment:This claim is unverified and from a biased source. It requires independent confirmation. If true, it would represent a Russian advance in the Kursk region, but given the ongoing conflicting reports, it's crucial to treat this with skepticism until further evidence emerges.
Continued Fighting, Dnipro and Kherson Regions (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine: Reports continued shelling of settlements in the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions, with nearly 300 artillery strikes in the past 24 hours. Also reports 450 FPV drone strikes, including Lancet-type drones, and nearly 200 fragmentation munition drops. Additionally, over 20 guided aerial bombs (KABs) and 34 unguided aerial rockets (NARs) were used against settlements in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.
Assessment: Reports intense fighting on the southern part of the front.
Summary of Enemy Losses (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY SUSPECT):
Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine: Claims 45 deaths, a destroyed anti-aircraft missile system (Buk-M3), 6 artillery systems, 4 mortars, 16 vehicles, 11 attack drones (Shahed-136), 6 reconnaissance drones (Zala, Supercam, Orlan-10), and others.
Assessment:These figures are almost certainly inflated for propaganda purposes.
Ukrainian Request for "EW-Resistant" Drones (UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
STERNENKO: Announces a fundraising campaign to purchase 1,000 "EW-resistant" FPV drones, specifically designed to counter Russian electronic warfare systems. The drones are described as having automatic frequency switching capabilities. The stated need is 17 million hryvnias.
Assessment: Confirms Ukrainian efforts to adapt to Russian electronic warfare and enhance drone capabilities. This highlights a key technological battleground in the conflict.
Updated Situation Summary
Massive Russian Drone Attack (CONFIRMED): Russia launched a major drone attack across Ukraine, with 83 drones, including attack and dummy drones. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 61, but 22 penetrated defenses.
Civilian Casualties in Russia (CONFIRMED): A Ukrainian drone attack in the Kursk region injured a civilian woman.
Contested Claims in Kursk Region (UNCLEAR): Russian sources claim to have recaptured Fanasivka, but this remains unverified and requires confirmation.
Intense Fighting in Southern Ukraine (CONFIRMED): Ukrainian sources report continued heavy shelling and drone attacks in multiple southern regions.
Focus on EW-Resistant Drones (CONFIRMED): Ukraine is actively seeking to acquire drones capable of operating effectively in a contested electronic warfare environment.
Continued Air and Missile Threats (CONFIRMED): Air Force reports guided bombs being used against Sumy and tactical aviation activity threatening frontline areas.
Drone Activity in Krasnodar (CONFIRMED):
The video indicates the presence of drones.
The battle for Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk continues. (UNCLEAR): Both sides are claiming to have made progress.
Updated Recommendations
Maintain EXTREME VIGILANCE for Air and Missile Attacks (HIGHEST PRIORITY):
Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across Ukraine, especially in areas targeted by recent drone and missile attacks, including Sumy and regions threatened by tactical aviation.
Verify and Respond to Claims Regarding Fanasivka (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the Russian claim of capturing Fanasivka. This is crucial for understanding the situation in the Kursk region.
Address Implications of Widespread Drone Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):
Assess the effectiveness of current air defense strategies in light of the large-scale drone attacks.
Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
Explore options for increasing the quantity and effectiveness of air defense systems, including electronic warfare countermeasures.
Exploit Success of Drone Interceptions (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Analyze recovered drone components to gather intelligence on Russian drone technology, tactics, and vulnerabilities.
Support Efforts to Acquire EW-Resistant Drones (HIGH PRIORITY):
Assess the capabilities of the proposed drones and their potential impact on operations.
Prioritize the deployment of EW-resistant drones to areas experiencing intense electronic warfare.
Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts from previous recommendation.
Reinforce Logistical Routes (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts from previous recommendation.
Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts from previous recommendation.
Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts.
Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue efforts.
Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.
Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.
All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains highly dynamic and characterized by intense fighting, particularly in the south, and a significant escalation in drone warfare. The large-scale Russian drone attack underscores the ongoing threat to Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians, and the need for robust air defenses. The focus on EW-resistant drones highlights the technological arms race unfolding in this conflict. Conflicting claims regarding territorial control in the Kursk region require urgent verification.
