Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Major Updates (06:08 UTC - 06:38 UTC)

1. Scholz on NATO Membership for Ukraine (CONFIRMED):

   • Operativnyi ZSU reports that German Chancellor Scholz stated that the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership "is not on the agenda." He attributes this to opposition from the US government, stating that existing NATO decisions do not necessitate immediate consideration of Ukraine's membership. Scholz emphasizes the need for security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future attacks.
   • Assessment: This significantly impacts Ukraine's long-term security strategy. It indicates a lack of immediate prospect for NATO membership, highlighting the continued reliance on bilateral security guarantees and support from individual nations. This is a major strategic development.

2. Claimed Progress in US-Led Negotiations (REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • RBC-Ukraine reports that US President Donald Trump claims "progress" in negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This requires extreme skepticism and independent verification. Given Trump's history and the lack of details, this statement could be a political maneuver, an exaggeration, or even outright disinformation. The absence of confirmation from other parties (Russia, Ukraine, other mediators) is critical.

3. Russian Drone Attack on Sumy (CONFIRMED):

   • RBC-Ukraine reports that a Russian drone struck a parking lot in a residential area of Sumy. Cars were set on fire, windows in nearby buildings were shattered, and there is at least one reported injury.
   • Assessment: This confirms ongoing Russian drone attacks targeting Ukrainian cities, even beyond the immediate front lines. The targeting of a civilian area raises concerns about potential escalation and disregard for civilian safety.

4. Afipsky Oil Refinery Attack (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraine, Shef Hayabusa: Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm that a drone attack targeted the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, reporting the fire and its strategic importance for the Russian Military. The refinery has a capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a key role in supplying fuel, especially for military operations in southern Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This confirms the Ukrainian attack on the Afipsky Oil Refinery. The multiple independent reports, combined with the specific details about the refinery's capacity and role, significantly increase the confidence in this event. This represents a significant Ukrainian strike capability, targeting critical infrastructure deep within Russia.

5. Krasnodar Drone Attack and Damage (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • RBC-Ukraine, Sever.Realii: Report a drone attack in Krasnodar, Russia, with damage to a residential complex ("Central"). Russian authorities claim the drone was shot down, and debris caused the damage. Reports also mention drone interceptions in other regions (Bryansk, Rostov, Kursk, Belgorod, and occupied Crimea).
   • Assessment: Confirms drone activity and air defense operations within Russia. Even if unintentional, the damage to a residential complex highlights the risks associated with air defense operations in populated areas.

6. Reconnaissance Drone Activity, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast and Zaporizhzhia, with potential air defense operations.
   • Assessment: Indicates ongoing surveillance by Russian drones, suggesting preparation for potential attacks or gathering intelligence on Ukrainian positions.

7. German Debate on Taurus Missile Supply to Ukraine (CONFIRMED):

   • Два майора: Reports that German politician Friedrich Merz (candidate for Chancellor) advocates for supplying Ukraine with Taurus long-range cruise missiles, while current Chancellor Scholz opposes sending weapons that could strike deep inside Russia.
   • Assessment: Highlights internal political divisions within Germany regarding military aid to Ukraine. The potential supply of Taurus missiles would significantly enhance Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

8. Claimed Liberation of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny: Reports, with video, claims by Russian soldiers from the 51st Guards Army ("Center" group of forces) about the "liberation" of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). The video depicts soldiers describing difficult urban fighting and accusations of Ukrainian "scorched earth" tactics.
   • Assessment: This claim requires extreme caution and independent verification. The source is highly biased. If confirmed, the capture of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk would be a significant Russian advance, but it contradicts previous Ukrainian reports of ongoing fighting in the area.

9. Air Threat Warning, Northeastern Ukraine (CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Warns of activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with the threat of using air-launched weapons against front-line regions.
   • Assessment: Confirms continued air threat in the specified area. Ukrainian air defenses should remain on high alert.

10. Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Ammunition Depot (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports, with video, the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot hidden in a shed in the border area of Sumy Oblast. The attack is claimed to be carried out by a Russian FPV drone after aerial reconnaissance identified the target.
    • Assessment: Requires independent verification. If confirmed, this demonstrates effective Russian drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities.

11. Ukrainian Counter-Crossing Operations, Dvorichna (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ: Reports that Ukrainian forces thwarted three attempts by Russian personnel to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna. The report claims that the crossings were detected early, targeted with fire, and the boats and personnel were "eliminated."
    • Assessment: Requires independent verification. If confirmed, this indicates continued fighting and Ukrainian efforts to prevent Russian advances in the area.

12. Summary of Enemy Losses (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE - HIGHLY SUSPECT):

    • ОТУ "Харків": Presents an image claiming significant Russian losses from February 24, 2022, to February 10, 2025.
    • Assessment: These figures are almost certainly inflated for propaganda purposes. Independent verification is impossible, and the numbers should be treated with extreme skepticism.

13. Rybars Report (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• The source details the drones attacks, and their consequences in Russia.
• Reports of attacks in the Kharkiv and Kursk regions.
• Reports of heavy battles around the Chasiv Yar region.
• Assessment: This is a well-documented and valuable report, detailing much activity and damage.

Updated Situation Summary

• NATO Membership for Ukraine Off the Table (CONFIRMED): German Chancellor Scholz's statement confirms that Ukraine's NATO membership is not currently under consideration, due to US opposition. This is a major strategic setback for Ukraine.
• Conflicting Claims on Negotiations (UNCLEAR): Trump's claim of "progress" in negotiations is highly suspect and requires thorough verification.
• Sustained Drone Warfare (CONFIRMED): Confirmed drone attacks on both sides, targeting cities (Sumy, Krasnodar) and critical infrastructure (Afipsky Oil Refinery).
• Afipsky Oil Refinery Attack (CONFIRMED): Confirmed Ukrainian strike on a strategically important oil refinery in Russia.
• Contested Control of Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (UNCLEAR): Conflicting claims regarding control of this key town require independent verification.
• Intense Fighting Across Multiple Fronts (CONFIRMED): Reports confirm ongoing intense fighting in the Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivsk directions, as well as near Kupiansk, Lyman, and Chasiv Yar.
• Continued Air and Missile Threats (CONFIRMED): Air raid alerts and reports of Russian tactical aviation activity indicate ongoing threats.
• Intense fighting in the Kharkiv region continues (CONFIRMED).

Updated Recommendations

1. Address Strategic Implications of NATO Membership Denial (HIGHEST PRIORITY):

   • Develop a revised long-term security strategy that accounts for the lack of immediate NATO membership prospects.
   • Intensify efforts to secure bilateral security guarantees from individual NATO member states and other allies.
   • Explore alternative security arrangements and partnerships.

2. Scrutinize and Counter Trump's Claims on Negotiations (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Seek independent verification of any claimed progress in negotiations.
   • Counter any disinformation or misleading statements that could undermine Ukraine's position.
   • Clarify Ukraine's negotiating position and preconditions for any talks.

3. Verify and Respond to Claims Regarding Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (EXTREME PRIORITY):

   • Gather independent intelligence to confirm or refute the Russian claim of capturing Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. This is crucial for understanding the current battlefield situation.
   • If the Russian claim is false, reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and prepare for further attacks.
   • If the Russian claim is confirmed, assess the impact on the overall defensive line and develop a plan to counter the advance.

4. Maintain EXTREME ALERT for Air and Missile Threats (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense readiness across Ukraine, especially in areas targeted by recent drone and missile attacks.
   • Focus on protecting critical infrastructure (energy facilities, communication networks, etc.).

5. Exploit Success of Afipsky Oil Refinery Attack (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Assess the damage to the refinery and its impact on Russian fuel supplies.
   • Identify other potential targets that could further disrupt Russian military logistics.
   • Continue to develop and enhance long-range strike capabilities.

6. Address Concerns About Conscription and Recruitment (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

7. Counter Disinformation and Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

8. Reinforce Logistical Routes (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

9. Exploit and Counter Russian Propaganda (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Continue efforts from previous recommendation.

10. Investigate and Respond to Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

11. Address Espionage Concerns (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

12. Assess Impact of FSB Activity in Dzerzhynsk (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

13. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity (HIGH PRIORITY): Continue efforts.

14. Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Respond to the escalation of the conflict, and prepare for a larger enemy army.

15. Exploit POW Information (High Priority): Analyze statements.

16. All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains highly volatile and characterized by intense fighting, ongoing drone and missile attacks, and significant strategic developments. The denial of immediate NATO membership for Ukraine necessitates a major reassessment of long-term security strategy. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Afipsky Oil Refinery demonstrates a significant capability, while conflicting claims regarding Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk require urgent clarification. The continued threat of air and missile attacks, coupled with ongoing information warfare, necessitates constant vigilance and adaptation.