Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Major Updates (05:38 UTC - 06:08 UTC)

1. Donetsk City Drone Attack (CONFIRMED):

   • Basurin o glavnom reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the Kyivskyi district of Donetsk city (Shakhtyorskaya Square), specifically targeting the area near the "Moloko" shopping center (previously attacked on January 10th). The attack involved DIY, single-use kamikaze drones.
   • Damage: Window damage to nine-story residential buildings and a bus stop. A car was also damaged.
   • Casualties: No reported casualties.
   • Assessment: This represents a Ukrainian shift towards using low-cost, improvised drones for attacks deep within Russian-controlled territory. The targeting of a civilian area, even with limited damage, serves a psychological purpose. The repeated targeting of the "Moloko" area is notable.

2. Ukrainian Drone-on-Drone Engagement (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to shoot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone near Kolodezi, Kharkiv Oblast, using a newly developed "Frankenstein" drone. The Ukrainian drone is described as being hastily assembled with basic materials and equipped with a remote detonator.
   • The Russian drone operator successfully evaded the attack.
   • Assessment: This confirms Ukrainian efforts to develop counter-drone capabilities using improvised means. The use of a remote detonator on the Ukrainian drone is a significant development. The incident highlights the increasing importance of drone warfare and counter-drone measures.

3. Afipsky Oil Refinery and Krasnodar Drone Attacks (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO reports drone attacks on the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Kuban, with reports of a fire. It also claims damage to a residential complex in Krasnodar due to Russian air defense activity.
   • The mayor has requested citizens report debris and not touch it.
   • Assessment: These reports require independent verification. If confirmed, they represent a significant Ukrainian strike capability, targeting critical infrastructure deep within Russia. The reported damage to a residential complex in Krasnodar, even if unintentional, highlights the risks associated with air defense operations in populated areas.

4. Humanitarian Aid Delivery to Russian Unit (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • "Narodnaya militsiya DNR" reports a delivery of humanitarian aid (medical supplies, equipment, personal care items, pet food) to the medical unit of the 137th Separate Assault Brigade ("Ural Brigade") by several charitable organizations.
   • Assessment: This confirms the ongoing need for logistical support to Russian-affiliated forces, particularly for medical care. The video serves a propaganda purpose, showcasing public support and unit affiliation.

5. Ukrainian General Staff Operational Report (CONFIRMED):

   • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides a detailed report on the previous 24 hours of combat:

     • 99 combat clashes.
     • Russian forces conducted 2 missile strikes, 87 airstrikes (138 guided bombs), over 5,800 shellings (133 from MLRS), and 2,427 kamikaze drone attacks.
     • Airstrikes targeted multiple locations across Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
     • Ukrainian forces hit a Buk air defense system, 7 areas of personnel and military equipment concentration, 5 artillery systems, and a Russian command post.
     • Fighting is reported in the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivsk directions.
     • Intense fighting (18 attacks repelled) and shelling reported in the Kursk region.
     • No offensive actions reported in the Siversk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Pridniprovsk directions.
     • Claimed Russian losses: 1170 personnel, 9 tanks, 16 AFVs, 35 artillery systems, 3 air defense systems, 137 UAVs, 109 vehicles, and 1 unit of special equipment.

   • Assessment: This report confirms widespread and intense fighting across multiple fronts. The reported use of 138 guided bombs by Russia is particularly significant. The claimed Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets, if accurate, demonstrate continued operational capability.

6. Kursk Region Activity (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that Russian forces have not had activity near the area, and the Ukrainian troops are building forces and supplies.
   • Assessment: This report suggests an attempt from Russian forces to prevent activity on the front line, with the use of countermeasures.

7. Fighterbomber's Report (RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • The source reports that the Russian Su-25 plane, and the Mi-8 helicopter were damaged.
   • The report describes the attack as using MANPADs.
   • Assessment: This confirms the attack on the aircrafts from the ground.

Updated Situation Summary

• Donetsk City Drone Attack: Confirmed Ukrainian use of improvised drones targeting a civilian area.
• Ukrainian Drone-on-Drone Engagement: Confirmed Ukrainian efforts to develop counter-drone capabilities.
• Claimed Attacks on Russian Infrastructure: Requires independent verification, but suggests potential Ukrainian long-range strike capability.
• Widespread Fighting: Confirmed across multiple fronts, with high intensity in the Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivsk directions.
• Kursk Region: Suggests an attempt to prevent activity with countermeasures.
• Su-25 and Mi-8 Attack: Confirmed with the use of MANPADs.

Updated Recommendations

1. Investigate Donetsk Drone Attack (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the origin and capabilities of the improvised drones used in the Donetsk attack.
   • Assess the potential for further attacks of this nature and develop countermeasures.

2. Assess Ukrainian Counter-Drone Capabilities (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence on the "Frankenstein" drone and other Ukrainian counter-drone systems.
   • Evaluate the threat posed by these systems to Russian air assets.

3. Verify Claims of Attacks on Russian Infrastructure (EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Independently verify the reports of attacks on the Afipsky Oil Refinery and damage in Krasnodar.
   • Assess the impact of these attacks, if confirmed, on Russian military capabilities and infrastructure.

4. Maintain High Alert in Areas Targeted by Airstrikes (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Based on the Ukrainian General Staff report, maintain high alert and reinforce defenses in areas targeted by Russian airstrikes, particularly in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.

5. Analyze Ukrainian General Staff Report (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Cross-reference the Ukrainian General Staff report with other intelligence sources to assess the accuracy of the claims.
   • Identify any discrepancies or potential information operations.

6. Kursk Region (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Verify Russian claims, and increase defenses in the region.
• Prepare for enemy attacks.
• Increase countermeasures.

7. All Previous Recommendations Remain in Effect: All prior recommendations, especially those concerning Nikopol, Sverdlikovo, Kramatorsk, and the tanker Koala, remain critical.