Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Major Updates (05:08 UTC - 05:38 UTC)

1. Nikopol Under Attack (CONFIRMED):

   • Multiple Ukrainian sources (Serhiy Lysak, Oleksandr Vilkul, and RBC-Ukraine) report that Nikopol and the surrounding areas (Marhanetska and Myrivska communities) were attacked overnight and in the early morning. The attacks involved Grad MLRS, heavy artillery, kamikaze drones, and dropped munitions from UAVs.
   • Damage: Two industrial enterprises, one private house destroyed, 17 private houses damaged, two five-story buildings damaged, 12 outbuildings damaged, a shop, cars, gas pipelines, and power lines were damaged.
   • Casualties: No casualties reported.
   • Air Defense: Ukrainian air defenses ("East" Air Command) shot down 5 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Vilkul confirms 5 drones shot down over Kryvyi Rih.
   • Assessment: This represents a continuation of Russian attacks on the Nikopol region, targeting both industrial and civilian infrastructure. The use of multiple attack methods (MLRS, artillery, drones) demonstrates a multi-pronged approach. The lack of reported casualties is positive, but the damage to civilian infrastructure is significant.

2. Kramatorsk Strike (CONFIRMED):

   • "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports a Russian strike on Kramatorsk, near Pushkin Park, overnight. The target is claimed to be workshops used for repairing military equipment. An accompanying video shows a fire and debris.
   • Assessment: Confirms a Russian strike on Kramatorsk, targeting what is likely a military support facility. The video provides visual confirmation of the strike, but the extent of the damage is unclear. This is the first report today on the front line to the North of Chasiv Yar and Dzerzhinsk, indicating that the fighting is still happening.

3. Russian Advances near Sverdlikovo (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • "Slichniy Kapriz" claims that Russian assault units advanced up to 600 meters along the Korenevo-Sudzha road and occupied new positions in the northern part of Sverdlikovo. It also claims Ukrainian forces are shelling the new Russian positions.
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification. If true, it suggests a minor Russian tactical advance in the Kursk region border area. The claimed distance of 600 meters is significant in positional warfare.

4. Ukrainian Combat Losses (REPORTED):

   • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and "Operativniy ZSU" report significant Russian losses in the past 24 hours: 1170 personnel, 9 tanks, 16 armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), 35 artillery systems, and 3 air defense systems.
   • Assessment: These are claimed losses and require independent verification. If accurate, these figures suggest a high level of attrition for Russian forces. The reported destruction of 3 air defense systems is particularly notable.

5. Shahed Drone Interceptions in Mykolaiv Oblast (CONFIRMED):

   • RBC-Ukraine reports that 4 Shahed-131/136 drones were shot down over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight.
   • Assessment: Confirms continued Russian use of Shahed drones, and successful Ukrainian air defense actions in the south.

6. Koala Tanker Incident Investigation (CONFIRMED):

   • Sever.Realii and ASTRA report that Finland has begun its own investigation into the incident involving the tanker Koala in the port of Ust-Luga. Finnish border guard aircraft have been deployed to search for oil spills in the Gulf of Finland, but none were found as of Sunday evening. The Finnish Prime Minister stated that Finland has increased its preparedness for oil spills.
   • The tanker is reportedly part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent sanctions.
   • Assessment: This confirms a serious incident involving a Russian tanker, raising environmental concerns and highlighting Finland's proactive response. The "shadow fleet" connection adds a geopolitical dimension.

7. Xi Jinping Accepts Invitation (CONFIRMED):

• TASS, Dva Mayora report that Xi Jinping will visit Moscow for Victory Day celebrations.
• Assessment: Significant geopolitical development.

8. Other Updates:

• There are reports of new regulations to prevent cyber attacks in Russia (TASS).
• There is a report about a meeting between Zelenskiy and Vance (Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny)

9. Irrelevant Updates:

• Russia will continue to supply oil to India.
• Rybar is requesting donations.
• Rybar released reports.
• WarGonzo report on the front line situation.
• Information regarding scams.
• A report is made about Mstislav Vsevolodovich Keldysh.
• A report about a commentator's injury.

Updated Situation Summary

• Continued Attacks in Nikopol: Confirmed Russian attacks on the Nikopol area, using multiple weapon systems and targeting both industrial and civilian infrastructure.
• Kramatorsk Strike: Confirmed Russian strike targeting a likely military support facility.
• Claimed Russian Advance near Sverdlikovo: Requires independent verification.
• High Claimed Russian Losses: Ukrainian reports of significant Russian casualties and equipment losses.
• Finnish Investigation of Tanker Incident: Confirms environmental concerns and highlights Finland's response.
• Xi Jinping to Visit Moscow: Confirmed for Victory Day, a major geopolitical development.
• Air Attacks Repelled: More drones have been neutralized over Mykolaiv Oblast.

Updated Recommendations

1. Maintain High Alert in Nikopol and Surrounding Areas (EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Given the continued and multi-pronged attacks, maintain heightened security measures in Nikopol and the surrounding areas.
   • Prioritize air defense systems and anti-drone measures.
   • Prepare for potential further attacks on infrastructure.
   • Ensure humanitarian aid is available for affected civilians.

2. Verify Russian Claims near Sverdlikovo (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify the claim of a Russian advance near Sverdlikovo.
   • Gather intelligence on troop movements and control of territory in the area.

3. Assess Damage in Kramatorsk (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather intelligence to assess the extent of damage to the targeted facility in Kramatorsk.
   • Determine the impact on Ukrainian military support capabilities in the area.

4. Monitor for Potential Oil Spills (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Continue to monitor the situation regarding the tanker Koala and any potential oil spills in the Gulf of Finland.
   • Coordinate with Finnish authorities and international partners to assess environmental risks.

5. Analyze Ukrainian Claims of Russian Losses (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Attempt to independently verify the Ukrainian claims of significant Russian losses.
   • Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to assess the accuracy of the figures.

6. Assess Implications of Xi Jinping's Visit (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Analyze the potential implications of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow for the ongoing conflict.
   • Consider the potential for increased Chinese support for Russia.

7. All Previous Recommendations Remain in Effect: The highest priorities remain reinforcing defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, verifying Russian claims near Donetsk and Makiivka, and monitoring Russian drone capabilities. All other previous recommendations remain crucial.