Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 05:07 UTC
Major Updates (04:38 UTC - 05:07 UTC)
Intense Russian Strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (CONFIRMED):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (05:05 UTC): Reports 401 Russian strikes across 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast within the last 24 hours. This includes:
24 airstrikes on Kam'yans'ke, Stepnohirs'k, P'yatykhatky, Luk'yanivs'ke, Prymors'ke, and Huliaipole.
187 drone attacks on Kam'yans'ke, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Zelene, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
5 MLRS attacks on Huliaipole, Novodanylivka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
185 artillery strikes on Kam'yans'ke, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Omel'nyk, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
15 reports of damage to apartments and private houses. No civilian casualties reported.
Assessment: This represents a significant escalation of Russian offensive activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The sheer volume of strikes (401) across multiple settlements indicates a concerted effort to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and potentially prepare for ground advances. The targeting of civilian infrastructure is notable, although the reported lack of casualties is a positive, but potentially preliminary, assessment. The use of a variety of attack methods (airstrikes, drones, MLRS, artillery) demonstrates a multi-pronged approach.
Over 150 Ukrainian Air Attacks Thwarted near Donetsk and Makiivka (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
TASS (04:52 UTC): Reports that over 150 Ukrainian air attacks were "thwarted" over Donetsk and Makiivka in the past week, according to the FSB of the DPR. A video shows a drone modified to carry explosives.
Assessment: This claim, if true, suggests intense Ukrainian efforts to target these areas, likely with drones and possibly other air assets. The video confirms the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on drones. The claim requires independent verification, but, if accurate, it indicates a significant and ongoing air threat in the Donetsk region.
Russian Drone Operator Training (CONFIRMED):
Dnevnik Desantnika (05:02 UTC): Shows video of Russian Special Operations Forces ("SSO Byzantium") drone operators training with VOG drops on the frame of an armored vehicle, under strong wind conditions.
Assessment: Confirms ongoing Russian efforts to enhance drone capabilities. Training in adverse conditions (strong wind) indicates a focus on operational readiness in various environments.
Russian Elimination of Ukrainian Remnants near Kursk (CLAIMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (05:03 UTC): Shows video of drones allegedly eliminating the remnants of Ukrainian infantry that were trying to go on a counteroffensive in Kursk region. The video shows an aerial view of an open-topped structure, likely a shelter of some kind. Inside, there are a group of people, and some cylinder-like objects. Later footage shows a large explosion occuring near the structure.
Assessment: While the video does show an explosion, it's impossible to independently confirm the targets, as the video is very vague and unclear.
Scholz and Merz Debate German Support for Ukraine (REPORTED):
RBC-Ukraine (04:43 UTC): Reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his challenger Friedrich Merz debated aid to Ukraine in their first televised debate. Scholz reiterated Germany's position as Europe's largest supporter of Ukraine. Merz called for the delivery of TAURUS long-range missiles, which the current government opposes.
Assessment: This highlights the ongoing political debate within Germany regarding the level and type of support for Ukraine. Merz's stance suggests potential future shifts in policy if the opposition wins the upcoming election.
Other Information(IRRELEVANT):
TASS (04:40 UTC): Tajikistan is actively participating in the investigation of the terrorist attack in "Crocus", the Russian ambassador in Dushanbe Semyon Grigoriev reported in an interview with TASS.
Moscow News (04:41 UTC): 💰 In January, banks approved only 5% of applications for consumer loans - this is a record low.
Moscow News (05:01 UTC): ❤️ 70% of Russians believe in love.
TASS (05:07 UTC): Sitronics Electro plans to develop a network of charging stations for electric vehicles in the Moscow region.
Updated Situation Summary
Major Escalation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Confirmed intense Russian strikes (401 in 24 hours) across multiple settlements, using a variety of weapons.
Continued Drone Warfare: Both sides are actively using drones for attacks and reconnaissance. Russia claims to have thwarted over 150 air attacks near Donetsk and Makiivka. Russian forces are training drone operators in adverse conditions.
Political Debate in Germany: The debate between Scholz and Merz highlights differing views on providing TAURUS missiles to Ukraine.
Updated Recommendations
Reinforce Defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
*Given the confirmed and significant escalation of Russian strikes, Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast must be reinforced and placed on highest alert.
Prioritize air defense systems and anti-drone measures to counter the multi-pronged attacks.
Disperse forces and assets to minimize the impact of concentrated strikes.
Prepare for potential ground offensives following the bombardment.
Prepare evacuation routes and humanitarian aid.
Verify Russian Claims near Donetsk and Makiivka (HIGH PRIORITY):
Attempt to independently verify the claim of over 150 thwarted Ukrainian air attacks.
Gather intelligence on Ukrainian air operations in the area to assess their effectiveness and potential targets.
Continue to gather intelligence on Russian drone training and tactics, particularly the use of improvised explosive devices.
Develop and deploy countermeasures to mitigate the threat posed by Russian drones.
Assess Potential Impact of German Election (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Monitor the German election campaign and assess the potential impact of a change in government on military aid to Ukraine.
Engage with both government and opposition figures to understand their positions on future support.
Analyze Colonelcassad Video (LOW PRIORITY):
Independently confirm the targets of the video, as the video is very vague and unclear.
All Previous Recommendations Remain in Effect, with Adjusted Priorities: The highest priority is responding to the immediate escalation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Other recommendations related to drone warfare, border security, and information warfare remain crucial.
