Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 03:08 UTC
Major Updates (02:38 UTC - 03:08 UTC)
Drone Interception in Millerovo, Rostov Oblast (CONFIRMED):
TASS: Reports the interception of drones in the Millerovo district of Rostov Oblast, Russia. No casualties or damage reported on the ground.
Assessment:This confirms Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory, extending beyond the previously reported Kursk Oblast incursions. While no damage is reported, it signifies an attempt to strike deeper into Russia, demonstrating capability and intent.
Russian Claim of FPV Drone Strikes in Kursk Border Region (REPORTED, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
TASS: Reports, with accompanying video, that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed Ukrainian military equipment in the Kursk border region using FPV drones. The video shows drone footage with significant signal interference, depicting a snow-covered landscape, moving vehicles (likely military), and a wooded area. Thermal imagery is used in the latter part.
Assessment:This reinforces the previously reported intense fighting in the Kursk region and adds a new dimension: claimed Russian use of FPV drones for offensive operations in this area. The video, while of poor quality due to interference, provides some visual evidence, but independent verification is still needed. The interference itself suggests active electronic warfare.
US Vice President to Meet with Zelensky (CONFIRMED):
RBK-Ukraine: Reports that US Vice President J.D. Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference (February 14-16).
Assessment:This is a significant diplomatic development, demonstrating continued high-level US engagement with Ukraine. The timing is crucial, given the ongoing conflict and debates about US aid.
Air Attack Threat for Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (CONFIRMED):
Ukrainian Air Force / RBK-Ukraine: Reports a threat of aerial attacks (likely guided bombs - KABs) for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and confirmed launches of KABs targeting Donetsk Oblast.
Assessment:This confirms the continued threat of Russian air attacks, expanding the area of concern to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The use of guided bombs continues to be a major threat.
Propaganda Leaflets and PSYOPS, Pokrovsk Direction (REPORTED, IMAGE & VIDEO EVIDENCE):
Colonelcassad: Reports that soldiers of the "Siberian Association" are offering Ukrainian soldiers of the 25th Airborne Brigade the chance to surrender. Several images and a video were posted. One image is of a poster questioning the trust in the Ukrainian government. The second image shows a Ukrainian 'wanted' poster. The video shows a Russian soldier preparing a drone to disseminate propaganda leaflets. Drone footage shows a destroyed Ukrainian village, and trench systems.
Assessment: The messages point to a psychological operation. This points to continued intense fighting.
Debate between Scholz and Merz (IRRELEVANT):
TASS: Reports that the debates haven't revealed a winner.
Assessment:This is irrelevant to the situation.
Updated Situation Summary
Expanding Drone Warfare: Confirmed Ukrainian drone activity targeting Rostov Oblast, Russia, demonstrates an expanding scope of drone operations. Russian claims of FPV drone strikes in Kursk Oblast add another layer to the drone war.
Continued Air Attack Threat: Confirmed threats of air attacks, including guided bombs, extend to Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, highlighting the persistent danger of Russian air power.
Kursk Region Remains Hotspot: The Russian MoD's claim of destroying Ukrainian equipment with FPV drones reinforces the ongoing intensity of fighting in this region.
High-Level Diplomatic Engagement: The upcoming meeting between the US Vice President and President Zelensky underscores continued international support for Ukraine.
Propaganda and PSYOPS: The images and videos show a continuation of propaganda.
Updated Recommendations
All previous recommendations remain in place, with the following additions/emphasis:
ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES IN LIGHT OF ROSTOV OBLAST INCIDENT (HIGH PRIORITY):
Analyze the implications of the successful drone penetration into Rostov Oblast.
Assess the range, payload, and targeting capabilities demonstrated by this attack.
Adjust air defense strategies to counter similar threats in other regions of Russia and occupied territories.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF FPV DRONE STRIKES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):
Attempt to independently verify the claimed FPV drone strikes using other intelligence sources.
Analyze the video footage further, despite the interference, to extract any additional information.
Assess the potential impact of Russian FPV drone capabilities on Ukrainian defensive positions in the Kursk region.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS IN DNIPROPETROVSK AND DONETSK OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Ensure air defense systems are fully operational and on high alert.
Provide early warning to civilian populations and military units in threatened areas.
Continue to deploy and enhance electronic warfare capabilities to counter guided bombs.
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS RELATED TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Pay close attention to any statements or agreements made during the conference that could impact the military situation.
Assess the implications of the meeting between the US Vice President and President Zelensky.
COUNTER PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Develop counter-narratives, counter-intelligence and messaging to combat the effects of the propaganda.
All other recommendations from previous reports remain valid and in effect. The expanding drone war, the persistent air attack threat, and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region require immediate and continuous attention.
