Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 10, 2025, 02:38 UTC

Major Updates (02:08 UTC - 02:38 UTC)

1. Primorye Traffic Accident Cause (IRRELEVANT TO UKRAINE CONFLICT):

   • TASS: Reports the cause of the previously reported traffic accident in Primorye (Russian Far East) was a trailer skid.
   • Assessment: This has no impact on the military situation in Ukraine.

2. Destruction of Two Ukrainian Armored Vehicles (REPORTED):

   • TASS: Reports that Russian artillery destroyed two Ukrainian armored infantry vehicles with troops west of Kurakhove (Donetsk Oblast).
   • Assessment: This is a tactical development that, if confirmed, adds to the reports of Russian pressure and claimed Ukrainian losses in the Kurakhove direction. It reinforces the overall picture of intense fighting in this area. This report supports the previous report (01:55:22 UTC) of the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point in the same area.

Updated Situation Summary

The major changes relate to the situation around Kurakhove, where further Russian claims of Ukrainian losses have been made. The core strategic situation remains the same:

• Ukrainian Advances Confirmed (EXTREME PRIORITY): The ISW report and accompanying maps confirm Ukrainian advances near Vovchansk and, most significantly, within Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. This represents a major escalation and a shift in the conflict's scope.
• Ongoing Russian Advances (HIGH PRIORITY): Confirmed Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka) indicate continued offensive pressure. The Kurakhove area is seeing intensifying action.
• Intense Fighting in Multiple Regions: The ISW maps visually confirm intense fighting across multiple frontlines, particularly in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts.
• Drone Warfare Continues: Reports of a destroyed Ukrainian UAV control point and a claimed failed Ukrainian counterattack (with thermal imagery) highlight the ongoing importance of drone warfare.
• IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT TO KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains a major concern.
• EXPANDED AIR THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY): The threat of guided bomb attacks persists.

Updated Recommendations

All previous recommendations remain in place, with the following addition/emphasis:

• VERIFY AND ASSESS CLAIMS OF DESTROYED UKRAINIAN ARMOR NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY):
  • Gather independent intelligence to confirm the reported destruction of the two Ukrainian armored vehicles.
  • Assess the impact of these reported losses on Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the Kurakhove area.
  • If confirmed, adjust defensive deployments and resource allocation as needed.

All other recommendations from the 02:08 UTC report, and the accumulated recommendations from previous reports, remain valid and in effect. The situation in Kursk Oblast remains the highest priority, requiring immediate attention and verification. The increasing claims of Russian successes around Kurakhove warrant heightened attention and verification.